Unfortunately, the signs are looking pretty ominous for Iran. I don’t think Iran can be militarily defeated by the US/Israel. Any overthrow of the regime will have to come from within Iran.
But it also seems like the US/Israel will go to any lengths to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Part of their playbook seems to be to use on-off military operations to enforce a strangling economic blockade of Iran. Disenfranchise Iran from its neighbors, basically not have anyone deal with Iran.
After the whole Spain’s Ceuta debacle, looking at how most of the EU was willing to throw them under the bus, and China not stepping up to confront the US’s hegemony in the region (in light of the Iran war); I am apprehensive that Iran will be left isolated.
An isolated Iran will be an Iran that is strangulated economically, and that is the biggest danger for Iran.
Iran can cause its neighbors and even Europe, and other parts of Asia significant damage economically; but if the pain does not get transferred to Israel or the US adequately, I am afraid the US/Israel will wait till Iran gets economically choked. They don’t care about the rest of the world, Spain is a good example.
And by pain to the US, I do not mean pain to the Trump presidency. It seems clear that this is clearly bigger than Trump’s presidency. Pain to the US would mean the USD being seriously threatened as the world’s reserve currency, or a serious threat to US’s hegemony in the region; or a serious degradation to the US militarily.