US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Musings]

This is Why the U.S. Does Not Need a Fast Deal With Iran.​

The United States has no urgency to cut a deal with Iranbecause the economic and strategic balance of power has tilted decisively in Washington’s favor: Iran is suffering a historic collapse in oil revenues, inflation at World War II levels, and a currency in free fall, while the U.S. is growing, creating jobs, and exporting record volumes of oil and gas.

Iran’s current crisis combines three shocks: corruption and regime mismanagement, war-related damage, and the U.S.-led blockade on crude exports. Oil exports have plunged from around 1.3–1.9 million barrels per day in early 2026 to roughly 0.2–0.26 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level in at least six years, wiping out about 1 million barrels per day of sales. At an oil price near 80 dollars, that implies a loss of roughly 2.5 billion dollars per month in hard‑currency revenue, starving the regime of its main funding source.


Year‑on‑year inflation reached 77.2% in May, a rate Iran has not seen since 1942, with prices of everyday essentials like medicine, taxi fares, and communication fees rising by more than 113% over the year. The rial has collapsed from about 32,000 per dollar in 2015 to over 1.7 million per dollar on the street, effectively destroying household savings and any nominal anchor for the economy. Private analysts and Tehran‑based economists warn that inflation could approach or exceed 80%, a level society “cannot tolerate” for long without social explosion.

Iran is not just suffering high inflation; it is bleeding capital and human wealth. Independent research shows capital flight has multiplied five‑fold in the past three years, as firms and wealthy households move money and assets abroad to escape sanctions risk, confiscation, and the collapse of the rial. This outflow erodes the tax base, depresses investment, and accelerates deindustrialization, turning a cyclical crisis into a structural decline.

The exchange rate tells the same story of lost confidence. A currency that once traded at 32,000 rials per dollar now trades at roughly 1.7 million, a devaluation of more than 95%, which raises the domestic price of every imported input and consumer good. In such an environment, any attempt at monetary stabilization is quickly undermined by expectations of further depreciation, dollarization of savings, and the exodus of capital and skilled workers. Past bouts of inflation and fuel-price shocks already triggered deadly protests; today’s far worse macro conditions leave the regime facing chronic social fragility.

Facing protests and the risk of unrest, the regime has resorted to cutting internet access and threatening, or partially enforcing, closures around the Strait of Hormuz. Shutting down the internet is a clear sign of weakness: it immediately disrupts commerce, finance, logistics, and basic services, magnifying the economic contraction while openly admitting the regime fears its citizens more than external enemies. The crackdown jeopardizes any chance of domestic private-sector recovery, as no investor can function in an environment where authorities can arbitrarily sever digital connectivity.

At the same time, weaponizing Hormuz via blockades or threats has backfired. U.S. naval actions and allied coordination have allowed Washington to impose a de facto blockade on Iranian crude while keeping global flows from other Gulf producers largely protected or rerouted. Dozens of millions of barrels of Iranian crude now sit stranded in floating storage in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and if the blockade remains, Iran may soon run out of oil it can physically move to China, its last major buyer. Tehran’s strategic choke point has transformed into a vulnerability that the U.S. is leveraging to intensify financial pressure without resorting to military action against the Iranian mainland.

While Iran’s economy contracts under hyperinflation and collapsing exports, the U.S. macro picture is comparatively solid. Latest data show U.S. real GDP expanding at an annualized 3%, with private consumption and services activity strengthening in the latest ISM readings, strong job creation, and real net wages rising. Furthermore, the U.S. is now a global net energy exporter, with crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports hovering near record levels. High prices linked to Middle East disruptions hurt consumers but simultaneously boost U.S. export revenues, investment in shale and LNG infrastructure, and geostrategic leverage as Europe and Asia seek non‑Russian and non‑Iranian supply. In other words, the same blockade that devastates Iran’s budget improves the bargaining position of the U.S. by tightening global supply while redirecting demand toward American barrels.

