Pakistan planning massive new power capacity expansion

[R2D2]

To all naysayers .... .. . ... All those inefficient powerplants based on imported fossil fuels ( other than coal ) will be phased out by 2035 and replaced by more efficient ones I e , nuclear, solar and hydel .... All of you who are fretting about oversupply shall know that this oversupply is temporary.......as some of you pointed out ! Transmission lines and grids are our Achilles heel , it needs to be fixed .....stay positive and keep your spirits high .

Why can,t IPPs be forced to leave the country now?

 

[Michael]

In Pakistan, the installed electricity capacity is 48 GW for a population of 257 million. Let's add 50 GW solar to this, taking the total 98 GW. Can you say Pakistanis have no power cuts today?

I don't know the data for Pakistan; I only have data for China.

According to Chinese data, generation accounts for about 40% of electricity costs, while transmission accounts for about 60%. The exact figures are dynamic; this is just a rough estimate.

In other words, the transmission system consumes more capital than the generation system.

And this is the core issue behind Pakistan's power shortage.

China currently has a "national unified electricity trading market." Everyone can buy or sell electricity in this market, and electricity prices fluctuate according to market conditions. This is one of the benefits of a completed power grid.

 

[Prophecy]

There is a concept in economics called sensitivity analysis. In this we determine when does option B become more better than option A.

Let's say today you need 5000 mw. This will cost you say 1 billion dollars. But 10 years later you will need additional 5000 mw which at that time will cost 0.8 billion dollars.
That's the first option.

But second option is that you can directly build capacity of 10000 mw now. Costing 2 billion dollars.


Now tell me which option is best, economically ??? Build full capacity now or go staged ? When does option A become better then option B ?


All the decisions should be made based on these analysis. How much will each option cost. How much economic pressure will each option put us into. Can we afford it now or maybe later. Etc

Our current need is only 30000ish mw. While our installed capacity is 60000 mw. Demand of electricty (from national grid) for agricuture, residential, and indistry have declinded due to soalr. And further declining.


Do we really need to expand the production capacity now ? While we are still enjoying additional capacity of 30000 mw more than our need ?

Everyone knows this. The problem is hoarding kickbacks and corruption.

 

[RealNapster]

These are good options for fully developed nations to consider. They don't apply to developing Pakistan which lacks infrastructure needed for its 800,000 sq km area and it's 257 million people

No. More then them, it is something that developing countries need to consider. USA spend 1 trillion dollars on military. It can waste $60 billion on projects like these to ultimately find out it didn't helped. But Pakistan dont enjoy this luxury. We are still paying CPEC loans back which weren't even $50 billion.

Nothing is being installed in one go now. It'll take 5-10 years to get that capacity, and by that time Pakistan's population would've grown by 20-40 million people by then.

During which everyone will keep adding solar on their rooftops.

Delayed decisions will cost even more.

Let's not forget the debilitating electricity issue that Pakistan faced between 2008-2013 when load-shedding lasted 18-22 hours daily, and segments of the industry shifted to Bangladesh and it's still there.

Nobody wants to return to that sort of situation again.

Today's loadshedding is different then the one experienced by nation in 2008-13. Because that one was due to no new production of electricity . This one is due to constraints and problems in current transmission system and grid. The grid is fcukedup.

Our installed capacity is 48 GW.

You are not considering the solar cells everyone installed on their rooftops. Because government records only consider net metering solar production. It dont consider standalone productions.

In last 2 years, Pakistan imported 29-32 GW capacity worth solar cells. While net metering is only like 4000-5000 mw till date. Consider the other 10000-15000 MW already installed in homes. Just like our own. We dont have net meter. Yet we produce almost 20 unit each day consume it in day time while also charge batteries which are good till 1 am. Then only use wapda between 1 am and 9 am. Hundreds of thousands of homes have such systems.

I must disagree.

I just spoke with my relatives in Pakistan and they said they're facing load shedding even today, on the day Eid.

Because of faulty, old, rusty transmission system. Not because we dont produce much.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... We are still paying CPEC loans back which weren't even $50 billion.

