How China blew up its own future

[RealNapster]

East and Southeast Asians are some of the most xenophobic people in the world. Good luck trying to convince them that immigration is the answer. If Japan is any indication, it's going to be rough.

Japanese are too proud to accept that they are doomed. But this is not same with China. Chinese society is more open to outside as compare to Japan.

 

[VCheng]

Okay. Solutions...

1. Chinese government own initiatives. Come-on its china. People listen to their government. They will find a solution to this issue before it come too much to handle.

2. Focus on technology, AI, and robotics. You can have care centres for elders all operated by robots. Funded by government. It will also mean china will need much less people for fully functioning economy. So economy vise it will be okay.

3. Immigration. That is how USA is still floating. That is how Japan wanted to reverse it's issue. And that is how China can do it as well.

4. Again. It's china we talking about. If everything failed. At it become an existential threat to them. They can just kill 100 million elders. Just like what happened with second babies in 70s. Here... the graph for dependence ratio is yet again in stable zone.

1 and 2 are simple hopium and thus useless. 3 I have already hinted at: either open up immigration and change, or remain xenophobically authoritarian and not survive. 4 is too outlandish to consider as a solution.

China remains in between a rock and a hard place demographically speaking, and what we are witnessing right now is probably its peak. Only the short-sighted cannot see that.

 

[RealNapster]

4 is too outlandish to consider as a solution.

Please tell me you know I was kidding with the 4th one.

 

[VCheng]

Please tell me you know I was kidding with the 4th one.

The history of China shows that such mass exterminations are not a joke.

 

[VCheng]

But wait, there is more:

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[F-22Raptor]

In what Terms China is 20 years ahead of US?

Because they aren’t:

- US GDP is larger, and PPP per capita is 3X Chinas
- The US is crushing China in technological development. The US was first to a Covid mRNA vaccine, first to GLP-1s, first to the ChatGPT moment, first to GPU nirvana, first to fracking, first to reusable rockets and internet satellite constellations. US Dominance in cloud computing, semiconductors, wafer fabs, capital software, AI models, satellite launches, biotech, vaccines, LNG, gas turbines, jet engines, and on and on.

US wealth and standard of living is far higher than China. It’s why net immigration favors the US by a couple million.

 

[F-22Raptor]

PPP is the real number not GDP...China accounts for 30% of the global industrial output whereas US only accounts for 20%. China's exports are higher than US and the infrastructure that China has laid down in the last decade dwarfs whatever US has planned for the next 50 years. China's shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of US and has poured more concrete between 2011-2013 than US did in all of 20th century. The scale in incomparable. Just because you have a highly inflated stock market riding the biggest bubble in human history doesn't mean you produce more and generate more economic activity or are a bigger economy.

No, PPP is useless measuring at national scale, and why almost no economists recognize China as the top economy despite it surpassing the US in PPP a decade ago. There’s no such thing as a national cost of living.

The Chinese infrastructure that’s currently undergoing a real estate meltdown with the rows and rows of empty apartment buildings? The worthless LED skyscrapers? Did you know Chinas top 10 tallest skyscrapers were all designed by American architectural and structural engineering firms? The Chinese naval production facilities that will be cratered like Irans?

 

[Oscar]

No, PPP is useless measuring at national scale, and why almost no economists recognize China as the top economy despite it surpassing the US in PPP a decade ago. There’s no such thing as a national cost of living.

The Chinese infrastructure that’s currently undergoing a real estate meltdown with the rows and rows of empty apartment buildings? The worthless LED skyscrapers? Did you know Chinas top 10 tallest skyscrapers were all designed by American architectural and structural engineering firms? The Chinese naval production facilities that will be cratered like Irans?

You’re engaging in whataboutism as our resident American wumao?

Economists do not “almost never recognize” China as the top economy; they usually say “China is larger by PPP, the US is larger by nominal GDP,” because those measures answer different questions.

China has long relied on global design and engineering networks for elite projects, which is true of many countries, including us - that is a shitty point to make and the you go and muddy yourself with the shipbuilding sheepish nonsense. Chinese have massive resilience in shipbuilding which is both larger and better protected than our bullshit granny rubber stamping defective metals for submarine hulls.