Iran’s attempt to shut down Hormuz to everyone except itself and ban the internet did not project strength; it exposed how fragile and cornered the regime really is. A confident, resilient economy does not need to cut its access to trade routes and information to survive; only a regime afraid of its people and its vulnerabilities does that.

Iran today is the textbook definition of a macroeconomic and strategic trap. It is in a deep recession, with output contracting under the weight of sanctions, war risk, and a collapsing export base. Inflation in daily essentials, running at around 113.8% year-on-year, means that food, transport, medicines, and communications become unaffordable for large parts of the population in a matter of months. The currency has effectively disintegrated: the rial’s collapse is not just a market signal; it is a vote of no confidence by Iranian citizens and firms in their authorities’ ability to preserve basic purchasing power. On top of these developments, oil exports—the regime’s main hard-currency lifeline—are plummeting under blockade pressure.

Contrast that with the United States. Real GDP is still growing at about 2.6% year over year, and the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is tracking close to 3% annualized growth. Wages are rising, the labor market remains tight by historical standards, and U.S. energy exports—both oil and gas—are at or near record levels. In other words, the same environment that is crushing Iran is one in which the U.S. economy can still expand, finance its deficits at scale, and benefit from higher energy prices through increased export revenues.

That is why the idea, pushed by some X trolls, that “this is Iran winning” is so detached from reality. Winning is not shutting yourself out of global markets, destroying your currency, suffering triple-digit inflation in essentials, and relying on repression and internet blackouts to contain social unrest. “Winning” is being in a position where your economy grows, your currency is the world’s reference asset, and your energy exports are indispensable to allies. By any serious macroeconomic and strategic metric, Iran’s latest moves only confirm its weaknesses and why the U.S. is in no hurry whatsoever to grant it relief.

Given this evidence, Washington has little incentive to rush into a deal that would relieve pressure on Tehran. The longer the blockade and sanctions regime remain in force, the more Iran’s fiscal position deteriorates, the more its inflation spirals, and the weaker its negotiating hand becomes. From a U.S. strategic standpoint, time is an asset: Iran burns reserves, loses export capacity, and faces rising protest risk, while the U.S. economy strengthens and energy production and exports reach record highs.

This is Why the U.S. Does Not Need a Fast Deal With Iran. | dlacalle.com

www.dlacalle.com

How low do you have to stoop or search on the internet? Look at the source and ask yourself how deep have you had to dig to find an article to suit your agenda? Its really quite pathetic.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

How low do you have to stoop or search on the internet? Look at the source and ask yourself how deep have you had to dig to find an article to suit your agenda? Its really quite pathetic.

Fortunately, @lightning f57 provided a contrarian opinion which was recognized accordingly.

And of course, while myopic posts continue to be posted, it's not hard to look under the hood or peel back the covers to see what's underneath. The reality is concerning. For example, as posted in US Economy (and likely here), US processed gasoline inventories have been on a steady decline since Nov. 2025. The US EIA will updated its numbers by end of day US East Coast time tomorrow. Sometime Wednesday I should be able to provide the latest update.

Across the downstream spectrum, things aren't that rosy at the consumer level. It will be more pronounced when the fall harvest hits. No one cares that the price of fertilizer has returned to pre-war pricing. The planting season has been over for well over a month now.

Cheering over the jobs report is absurd. In the latest release, 55,000 of those jobs were in local government. Another significant number were in hospitality. Those are seasonal jobs.

Frankly, it's bizarre.

 

[VCheng]

Across the downstream spectrum, things aren't that rosy at the consumer level. It will be more pronounced when the fall harvest hits. No one cares that the price of fertilizer has returned to pre-war pricing. The planting season has been over for well over a month now.

From highs of about $5.90, gas is down to about $5.50, for a few weeks, but is not dropping any further.

Painful as that level is, it is the prices of everyday goods and services that is the real pressure on household budgets.

From groceries to utility bills to haircuts to lawnmowing, everything and everyone is hurting.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

From highs of about $5.90, gas is down to about $5.50, for a few weeks, but is not dropping any further.

Painful as that level is, it is the prices of everyday goods and services that is the real pressure on household budgets.

