Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Eşbah said:
1. High oil prices represent Iran's last remaining tool to exert pressure on the collective West. The West shows little concern for the lives of GCC Arabs. Elevated energy prices serve as a protective barrier, allowing Tehran to carve out diplomatic opportunities to negotiate a favorable outcome in this conflict.

2. The West is capable of maintaining this on/off conflict indefinitely, especially with low global energy prices. On the other hand, Iran cannot endure this level of pressure for long. Eventually, the Iranian state will falter if this war does not conclude on terms that are advantageous to them.

3. The SoH functions as Iran's 'nuclear weapon' in that it presents a 'use it or lose it' scenario. Over the next decade, it is likely to become largely irrelevant, as no GCC nation or Iraq is inclined to allow Iran to hold such leverage over them ever again.
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The World and GCC hadn't really believed SOH would actually become a place where commercial ships / tankers be shot at. 2025 war also happened and Iran still didn't do that.

However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes. The buyers will make new arrangements for oil, will switch to EVs and alternates faster. Total reliance on oil will gradually decrease to sensitive sectors only (aviation, manufacturing etc). Secondly, the big suppliers in GCC would use pipelines for majority of oil export. The kind of leverage that Iran has today by closing SOH will decrease over time. To the point where world will eventually stop bothering if SOH is closed.

i think Iran is losing this leverage by insisting its control over it. Should only use it when time comes. If you place a permanent control over it then you eventually lose the leverage. Let's say war is over tomorrow and Iran completely opens it without any hegemony or tolls, then Iran will have a leverage because US would know any attack on Iran would result in SOH closure. But what's stopping US when it already know that Iran is already using its weapon of SOH all the time. I don't really get the logic behind it. Only logic I can see is if Iran intends to make money from it, but again KSA / UAE won't pay a penny as they will use other ports. Also if Iran will use tolls then forget about sanctions relief or able to sell its own oil openly to the world. Iran can get super rich if its allowed to sell its oil/gas to the world openly to the world.
 
RocketLaw said:
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These fat Saudis have no clue about fighting as they've got others to fight for them. They'd fall within days without external support.
 
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Pakistan First said:
However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes.
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So what is the point of reaching a MOU, agreement, deal or treaty with iranians?.
If their military loosses are just negligible and US is controlling the SOH or better said, the collateral effects of the "non blockade" why to reach an agreement?.
To whom do you think are talking?.
 
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Immortals said:
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5 million barrels a day pass through the Omani corridor.
4+ million barrels/day through Yanbu/Suez.
1.8 million from Fujairah.
5 million barrel/day reduction in purchases by Chin. China can sustain that almost indefinitely with their massive reserves.
Iran is apparently selling some oil from tankers parked near China.

All the above add up to 17-18 million barrels a day.

20-21 million barrels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.

That is only about a 3 million barrel reduction in supply. The world and US strategic reserves can carry this forward for a very long time.

Logically some of that 3 million would have gone to strategic reserves in the past and would not affect economic productivity anyway. Oil prices don't seem manipulated once you consider these.

Iran is burning the candle at both ends by failing to enforce an actual oil blockade and wasting time with non-entity Oman, while under a total naval blockade and getting bombed every other day.
 
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Magi said:
If they are truly determined to use Ukraine against Iran, they can have Ukraine escalate by hitting Iranian ground targets after an Iranian retaliation. Or even without an Iranian retaliation. Israel can train and supply a couple of Ukrainian battalions dedicated to lobbing a couple of projectiles at Iran every week. That cycle will reduce pressure on Israel and sap Iranian missile inventory.

I remember the Ukrainian plane. It seemed like electronic warfare but Salami apologized. Probably under pressure from Zarif. Ukraine is like a rabid dog undeterred by a kick to the face. It is the rabies that is the driver not the dog. I don't put anything past them at this point.
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Are you sure about that? Because the way I see it, the Ukraine is in no shape to fire cruise missiles at a country 3,000 km away from them regularly.

They hardly have enough long range ballistic missiles to target Iran. They have cruise missiles, but how many can reach Iran and how long can they sustain that when they're already fighting Russia?

The Ukraine is barely holding the Russians off. Today they lost some 70 km² of their territory.

Iran's lack of deterrence even against a war-torn shithole like the Ukraine will eventually lead to much more devastating problems for us in the not too distant future.
 
Magi said:
5 million barrels a day pass through the Omani corridor.
4+ million barrels/day through Yanbu/Suez.
1.8 million from Fujairah.
5 million barrel/day reduction in purchases by Chin. China can sustain that almost indefinitely with their massive reserves.
Iran is apparently selling some oil from tankers parked near China.

All the above add up to 17-18 million barrels a day.

20-21 million barrels a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.

That is only about a 3 million barrel reduction in supply. The world and US strategic reserves can carry this forward for a very long time. Oil prices don't seem heavily manipulated once you consider this.

Iran is burning the candle at both ends by failing to enforce an actual oil blockade and wasting time with non-entity Oman, while under a total naval blockade and getting bombed every other day.
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Iran has lost this war, it is beyond clear at this point that the war is lost and signing our surrender is imminent. Another "Jaam-e Zahr" is awaiting Iran.

All because the incompetent fools in the Islamic Republic couldn't fight the US for 60 days straight, after 47 years of chanting Marg bar Amrika and Marg bar Esraeel.

And this is just the beginning. Even after signing our surrender, the US won't leave alone Iran. Mark my words.

Iran is going to give up on its control on the Strait of Hormuz, we will be forced to allow IAEA inspections again, eventually hand over our enriched uranium, and probably even pay compensation to Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates and other regional countries for years for attacking them.
 
Yeah it's not true. US sends Israel and Ukraine each month what they've used in the entire war with Iran

But it means an agreement is going to happen and a larger catastrophe has been averted

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Must Watch:

John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt vs Victoria Nuland and Mike Pompeo

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