Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

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[Pakistan First]

1. High oil prices represent Iran's last remaining tool to exert pressure on the collective West. The West shows little concern for the lives of GCC Arabs. Elevated energy prices serve as a protective barrier, allowing Tehran to carve out diplomatic opportunities to negotiate a favorable outcome in this conflict.

2. The West is capable of maintaining this on/off conflict indefinitely, especially with low global energy prices. On the other hand, Iran cannot endure this level of pressure for long. Eventually, the Iranian state will falter if this war does not conclude on terms that are advantageous to them.

3. The SoH functions as Iran's 'nuclear weapon' in that it presents a 'use it or lose it' scenario. Over the next decade, it is likely to become largely irrelevant, as no GCC nation or Iraq is inclined to allow Iran to hold such leverage over them ever again.

The World and GCC hadn't really believed SOH would actually become a place where commercial ships / tankers be shot at. 2025 war also happened and Iran still didn't do that.

However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes. The buyers will make new arrangements for oil, will switch to EVs and alternates faster. Total reliance on oil will gradually decrease to sensitive sectors only (aviation, manufacturing etc). Secondly, the big suppliers in GCC would use pipelines for majority of oil export. The kind of leverage that Iran has today by closing SOH will decrease over time. To the point where world will eventually stop bothering if SOH is closed.

i think Iran is losing this leverage by insisting its control over it. Should only use it when time comes. If you place a permanent control over it then you eventually lose the leverage. Let's say war is over tomorrow and Iran completely opens it without any hegemony or tolls, then Iran will have a leverage because US would know any attack on Iran would result in SOH closure. But what's stopping US when it already know that Iran is already using its weapon of SOH all the time. I don't really get the logic behind it. Only logic I can see is if Iran intends to make money from it, but again KSA / UAE won't pay a penny as they will use other ports. Also if Iran will use tolls then forget about sanctions relief or able to sell its own oil openly to the world. Iran can get super rich if its allowed to sell its oil/gas to the world openly to the world.

 

[RocketLaw]

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[Mobius]

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[Mobius]

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These fat Saudis have no clue about fighting as they've got others to fight for them. They'd fall within days without external support.

 

[Immortals]

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[Flotilla]

However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes.

So what is the point of reaching a MOU, agreement, deal or treaty with iranians?.
If their military loosses are just negligible and US is controlling the SOH or better said, the collateral effects of the "non blockade" why to reach an agreement?.
To whom do you think are talking?.

 

[Ali_Baba]

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[Immortals]

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[Magi]

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5 million barrels a day pass through the Omani corridor.
4+ million barrels/day through Yanbu/Suez.
1.8 million from Fujairah.
5 million barrel/day reduction in purchases by Chin. China can sustain that nearly indefinitely with their massive reserves.
Iran is apparently selling some oil from tankers parked near China.

All the above add up to 17-18 million barrels a day.

20-21 million barrels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.

That means there is only a 3-4 million barrel reduction in supply. The world US strategic reserves can carry this forward for a very very long time. Oil prices don't seem heavily manipulated once you consider this.

Iran is burning the candle at both ends by failing to enforce an actual oil blockade and wasting time with non-entity Oman, while being under a total naval blockade and getting bombed every other day.