From groceries to utility bills to haircuts to lawnmowing, everything and everyone is hurting.

It will get worse before it gets better.

 

[Fatman17]

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[AZ_HighCountry]

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Pape isn't telling us anything we don't already know.

 

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It's already the global economy. The question to be asked is how much worse does it become?

 

[HAIDER]

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The US struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites

Two US navel vessel spoofed and use Oman commerical vessel signal, but Iranian got them and turn back US ship in 30 minutes warning. Will hit in 30 minutes or go back to international waters. Lots of vides and audio warning on net. Check press tv site , they posted the video and audio of that short standoff.

 

[HAIDER]

Iran’s Attack on Israel Reveals New and Aggressive Regional Ambitions​

Move shows appetite for risk that didn’t exist before the war​

Israeli settlers near a downed Iranian missile Monday on the outskirts of Jericho. Erik Marmor/Getty Images
By

Laurence Norman
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and

Jared Malsin
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June 8, 2026 8:00 pm ET
Iran’s series of ballistic-missile salvos aimed at Israel signal Tehran’s desire to project power across the region, put Washington on the defensive and demonstrate that it retains significant strike capabilities despite the intense air campaign waged against it by the U.S. and Israel.

Tehran’s leaders appear to be gambling that missile attacks and President Trump’s desire to keep a possible peace deal on track will pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back his offensive against the Iranian allied-Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, after Israel launched an airstrike in Beirut on Sunday.

After a series of tit-for-tat exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, Tehran said Monday it had ceased its attacks but warned that they would resume and could widen if Israel continued to strike, including in southern Lebanon. Israel also ended its attacks on Iran but would continue to operate against Hezbollah, including in the south, a person familiar with the matter said.

Iran’s regime has been emboldened by surviving more than a month of airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel and has established some deterrence against future attacks by showing it can inflict costs on the global economy by blockading the strategic Strait of Hormuz and attacking its relatively vulnerable Gulf neighbors.

Israeli security and rescue personnel work next to a part of a projectile that landed in northern Israel. Shir Torem/Reuters
The White House’s reluctance to restart the war despite constant challenges to Trump’s two-month ceasefire has bolstered Tehran’s confidence that it can be more assertive without triggering military blowback.

“Iran’s decisions show they believe they have the upper hand, with Trump deterred from renewing the fighting,” said Ofer Guterman, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “It allows them to project power, and not in a trivial way.”

Iran remains vulnerable with its economy in shambles, no control of its airspace and little demonstrated ability to inflict the sort of strategic damage that could head off determined Israeli attacks.

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But the regime’s willingness to escalate has managed to roll back some of the U.S. and Israel’s gains of the 12-day war last June, after which Iran looked exposed and Hezbollah had been cowed, Guterman said.

Iran has also shown in weeks of skirmishes that it has more than enough missiles to stay in the fight despite U.S. and Israeli efforts to degrade those capabilities. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in April that Iran emerged from the initial 40-day phase of the war this spring with thousands of ballistic missiles intact.

Tehran’s top officials are now touting their ability to use force to threaten U.S. and Israeli interests and shape the diplomatic off-ramp. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iranian lead negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf have each echoed the message.

“The Iranian nation has shown in its struggle against the United States and the Zionist regime that the era of cost-free threats against Iran has ended,” Ghalibaf said last week.

Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, a new generation of hard-line Iranian leaders has jettisoned decades of caution in attacking Israel and critical targets in neighboring countries. Their goal is to restore deterrence by responding to any challenge to their interests and make sure neither the U.S. or Israel come out of the war with a sense they have won.

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The weekend’s escalation began after Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut on Sunday, testing a brief ceasefire that Trump imposed when intensified fighting in Lebanon a week ago threatened the talks with Iran.

An Israeli airstrike targeted a neighborhood in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on Sunday. Kawnat Haju/AFP/Getty Images

Lebanon’s coastal city of Tyre was hit by Israeli airstrikes. Kawnat Haju/AFP/Getty Images
Iran responded with a series of missile attacks on Israel that did little damage. Israel retaliated by striking an important Iranian petrochemical plant and air defenses. It was the first exchange of direct fire between the two rivals since Trump declared a halt to the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in Iran in April, and a gamble that even striking Israel wouldn’t cause a resumption of the war.

