How China blew up its own future

[VCheng]

I'm laughing my head off at the triumphalist comments here.

It's worth highlighting precisely here that one of the central elements of the contemporary geopolitical transition emerges. Emerging powers negotiate patiently; declining hegemonies react with anxiety.

The current international scenario no longer reflects the old "unipolar moment" of the post-Cold War period. On the contrary, it demonstrates the progressive exhaustion of Western unilateralism and the advance of an increasingly multipolar, competitive, and unstable international system.

For decades, the United States attempted to consolidate a global order based on: financial supremacy, maritime dominance, technological superiority, expeditionary military capacity, and political control of international institutions.

The fall of the Soviet Union led some intellectuals, such as Francis Fukuyama, to proclaim the "end of history," that is, the definitive victory of the Western liberal model as the inevitable destiny of humanity.

Meanwhile, think tanks like the Project for the New American Century developed doctrines aimed at indefinitely preserving the global hegemony of the US that emerged after 1989. Preemptive wars, color revolutions, NATO expansion, and successive military interventions largely served this strategic objective.

However, historical reality followed a different path.

China not only resisted Western containment but also achieved systemic parity with the United States in multiple dimensions: industrial, technological, commercial, and geopolitical. The Washington Post itself recently acknowledged that the Trump-Xi summit symbolized something Washington had tried to avoid for decades: the recognition of China as a power equivalent to the United States. Julian Gewirtz, former advisor on China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration, even stated that “there is no turning back.” This recognition constitutes a historical event of enormous magnitude.

Because the real strategic problem for Washington is not just the economic rise of China. What is truly at stake is the end of the United States' ability to act as the absolute arbiter of the international system.

And therein lies the deeper issue: unilateralism can no longer be materially sustained. This is not merely an ideological or diplomatic crisis. It is a structural transformation of the global balance of power.

China has reached critical mass in industry and technology. Russia maintains strategic depth, energy resources, and military capabilities. The BRICS are progressively expanding their influence. Eurasia is strengthening its economic integration. And the West is slowly losing the financial and productive monopoly that has sustained its global dominance for decades. In this context, the partnership between Moscow and Beijing assumes decisive importance.

Classical geopolitics reappears here with perfect clarity.

From Halford Mackinder to Zbigniew Brzezinski, the great historical concern of the Anglo-Saxon maritime powers has always been to prevent the strategic integration of Eurasia. The convergence of Russia's territorial extent, China's industrial capacity, and continental energy connectivity profoundly alters this historical balance.

This is why the energy issue has acquired fundamental centrality. While the United States attempts to preserve its thalassocratic hegemony by controlling maritime control points – the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, and Bab el-Mandeb – China and Russia are advancing with alternative mechanisms of continental integration less vulnerable to a Western naval blockade. Energy is, therefore, once again becoming one of the true strategic centers of gravity of the contemporary international system.

In this sense, the reflections of Professor John Mearsheimer are particularly relevant. The leading proponent of offensive realism has argued for years that the “unipolar moment” is over and that the international system has returned to being structured around competition between great powers.

Mearsheimer warned early on that Western expansion after the Cold War – especially the expansion of NATO – would inevitably generate tensions with Russia and accelerate the return of a balance of power logic.

But perhaps his most important observation is another: the very process of globalization driven by the West ended up strengthening precisely the United States' main systemic competitor. Global economic integration did not contain China: it industrialized, financed, and strengthened it.

And yet you avoid the basic limitation built right into China's rise: it cannot escape its demographic change.

And the downward spiral is only just beginning.

 

[ety]

On previous version of PDF, we had a thread in which Chinese members used to put pictures and details of Chinese tier 2 and tier 3 cities. That was a wonderful thread to watch. But I was wondering about Chinese towns (not old traditional ones, modern ones, and not cities but towns ). I looked for 4K videos on them on YouTube as well but couldn't find one.

Try this link, with many county level cities, large ones and rural driving, gives you some impression of the country.

中国街景 China Street View​

中国街景 China Street View

与您分享中国各地的街景视频，欢迎您订阅我的频道，谢谢！ Share Street View videos from all over China with you, you are welcome to subscribe to my channel, thank you!

www.youtube.com

 

[RealNapster]

Try this link, with many county level cities, large ones and rural driving, gives you some impression of the country.

中国街景 China Street View​

中国街景 China Street View

与您分享中国各地的街景视频，欢迎您订阅我的频道，谢谢！ Share Street View videos from all over China with you, you are welcome to subscribe to my channel, thank you!

www.youtube.com

Thank you for the share. I was looking for something like this.

 

[RealNapster]

This video is worth watching, for the simple reason that it highlights the importance of demographic trends, and why the current narrative of China replacing USA is not likely to happen in the latter half of this century. It will be a very different world based just upon demographic changes alone in many important ways.

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The demise of USA as a superpower that many like to predict so passionately on PDF may just be an exaggeration.

Okay. Solutions...

1. Chinese government own initiatives. Come-on its china. People listen to their government. They will find a solution to this issue before it come too much to handle.

2. Focus on technology, AI, and robotics. You can have care centres for elders all operated by robots. Funded by government. It will also mean china will need much less people for fully functioning economy. So economy vise it will be okay.

3. Immigration. That is how USA is still floating. That is how Japan wanted to reverse it's issue. And that is how China can do it as well.

