Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Flotilla]

5 million barrels a day pass through the Omani corridor.
4+ million barrels/day through Yanbu/Suez.
1.8 million from Fujairah.
5 million barrel/day reduction in purchases by Chin. China can sustain that almost indefinitely with their massive reserves.
Iran is apparently selling some oil from tankers parked near China.

All the above add up to 17-18 million barrels a day.

20-21 million barrels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.

That is only about a 3 million barrel reduction in supply. The world and US strategic reserves can carry this forward for a very long time.

Logically some of that 3 million would have gone to strategic reserves in the past and would not affect economic productivity anyway. Oil prices don't seem manipulated once you consider these.

Iran is burning the candle at both ends by failing to enforce an actual oil blockade and wasting time with non-entity Oman, while under a total naval blockade and getting bombed every other day.

For sure.
And the price it is the same.
Nobody pays the insurances costs. The E3 flights and the coverage of probably half of dozen fighters and helicopters.
All this doesn´t have any impact in the oil price.
Of course.

 

[kobra]

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[KAL-EL]

Iran can't touch a inch of USA mainland.

But Iran has whole intention to sink USA warships, they didnt do it because they can't, but if someday USA runs out of weapons in warships near to Iran, it could happen.

American warships sinking near to Iran coast, it's a scenario that reminds Pearl Harbor, and Pearl Harbor was the justification to the only one real use of nukes.

I wasn't referring to Iran specifically. I meant in general. Which is why I said any country.

 

[unconventional]

Unfortunately, the signs are looking pretty ominous for Iran. I don’t think Iran can be militarily defeated by the US/Israel. Any overthrow of the regime will have to come from within Iran.

But it also seems like the US/Israel will go to any lengths to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Part of their playbook seems to be to use on-off military operations to enforce a strangling economic blockade of Iran. Disenfranchise Iran from its neighbors, basically not have anyone deal with Iran.

After the whole Spain’s Ceuta debacle, looking at how most of the EU was willing to throw them under the bus, and China not stepping up to confront the US’s hegemony in the region (in light of the Iran war); I am apprehensive that Iran will be left isolated.

An isolated Iran will be an Iran that is strangulated economically, and that is the biggest danger for Iran.

Iran can cause its neighbors and even Europe, and other parts of Asia significant damage economically; but if the pain does not get transferred to Israel or the US adequately, I am afraid the US/Israel will wait till Iran gets economically choked. They don’t care about the rest of the world, Spain is a good example.

And by pain to the US, I do not mean pain to the Trump presidency. It seems clear that this is clearly bigger than Trump’s presidency. Pain to the US would mean the USD being seriously threatened as the world’s reserve currency, or a serious threat to US’s hegemony in the region; or a serious degradation to the US militarily.

 

[Desert]

Iran has lost this war, it is beyond clear at this point that the war is lost and signing our surrender is imminent. Another "Jaam-e Zahr" is awaiting Iran.

All because the incompetent fools in the Islamic Republic couldn't fight the US for 60 days straight, after 47 years of chanting Marg bar Amrika and Marg bar Esraeel.

And this is just the beginning. Even after signing our surrender, the US won't leave alone Iran. Mark my words.

Iran is going to give up on its control on the Strait of Hormuz, we will be forced to allow IAEA inspections again, eventually hand over our enriched uranium, and probably even pay compensation to Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates and other regional countries for years for attacking them.

Lol wow I guess i'm not that pessimistic , i found someone who is on another level

 

[BHAN85]

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Happens

it could be a cyberattack to Internet of Things industrial elements.

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The only safe network from the state level western attackers, it's the offline airgapped network.

And how many industries implement that kind of paranoid security? No one.

It's cheaper and easier to have everything connected, wireless sensors, and so on.

 

[Watandar]

Unfortunately, the signs are looking pretty ominous for Iran. I don’t think Iran can be militarily defeated by the US/Israel. Any overthrow of the regime will have to come from within Iran.

But it also seems like the US/Israel will go to any lengths to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Part of their playbook seems to be to use on-off military operations to enforce a strangling economic blockade of Iran. Disenfranchise Iran from its neighbors, basically not have anyone deal with Iran.

After the whole Spain’s Ceuta debacle, looking at how most of the EU was willing to throw them under the bus, and China not stepping up to confront the US’s hegemony in the region (in light of the Iran war); I am apprehensive that Iran will be left isolated.

An isolated Iran will be an Iran that is strangulated economically, and that is the biggest danger for Iran.

Iran can cause its neighbors and even Europe, and other parts of Asia significant damage economically; but if the pain does not get transferred to Israel or the US adequately, I am afraid the US/Israel will wait till Iran gets economically choked. They don’t care about the rest of the world, Spain is a good example.

And by pain to the US, I do not mean pain to the Trump presidency. It seems clear that this is clearly bigger than Trump’s presidency. Pain to the US would mean the USD being seriously threatened as the world’s reserve currency, or a serious threat to US’s hegemony in the region; or a serious degradation to the US militarily.

Dude any deal will involve removing the blockade and sanctions relief. That means there isn't any economic strangling possible.

 

[BHAN85]

I wasn't referring to Iran specifically. I meant in general. Which is why I said any country.

But it's not necessary to be attacked with nuclear weapons to use nuclear weapons.

The first and only time nuclear weapons were used, it was not in response to nuclear attack, it was in response to a naval attack, Pearl Harbor.

And we're potentially in a similar future possible scenario in SoH. Especially if "missiles run out" like they are saying now.

Wouldnt you support a nuclear strike against Iran if Iran sinks USA warships and kill thousands sailors?

 

[KAL-EL]

But it's not necessary to be attacked with nuclear weapons to use nuclear weapons.

The first and only time nuclear weapons were used, it was not in response to nuclear attack, it was in response to a naval attack, Pearl Harbor.

And we're potentially in a similar future possible scenario in SoH. Especially if "missiles run out" like they are saying now.

Wouldnt you support a nuclear strike against Iran if Iran sinks USA warships and kill thousands sailors?

If that scenario came true, then yes, it might come to that. Certainly not a guarantee though

 

[ShapurII]

Lol wow I guess i'm not that pessimistic , i found someone who is on another level

What happened to Iraq after the first Persian Gulf War?

 

[Desert]

What happened to Iraq after the first Persian Gulf War?

Got betrayed by their brothers in gulf states ?
got tricked by the U.S to invade Kuwait then they were attacked by a multi-states coalition ?

don't compare Iran to Iraq , Iran obviously has the edge and can harm all the area when it comes to war. plus you have a good opportunity , it's not the 90s anymore.

 

[unconventional]

Dude any deal will involve removing the blockade and sanctions relief. That means there isn't any economic strangling possible.

There will be no deal (of any significance, or lasting deal), or end to military operations against Iran; until the Iranian regime falls.

 

[Desert]

If that scenario came true, then yes, it might come to that. Certainly not a guarantee though

what happened after the Egyptian EW used against the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier on 12 feb 2025 and made the the carrier collide with a commercial ship near portsaid city ?

 

[KAL-EL]

what happened after the Egyptian EW used against the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier on 12 feb 2025 and made the the carrier collide with a commercial ship near portsaid city ?

This is the first I've heard of this. What's your credible source?

 

[unconventional]

Iran needs to have economic partnerships with China and other major economies (not counting Russia here, they are done); to circumvent the economic strangulation by the US/Israel and get their economy going again.