Iran’s strikes showed once again that Trump will publicly pressure Netanyahu to scale back attacks if he feels a diplomatic deal is in danger, exposing Israeli-U.S. tensions over ending the war that Tehran hopes to exploit.

Trump said Monday on social media that “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’”

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Israel wants the freedom to keep attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon even if the war in Iran ends. It also would prefer to keep going at Iran to further degrade its industrial capacity and put pressure on the regime, though it realizes it needs Trump’s approval and U.S. military support to fully resume hostilities. Netanyahu said on Monday that he had acted to ensure that Iran and Hezbollah couldn’t “impose on us an intolerable new equation,” in which Israel was unable to respond to the Lebanese group’s or Tehran’s attacks.

Israeli anti-air-defense interceptors, as seen from Ramallah in the West Bank. Mohamad Torokman/Reuters
After the Israeli strike on Beirut on Sunday, Iran’s attack displayed its determination to maintain the link between the two fronts in the war, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at International Crisis Group.

“Iran has left Washington trying to separate two fronts whose key triggers remain outside the U.S.-Iran channel: Israel’s asserted freedom of action in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s refusal to stand down,” he said. “The war has certainly made Iran less, not more, risk averse.”

Iran’s attack on Israel also underscores how direct conflict between the two regional enemies, unthinkable before 2024, is being normalized.

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Back then, it was Iran and its proxies, the self-styled Axis of Resistance, that were on the defensive. Israel picked off Iranian commanders in Lebanon and Syria, eventually provoking Iran’s first direct attack on Israel in April 2024.

After Israel killed Hamas’s top official and the longtime leader of Hezbollah, Iran attacked Israel again that fall. Israel’s response was precise and militarily damaging.

With Hezbollah weakened and the collapse of the pro-Iranian Assad regime in Syria, Iran’s military influence in the region was at a low point. Hezbollah was coerced to accept a ceasefire, backing down from its previous stance that it wouldn’t accept a truce without a corresponding ceasefire in Gaza.

Now, Iran is seeking to show that it will take risks to champion its militia allies’ cause.

Since the start of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, Iran’s militias have shown they remain a threat. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq launched drones into Saudi Arabia while Hezbollah, which sat on its hands during last June’s U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, repeatedly fired on Israeli targets. That extended Iran’s reach during its campaign of missile and drone attacks against Israel, Gulf countries and other regional states including Turkey and Azerbaijan.

It isn’t clear whether Iran’s assertive military strategy will prevail. Israel remains determined to weaken Hezbollah, and it showed by retaliating against Iran that there is a limit to Washington’s willingness or capability to constrain it.

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Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser now at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said Tehran faces a basic problem in trying to paint itself as an emboldened power: Its ability to harm Israel is significantly weaker than Israel’s ability to hurt it.

Iran is trying to make up for this by taking more risks.

“In the past you had the proxies protecting Iran, and Iranians were very risk averse in terms of using missiles and drones,” said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran division of Israeli defense intelligence. “Now it’s the opposite—Iran is using its capabilities in order to protect the axis itself.”

The Iran War​

Latest news and analysis, selected by editors

 

[F-22Raptor]

From highs of about $5.90, gas is down to about $5.50, for a few weeks, but is not dropping any further.

Painful as that level is, it is the prices of everyday goods and services that is the real pressure on household budgets.

From groceries to utility bills to haircuts to lawnmowing, everything and everyone is hurting.

Gas down to $3.85 at my local station, the lowest since March. Brent crude at $93 despite 3 months of Hormuz disruption. LNG and oil exports at record highs. Stocks at record highs, growth at 2-2.5% this year

56 days of the enchanted naval blockade and neither Iran or China doing anything about it. Irans economy approaching failed state status with hyperinflation, GDP contraction, $300B in infrastructure damage, and mass unemployment. Total Iranian victory though