4. Again. It's china we talking about. If everything failed. At it become an existential threat to them. They can just kill 100 million elders. Just like what happened with second babies in 70s. Here... the graph for dependence ratio is yet again in stable zone.

 

[atmi_bum]

Okay. Solutions...

1. Chinese government own initiatives. Come-on its china. People listen to their government. They will find a solution to this issue before it come too much to handle.

2. Focus on technology, AI, and robotics. You can have care centres for elders all operated by robots. Funded by government. It will also mean china will need much less people for fully functioning economy. So economy vise it will be okay.

3. Immigration. That is how USA is still floating. That is how Japan wanted to reverse it's issue. And that is how China can do it as well.

4. Again. It's china we talking about. If everything failed. At it become an existential threat to them. They can just kill 100 million elders. Just like what happened with second babies in 70s. Here... the graph for dependence ratio is yet again in stable zone.

East and Southeast Asians are some of the most xenophobic people in the world. Good luck trying to convince them that immigration is the answer. If Japan is any indication, it's going to be rough.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Have spent time in both countries. China is in indeed far more advanced than the US. Unfortunately US is on a decline in many ways.

This is a generalistic statement which surprises me coming from you.

In what categories is China ahead of the US?

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Yes, it did.

Just check USA billionaire wealth, stock market, real estate value, inflation, gold and silver prices.

Trillions dollar companies, it's not their value is increasing because they are offering more, but the USD value is falling dramatically.

These trillions dollar companies are wealth protector for the elites, while the common people below are still being paid with minimum wage in USD.

The billionaires are getting wealthier, but the people below are not, that is the sign.

If you are being paid and saved your money in gold and silver, you won't experience the hardship of other people on the street, because you are not getting poorer and you don't complain about good price in supermarket at all, car price, house price, etc.

This reads like one of those ads I always hear on the radio about gold. You don't happen to sell gold, do you?

 

[Jango]

That's why all of Europe and Canada is importing people from all over the world. China has so far resisted...let's see for how long

 

[Starlord]

In what Terms China is 20 years ahead of US?

 

[ety]

East and Southeast Asians are some of the most xenophobic people in the world. Good luck trying to convince them that immigration is the answer. If Japan is any indication, it's going to be rough.

Why doesn't your India allow large number of immigrants then ? China is already overcrowded.

 

[Fatman17]

The US will remain the global hyperpower and hegemon:

- Economically dominant with GDP likely exceeding $100T in the next 30-40 years
- Dominant science and tech base, with the best companies in the world at a $77T market capitalization today
- Militarily dominant as recently displayed in Iran and Venezuela
- Best universities in the world
- Global energy hegemon

The US is relatively stronger today versus its adversaries and the rest of the world than 5+ years ago and pre Covid:

- Post Covid the US has seen an economic and productivity boom. It’s running away from the rest of the world with China just trying to keep up
- Russia is buried in Ukraine, Venezuela is US captured, Iran is at its weakest point ever, Syria is run by a CIA asset, and Cuba can’t even keep the lights on for more than 2 hours.
- China has been exposed as weak, incapable of countering US global geopolitical plays across South America and the Middle East and now on Day 51 of its oil being blockaded by the US Navy and failing to respond, and being encircled by the US and its allies in the Western Pacific.

The US is stronger than it’s ever been, and relatively stronger than at any point outside the immediate post WW2 and Cold War space.

Happy ending for you

 

[kankan326]

That's why all of Europe and Canada is importing people from all over the world. China has so far resisted...let's see for how long

Today I saw a video. A Portuguese man walked in a Musilm community in Lisbon. He carried a Portuguese flag. Local people stared at him with very hostile gaze. Some people showed middle finger to him.

I heard during football World Cup, Mexican Americans cheered for Mexican team only.

Population replacement is a bigger problem than anything else. White Americans will become minorities in the near future.

 

[东风夜放花千树]

China has always been the largest developing country.

The United States participated in World War II for only 3 years and 9 months. China participated in World War II for 14 years.

Before participating in World War II, the United States gained enormous economic benefits by selling arms and strategic materials to both warring sides. After the war, it recruited many scientists from other countries, including 1,600 German scientists and a large number of Japanese scientists. China, on the other hand, was busy dealing with civil war and hunger.

A poor person holding farming tools cannot be compared to a rich person holding a gun.

China has only existed as a country for 77 years. We spent more than a decade on the wrong path and were involved in 7 wars. China has had direct confrontations with both the United States and the Soviet Union.

China only began to develop in 1978. China has been developing for only 48 years.

Therefore, I do not agree with the claim that China is 20 years ahead. If you think China is ahead, it is actually an intuitive feeling of ordinary people. China’s system has improved the living standards of everyone, rather than serving a tiny group of vested interests.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Happy ending for you

LOL.......I see what you did there.

 

[SaadH]

USA GDP 30 Trillion $
CHINA GDP 21 Trillion $
You need to catch up

PPP is the real number not GDP...China accounts for 30% of the global industrial output whereas US only accounts for 20%. China's exports are higher than US and the infrastructure that China has laid down in the last decade dwarfs whatever US has planned for the next 50 years. China's shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of US and has poured more concrete between 2011-2013 than US did in all of 20th century. The scale in incomparable. Just because you have a highly inflated stock market riding the biggest bubble in human history doesn't mean you produce more and generate more economic activity or are a bigger economy.