CPEC loans have a 15-year grace period. Payments for any CPEC projects don't start until 2030s.

CPEC Projects (infrastructure under 1.0) amount to $65 billion. That doesn't mean the Government of Pakistan will be repaying $65 billion in loans. A large chunk of the loans under CPEC belongs to private companies / investors.

The total debt Pakistan owes to China is $26 billion out of total external debt of $138 billion. This is not direct loans Pakistan has taken from China but loans that Pakistan took from other places which it then transferred to China so the country didn't have to deal with so many lenders.

During which everyone will keep adding solar on their rooftops.

Great. The more the merrier. But this is not in any way going to replace the grid.

Today's loadshedding is different then the one experienced by nation in 2008-13. Because that one was due to no new production of electricity . This one is due to constraints and problems im curre t transmission system and grid. The grid is ....

You are not considering the solar cells everyone installed on their rooftops. Because government records only consider net metering solar production. It dont consider standalone productions.

In last 2 years, Pakistan imported 29-32 GW capacity worth solar cells. While net metering is only like 4000-5000 mw. Consider the other 10000-15000 MW already installed in homes.

It was reported earlier in the week that Pakistan has imported nearly 55 GW of solar panels in the last 5 years.

During the last fiscal year, 14 GW of solar panels were imported in the first 10 months. This year it's down to 7 GW in the first 10 months.

Imports have reduced by 50%, yet tens of millions of rooftops are still without any solar panels.

What happened?

Just loke our own. We dont have net meter. Yet we produce almost 20 unit each day consume it in day time while also charge batteries which are good till 1 am. Then only use wapda between 1 m and 9 am. Hundreds of thousands of homes have such systems.

I very much doubt it if people will rely on personal solar panels indefinitely. People will only chose this option if they have to.

Sooner or later large solar farms are going to pop up everywhere that people are likely to connect to instead of adding more and more panels on their roofs.

Because of faulty, old, rusty transmission system. Not because we dont produce much.

My understanding is just because Pakistan has 48 GW of "installed capacity", it does not automatically mean "available capacity". In other words, there's no surplus electricity that Pakistan has that it can start exporting to countries like Afghanistan, Iran, etc.

 

[Hazard]

ultimately isn't population growth a good thing? you get more youngsters to support needs of the retirees. Naturally there is a happy medium

Are you being serious? Look at Pakistan, do you see any shortage of manpower in any age group?

If anything, the country is over populated, and majority of the population is living in extreme poverty.

 

[RealNapster]

CPEC loans have a 15-year grace period. Payments for any CPEC projects don't start until 2030s.

CPEC Projects (infrastructure under 1.0) amount to $65 billion. That doesn't mean the Government of Pakistan will be repaying $65 billion in loans. A large chunk of the loans under CPEC belongs to private companies / investors.

The total debt Pakistan owes to China is $26 billion out of total external debt of $138 billion. This is not direct loans Pakistan has taken from China but loans that Pakistan took from other places which it then transferred to China so the country didn't have to deal with so many lenders.


Great. The more the merrier. But this is not in any way going to replace the grid.





It was reported earlier in the week that Pakistan has imported nearly 55 GW of solar panels in the last 5 years.

During the last fiscal year, 14 GW of solar panels were imported in the first 10 months. This year it's down to 7 GW in the first 10 months.

Imports have reduced by 50%, yet tens of millions of rooftops are still without any solar panels.

What happened?


I very much doubt it if people will rely on personal solar panels indefinitely. People will only chose this option if they have to.

Sooner or later large solar farms are going to pop up everywhere that people are likely to connect to instead of adding more and more panels on their roofs.


My understanding is just because Pakistan has 48 GW of "installed capacity", it does not automatically mean "available capacity". In other words, there's no surplus electricity that Pakistan has that it can start exporting to countries like Afghanistan, Iran, etc.

Sorry bro. I dont know why. But you are more concerned about the future while the current is fcukedup. Nobody knows what will happen in Pakistan next year. Here policies, governments, mood of generals keep changing every year. Just take example of solar alone. We had 3 different solar policies in last 3 years. You are planning for 80000 MW electricity production for Pakistan of 2035 while who knows maybe by then our industry is non existing. Just like our agriculture. What if by then not a single house is buying electricity from government becaise of 100 rupees per unit price (the government plan states that these new initiative will reuire additional charges of 44 rupees per unit from consumers ).

