Iranian ADs
Those who followed my posts during the war were kept informed about the advances in Iranian air defenses. These systems took time to organize but continued to evolve throughout the conflict.
Given Iran’s geography, no one expected them to fully prevent Israeli and US attacks, but losses gradually increased, and I would argue there is still a lot to be explained, especially regarding friendly fire incidents and the so-called “mechanical problems.”
Since March 10, 2026, I was already warning that Iran had begun gradually deploying more air defenses, including Tor-M1 systems and their domestic version, the Dezful.
I noted that most of the equipment remained hidden in underground facilities.
On March 20–21, I highlighted Iran’s geographic challenges, the strategic use of smaller systems, and the slow, integrated deployment approach:
On April 4, I added that Iran was deploying hunter drones equipped with radars to support short-range systems, and that it “will gradually deploy other options throughout the war.”
In recent days, the Congressional Research Service report to the US Congress confirmed that the United States lost or had 42 aircraft damaged during Operation Epic Fury. I assess that this number is even higher, and ongoing investigations will likely reveal more.
Aircraft losses alone are estimated at around US$ 2.6 billion. My own calculations point to higher figures, including the loss of a second Triton during the truce and severe damage to a second E-3.
As I reported in recent days, the US is now reevaluating its entire set of anti-air tactics and continues to study the changes implemented by Iran.