Pakistan planning massive new power capacity expansion

[Bilal]

I Made A Lot Of Effort For This.In The End To No Avail.

I Can Create Entire Threads On This

But it’s happening now, apparently. We tend to do the right thing with 20-30 years delay.

 

[R2D2]

Because we gave sovereign guarantees to them. We have arm twisted the local investors (rightly so) to renegotiate their contract by passing the sovereign guarantees.

But we can’t do the same to the Chinese backed IPPs that are now 50% of the capacity payment and we can’t do that to the governments own IPPs (like the RLNG plants where we did adjust the IRR as possible) because the fallout will obviously be on the government and as such on the public itself.

And of course we can’t open the alleged over pricing (of CAPEX) in the 2015 plants for obvious reason.

Therefore, the best approach for now is to increase the utilization of the current capacity to reduce capacity payments and fix our transmission and distribution bottlenecks and losses to bring efficiency in pricing. Not start loading more capacity on an already sick ecosystem.

The govt should nationalize one or two and penalize others and show them the door. They can easily find new markets to relocate in Africa and South America.

 

[Pakistan First]

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PPP and PMLN has collectively murdered Pakistan's economy with their most disastrous power policies over the decades.

In 90's PPP's power so-called strategy was handing out contracts to favoured IPPs. Govt put no restriction on type of power generation and gave guaranteed tariffs. Wapda was bound to pay the IPPs the total capacity of the plant, regardless of the usage. Worst thing at the time was the not the capacity payment but the IPPs actually understood perfect opportunity to milk the govt & tax payer money by quickly setting up plants based on imported fuel (diesel) (as those were quick to setup). Imagine a country totally dependent on oil start making its electricity with imported oil too. PPP made tons of commission. PMLN heavily criticized policy, not because they were sincere with nation but for politics as they wanted to make money too. When they came into power, they did exactly the same even when knowing the dire consequences on economy. PMLN practically held entire economy on hostage with its CPEC capacity payment plans. Now Pakistan is paying billions to all those plants which are partially working or sometimes not even generating the electricity as govt has no operational money but is bound to pay total capacity payments.

 

[Bilal]

The govt should nationalize one or two and penalize others and show them the door. They can easily find new markets to relocate in Africa and South America.

That will be worse.

 

[Pakistan First]

Meanwhile Pak needs to start using its Thar coal aggressively to substitute liquid fuels as far as possible

Exactly that should have been done several decades ago. Its total basic economy 101 that you make your electricity with your available resources. I don't know latest stats but I have stats of 5 years ago at top of my head. Australia was making half of its electricity with coal, india was making 73% of its electricity with coal, china was making 60% of its electricity with coal , Many developed countries were using coal aggressively including US. While Pakistan, the country with world's largest coal reserves was foolishly making less than 1% of its electricity with coal. Its biggest tragedy of our generations. We could have had a very cheap and abundant electricity but because our political parties of last 4 decades with approval of establishment just for commissions, luxury retired lifestyle, extensions, for their own petty benefits ruined the future of whole nation. Irony is same class ruling the poor nation till today.

Our future is in Coal. We have earth's largest reserves of coal.

 

[Goenitz]

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I will add my thoughts later, but sharing every new video on the power issue.
Essentially, we need to move away (supply chain under western influence) from fossil fuel power generation to renewable power generation, such as solar, nuclear, etc. (supply chain under Chinese influence) or local coal power plants.

We cannot otherwise provide a competitive power price to our companies and hence no exports.

 

[Pakistan First]

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I will add my thoughts later, but sharing every new video on the power issue.
Essentially, we need to move away (supply chain under western influence) from fossil fuel power generation to renewable power generation, such as solar, nuclear, etc. (supply chain under Chinese influence) or local coal power plants.

We cannot otherwise provide a competitive power price to our companies and hence no exports.