You want the future capacity NOW, but the problem is that we cant pay for them atleast between 2026-32. For a developing country like Pakistan it's not a sustainable and efficient way to proceed. Production capacity wise you are good till atleast 5 years. Whatever additional need there will be, will be covered by individual solar systems. Just spend the money on education, health, SMEs.

Let's agree to disagree.

 

[RealNapster]

I very much doubt it if people will rely on personal solar panels indefinitely. People will only chose this option if they have to.

Read this below. Do you still think they will have no motivation or need to install their own solar systems ?

They are expecting the capacity payment increasing close to 40 rupees (per unit- in addition to price of single unit and taxes) if this plan gets executed. If cost overruns and devaluation is modeled that will push only the capacity charges to 45-50 per unit. That alone is equal to the current unit price which is killing everyone.

 

[brazensword]

Pehle wali sai aa nai rai aur lagane chale. Gulberg in Lahore has mandatory loadshedding 2 days a week at least. This is like main Lahore not some backwater Larkana area.

Planners are are madar pidar azad pen yak mafia.

 

[Starlord]

Does this mean " Mulk Tareekh ke nazuk tareen daur se guzar raha hai " ?

 

[RealNapster]

I don't know the data for Pakistan; I only have data for China.

According to Chinese data, generation accounts for about 40% of electricity costs, while transmission accounts for about 60%. The exact figures are dynamic; this is just a rough estimate.

In other words, the transmission system consumes more capital than the generation system.

And this is the core issue behind Pakistan's power shortage.

China currently has a "national unified electricity trading market." Everyone can buy or sell electricity in this market, and electricity prices fluctuate according to market conditions. This is one of the benefits of a completed power grid.

Why Pakistan Keeps Facing Load Shedding Despite Surplus Capacity

Pakistan’s power crisis is a structural failure of integration, not generation capacity

www.thefridaytimes.com

This article lists why we face load shedding (power cuts) despite having double capacity then we need.

1. The current production systems are problematic with respect to its fuel. Still we need imported RLNL , imported coal. And furnace oil to run power plants of 20000 MW production. This can be a problem specially in situation like these where Strait of hurmuz is closed.

2. The current distribution system causes 30% line losses. Its not capable enough to integrate and distrubute the whole production capacity. That's why we need to give the feeders and grid rest by keep cutting supplies after every 2-3 hours. Otherwise the grid will collapse and melt.

We dont need more projects to produce electricity. What we need is consistent fuel supply for existing plants and modernization of current grid. We need to invest $10-15 billion in our grid. That's it. Not new RLNG projects or other such shitty projects.

 

[RealNapster]

CPEC loans have a 15-year grace period. Payments for any CPEC projects don't start until 2030s.

We are actively facing circular debt issue for cpec projects. It not paying loans yet, good. But still the financial obbligation is there and it is causing issues today.

 

[RealNapster]

Does this mean " Mulk Tareekh ke nazuk tareen daur se guzar raha hai " ?

Look into this on a cosmic scale. If we consider the time between big bang and today as a single 24 hour day. Humanity existed for 1.8 seconds, and Pakistan is supposed to remain on "nazuk morr" for 5 seconds.

 

[Starlord]

Look into this on a cosmic scale. If we consider the time between big bang and today as a single 24 hour day. Humanity existed for 1.8 seconds, and Pakistan is supposed to remain on "nazuk morr" for 5 seconds.

You know we should make a national monument with name Nazuk Morr, that will definitely get some public attention lol

 

[SaadH]

Do we have the current numbers of IPPs and who do they belong to.

Would be interesting and one may get a picture of why more IPPs and capacity are being shoved down Pakistan’s throats.

PMLN PPP and fauji touts and a few favored industrialists. Sab mil kar loot rahay hain hence no incentive to rid the populace of the IPP albatross. Why would fauji civilian mafia derail their gravy train.