Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[VCheng]

you can now go read details of the official MOU which leaves no doubt

Sir, what we have thus far is a transcript of what officials of both Iran and USA read to media reporters. For example, just look at the order of the two countries at the very beginning: they are different depending on who transcribed them.

I agree that there is no doubt as to the framework described in the MoU has been agreed upon by both countries, and that it is great step in stopping the war. But all the key details and issues regarding the stepwise implementation of every agreed upon will be negotiated in the next 60 days.

Without going into details at this point, as a preview, please note that in the reported document, many significant terms are only implied. Who are the "allies"? Yes, Israel is easy to guess, but what about the Iranian allies? If any of these allies stage an attack, what will happen to the agreement? Who will be "regional partners" putting up the $300 billion investments and under what terms and conditions? What will be mechanism of enforcement of the "applicable international law" after "discussion with Oman and other littoral States" after the initial 60 period for transit of the SoH? How is the "proximity of Iran" defined as, beyond which US forces will withdraw after 30 days?

Obviously, there is still much to be clarified over the next 60 days that will greatly affect the outcome of what has been described.

The best thing that has been made clear thus far is that both sides have agreed to change the adversarial nature of their relationship resulting in direct conflict into a defined transactional relationship where mutually agreed upon steps lead to stepwise improvements.

As I previously mentioned, both sides have to be able to sell this framework to their respective internal audiences. In the meantime, there is cessation of hostilities, opening of transit, and a commitment to finalize the real details.

That is all good, thus far, for both sides.

And at risk of yet more ire from @Musings , some things may still take some time to understand. I will patiently wait and see. Of course, anyone wishing to rush to judgement prematurely is most welcome to do so, freely.

 

[ghazi52]

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[Persian Gulf]

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[Meengla]

The only issue I see is Lebanon, Israel will continue to bomb Hizbollah and will not leave Lebanon, most likely we will witness future clashes between Iran and Israel over Lebanon.

There are voices in Israel who are advocating a return to the Ben Gurion doctrine of early Israel: Israeli population is too small to try to grab land outside of Israel's borders. But in last 3 or 4 decades, the evil Netanyahu's doctrine has been prevailing not only with its 'Clean Break' strategy against the Palestinians but also Israel's survival strategy through brute force in the entire region.
As for Hezbollah: They jumped in to help Iran in early March. And Iran can't abandon them. But Hezbollah will stop targeting Israel if and when the Israelis withdraw from Lebanon.

 

[Meengla]

Those who said words about Pakistan led mediation process and said that Qatar has taken over the process should see this picture.

This Picture of Pak PM holding the signed Islamabad MoU has just ONE other signatory besides the two parties, and that is Pakistan and not any other country.

View attachment 202143

Even Qatar has conceded that it is Pakistan who is the chief Mediator. Very nice of Qatar. Basically, Qatar's role has been about the financial aspects of this Deal. And if one follows the diplomatic engagements over the last few months, then clearly it was Pakistan who was on an overdrive; and the world acknowledges that--except of course India, Israel and UAE.

 

[ghazi52]

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[ShapurII]

Sure. I am talking about immediate benefits from sanctions waivers relating to oil and petrochemicals exports and all related banking services:

Point 10: The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

US-Iran memorandum of understanding in full

The deal has 14 points and includes a commitment from both sides to hold further talks on a final agreement in the next 60 days.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes, but where does it say that Iran can bring that money into Iran as cash? We need cash. That's been our whole point of conversation from the beginning.

Even before this MoU, we were selling oil to China, as China was not following US sanctions on Iran, and our money stayed in China and we could use our money to purchase Chinese goods. This has been arrangement with China for the last couple of years. So, what has changed exactly?

 

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[BHAN85]

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[Persian Gulf]

Yes, but where does it say that Iran can bring that money into Iran as cash? We need cash. That's been our whole point of conversation from the beginning.

Even before this MoU, we were selling oil to China, as China was not following US sanctions on Iran, and our money stayed in China and we could use our money to purchase Chinese goods. This has been arrangement with China for the last couple of years. So, what has changed exactly?

Before the war did the U.S. provide sanctions waivers for the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemicals to every country in the world, including for related logistics and banking services? Obviously not. China bought some oil from us anyway but with these sanctions waivers we can sell oil to anyone. And you think the specific reference to waivers for banking services doesn’t mean anything?

 

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[VCheng]

Yes, but where does it say that Iran can bring that money into Iran as cash? We need cash. That's been our whole point of conversation from the beginning.

There is now a framework that makes such transfers possible, based upon steps that Iran can agree to achieve. That is an important step forward for Iran's economy to revive itself in a gradual manner.

 

[ShapurII]

I thought the same, normally Usa and Israel never forgive and forget their enemies or those who threaten them but Iran stood their ground, world powers like China opposed this war, Pakistan Turkey also opposed it and pressurised the Usa to stop bombing Iran, also the world economy was collapsing. This agreement is serious stuff, I think Iran will also change their policy to not use threatening language against the Usa and Israel, will then rebuild their economy. Yes when the time comes Iran will defend itself but no need to make threatening statements which Israel uses against them and lobbys the west to attack Iran.

People like Meengla lulladapul and others were right, Usa needed 1m troops to take the war to Iran and they cannot afford this, world economy will collapse, they dropped 16000 bombs on Iran but Iran still stands. Overall Israel lost, they wanted to finish off Syria Bashar Al Assad, Gaddafi, Saddam and they succeeded but failed at Iran. Also Usa is alot weaker than in 2001 time, the world powers and Muslim nations are alot more stronger.

Iran needs to move on, forget Usa and Israel, build strong economic, trade and military relations with Russia China Pakistan Turkey ASEAN Central Asia Africa, Europe rebuild their economy, Iran is easy 1 trillion dollar economy and can rise to be similar level as Turkey.

The only issue I see is Lebanon, Israel will continue to bomb Hizbollah and will not leave Lebanon, most likely we will witness future clashes between Iran and Israel over Lebanon.

I think you are wrong to assume that the Iran war is over. It is not over in my opinion. It is far from over. If anything, it has just started in my opinion.

Remember that it took the US, Europe, Turkey and Arab countries 13 years and 8 months to finally defeat Syria. The fall of Syria didn't happen overnight. Assad initially won the war, didn't he? The same goes for Saddam's Iraq. The First Persian Gulf War happened in 1991, Saddam was overthrown in 2003.

Anyway, it's too early to judge what will happen. We need to wait for at least another 60 days before we call it a victory for Iran.

As of now, none of the sides have lost or gained anything of significance yet. This is merely an extension of the ceasefire for 60 days in my opinion. If anything, both sides are getting ready for longer war in my opinion:

1. This ceasefire enables the US and other countries to refill their strategic reserves for the next round of war.
2. This ceasefire allows Iran to empty its oil storage tankers for the next round of war and get some temporary relief for the second round.