Stop being Baghdad bob - our exceptionalism isn’t is self fellatio which you seem to be really good at but introspection and getting things right after falling down - that is what China lacks due to their authoritarian policies and what orange buffoon and his white ISIS cabal are trying to destroy and ironically make us more like a China or North Korea.

You can’t beat someone if you keep sucking your own withering behind trying to look big while failing on every major metric that defines developed countries.

 

[Pioneer]

Based on the level of responses, it seems that they are from some countries with a low HDI.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You’re engaging in whataboutism as our resident American wumao?

Economists do not “almost never recognize” China as the top economy; they usually say “China is larger by PPP, the US is larger by nominal GDP,” because those measures answer different questions.

China has long relied on global design and engineering networks for elite projects, which is true of many countries, including us - that is a shitty point to make and the you go and muddy yourself with the shipbuilding sheepish nonsense. Chinese have massive resilience in shipbuilding which is both larger and better protected than our bullshit granny rubber stamping defective metals for submarine hulls.

Stop being Baghdad bob - our exceptionalism isn’t is self fellatio which you seem to be really good at but introspection and getting things right after falling down - that is what China lacks due to their authoritarian policies and what orange buffoon and his white ISIS cabal are trying to destroy and ironically make us more like a China or North Korea.

You can’t beat someone if you keep sucking your own withering behind trying to look big while failing on every major metric that defines developed countries.

PPP is indeed a useless measure when measuring national economies. Economists don’t recognize it, it’s irrelevant in global trade, and it’s cope for all the “Chinas inevitable rise” bumpkins.

China has peaked and entered long term steady decline defined by catastrophic demographic collapse. Their growth is effectively capped and will never see the heights many on this forum were proclaiming a decade ago. China had their shot and fumbled it. They’ll be eating American dust until the Sun envelopes the planet. That must be tough for many to accept, but that’s reality.

 

[Corax]

PPP is indeed a useless measure when measuring national economies. Economists don’t recognize it, it’s irrelevant in global trade, and it’s cope for all the “Chinas inevitable rise” bumpkins.

China has peaked and entered long term steady decline defined by catastrophic demographic collapse. Their growth is effectively capped and will never see the heights many on this forum were proclaiming a decade ago. China had their shot and fumbled it. They’ll be eating American dust until the Sun envelopes the planet. That must be tough for many to accept, but that’s reality.

Wow, you think America will remain top dog until doomsday?! you sound just like any other fantasy fanboy from Russia, China, india etc

 

[VCheng]

Wow, you think America will remain top dog until doomsday?

No country is ever guaranteed the top position forever. It belongs to only the one that works harder and smarter than all the rest, and only for as long as that fact remains true.

 

[Starlord]

Because they aren’t:

- US GDP is larger, and PPP per capita is 3X Chinas
- The US is crushing China in technological development. The US was first to a Covid mRNA vaccine, first to GLP-1s, first to the ChatGPT moment, first to GPU nirvana, first to fracking, first to reusable rockets and internet satellite constellations. US Dominance in cloud computing, semiconductors, wafer fabs, capital software, AI models, satellite launches, biotech, vaccines, LNG, gas turbines, jet engines, and on and on.

US wealth and standard of living is far higher than China. It’s why net immigration favors the US by a couple million.

China maybe catching up but America is hands down best place to live in, just the sheer size , opportunities, strong institutions, and ability to absorb any culture into itself and then let that culture thrive better than its original country or region is unmatched, i often b!tch about US foreign policy but just my opinion but I still consider US to be the best country to live/retire in.

 

[Corax]

No country is ever guaranteed the top position forever. It belongs to only the one that works harder and smarter than all the rest, and only for as long as that fact remains true.

Every dog has its day, history is littered with them, so shall it be for as long as humans exist probably.

 

[VCheng]

Every dog has its day, history is littered with them, so shall it be for as long as humans exist probably.

Every dog that works for it harder and smarter has its day for as long as it does that, yes.