Yep true. Its simple, the single most (by far) item that we import is Oil. We don't have any oil. Our import / export deficit, all of our problems is because we have to spend billions of dollars to import oil. We have to reduce this import item to bare minimum. The oil dependence on power generation should be eliminated asap and steps needs to be taken to mass EVs adoption over regular petrol based vehicles.

First step is to focus on power based on local coal plants, nuclear plants and hydro power. Solar is being done by people themselves, govt just need to give incentive to companies producing solar panels locally. so we don't end up importing solar panels all the time (same mistake). We need to keep imports at minimum. So if there's massive local demand then govt policies should drive local production that is must. We have done this brutal mistake of abundant local demand yet relying on imports in several sectors, another most important example is Japanese auto industry destroying Pakistan's economy, for 6 decades Pakistanis kept buying honda, toyota, suzuki and being looted by their monopoly and yet not a single manufacturing plant they installed. Only assembly plants. That is second biggest strain on Pak's economy after oil import.

Anyways, we should strive for ZERO power generation from oil. Secondly, we need to make a motor policy for-example: by 2030 Strict no selling of new petrol/diesel based cars. So you can still buy/sell old petrol cars but no new cars allowed after 2030.

 

[R2D2]

That will be worse.

Trump and Netanyahu has slipped out of worse spots. Hire a good lawyer and he will tell us how to get out of this.

 

[Bilal]

Government’s own document:
“electricity tariff will touch the highest number making it unaffordable for a common person”.

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[Jango]

N league made blunder in 2013-2017, their corrupt IPPs deals ruined Pakistan. But Asim Munir danda is working this time.

N league blunder in 2013-2017, but now with the same guy's brother as PM and same cabinet, it is working this time.

The amount of gaslighting this nation sees should be a case study.

 

[Bilal]

N league blunder in 2013-2017, but now with the same guy's brother as PM and same cabinet, it is working this time.

The amount of gaslighting this nation sees should be a case study.

Watch the initial part of the clip I posted above.

Government’s own document is saying it will make electricity unaffordable.

It will add $9 billion repayments annually.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Governments own document:
“electricity tariff is I’ll touch the highest number making it unaffordable for a common person”.

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Yes, let's deindustrialise Pakistan further, rentier state turbocharged.

 

[Samlee]

But it’s happening now, apparently. We tend to do the right thing with 20-30 years delay.

Still Not the way I wanted it

 

[Jango]

Watch the initial part of the clip I posted above.

Government’s own document is saying it will make electricity unaffordable.

It will add $9 billion repayments annually.

They are now brazenly doing whatever they want, because they know they are not answerable.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Yep true. Its simple, the single most (by far) item that we import is Oil. We don't have any oil. Our import / export deficit, all of our problems is because we have to spend billions of dollars to import oil. We have to reduce this import item to bare minimum. The oil dependence on power generation should be eliminated asap and steps needs to be taken to mass EVs adoption over regular petrol based vehicles.

First step is to focus on power based on local coal plants, nuclear plants and hydro power. Solar is being done by people themselves, govt just need to give incentive to companies producing solar panels locally. so we don't end up importing solar panels all the time (same mistake). We need to keep imports at minimum. So if there's massive local demand then govt policies should drive local production that is must. We have done this brutal mistake of abundant local demand yet relying on imports in several sectors, another most important example is Japanese auto industry destroying Pakistan's economy, for 6 decades Pakistanis kept buying honda, toyota, suzuki and being looted by their monopoly and yet not a single manufacturing plant they installed. Only assembly plants. That is second biggest strain on Pak's economy after oil import.

Anyways, we should strive for ZERO power generation from oil. Secondly, we need to make a motor policy for-example: by 2030 Strict no selling of new petrol/diesel based cars. So you can still buy/sell old petrol cars but no new cars allowed after 2030.

No more thar coal power plants are planned. Thar coal now will be used for gas>fertilizers plants.

Sindh government is earning Rs20 billion/year from thar coal royalties. I see this reaching Rs100bn by 2035.