Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Desert]

3. The SoH functions as Iran's 'nuclear weapon' in that it presents a 'use it or lose it' scenario. Over the next decade, it is likely to become largely irrelevant, as no GCC nation or Iraq is inclined to allow Iran to hold such leverage over them ever again.

How ?
you either mean that GCC will take control of Hormuz OR they gonna find a new route for their oil shipments , right?
They can't control Hormuz, they don't have the capability to do it (Alone).
And
A new route means they either use a land pipeline through Saudi to Syria then Mediterranean (which is highly risky due to the conflicts in Syria) or to Red sea then through bab El-Mandab ( where Houthis are there) or through the red to Egypt ( where we gonna milk them so badly).

 

[Immortals]

 

[Persian Gulf]

During a time of war with Iranian drones flying around after Iran attacked Us base in Kuwait and shipping in SoH?

View attachment 209442

Yeah, industrial accidents still happen, especially in Iran

 

[Falgrine]

“If Iran had the chance, it would wipe us off the face of the earth,” said Hamada Qrada, 52, a barber. “God willing, may the oppressors destroy one another and stay far away from us.”

Not just this barber, in fact this is the most common Arab view and sentiment for Shia and Iran.

No matter what and how much Iran/Shias would do to confront the common enemy, this ungrateful bunch would only become satisfied if Shias were to disappear.

I would say they definitely deserve the Zionist whip on their sorry asses. Leave them for good.

 

[Watandar]

Not just this barber, in fact this is most common Arab view and sentiments for Shia and Iran.

No matter what and how much Iran/Shias would do to confront the common enemy, this ungrateful bunch would only become satisfied if Shias would just disappear.

I would say they definitely deserve the Zionist whip on their sorry asses. Leave them for good.

I think that is one among multiple opinions documented in the article. It reflects an extremist mindset and the winners of such sectarianism and extremism are foreign forces and domestic autocrats. We should stay away from it.

Remember that bulk of Muslim countries are dictatorships with brainwashed populations.

 

[Nawnaw1]

Iran shouldn’t be giving exemptions to Russian or Chinese ships. Both countries supported UN Security Council sanctions on Iran for decades. Neither are cash strapped countries.

Agree fully. Besides, they can pay a few dollars a barrel. As everybody will.

 

[Flotilla]

2. The West is capable of maintaining this on/off conflict indefinitely, especially with low global energy prices. On the other hand, Iran cannot endure this level of pressure for long. Eventually, the Iranian state will falter if this war does not conclude on terms that are advantageous to them.

I agree. But... are you sure that prices are not being manipulated?.

If China is not buying that much oil, and also US and EU are just using strategic reserves that means that western countries (plus China) are manipulating prices.

I am not an expert in oil trade, but, I am suspicious, can somebody check if strategic reserves of western countries are being used or the evolution of their stock?.

Just asking. I have no idea.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Pakistan First]

1. High oil prices represent Iran's last remaining tool to exert pressure on the collective West. The West shows little concern for the lives of GCC Arabs. Elevated energy prices serve as a protective barrier, allowing Tehran to carve out diplomatic opportunities to negotiate a favorable outcome in this conflict.

2. The West is capable of maintaining this on/off conflict indefinitely, especially with low global energy prices. On the other hand, Iran cannot endure this level of pressure for long. Eventually, the Iranian state will falter if this war does not conclude on terms that are advantageous to them.

3. The SoH functions as Iran's 'nuclear weapon' in that it presents a 'use it or lose it' scenario. Over the next decade, it is likely to become largely irrelevant, as no GCC nation or Iraq is inclined to allow Iran to hold such leverage over them ever again.

The World and GCC hadn't really believed SOH would actually become a place where commercial ships / tankers be shot at. 2025 war also happened and Iran still didn't do that.

However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes. The buyers will make new arrangements for oil, will switch to EVs and alternates faster. Total reliance on oil will gradually decrease to sensitive sectors only (aviation, manufacturing etc). Secondly, the big suppliers in GCC would use pipelines for majority of oil export. The kind of leverage that Iran has today by closing SOH will decrease over time. To the point where world will eventually stop bothering if SOH is closed.

i think Iran is losing this leverage by insisting its control over it. Should only use it when time comes. If you place a permanent control over it then you eventually lose the leverage. Let's say war is over tomorrow and Iran completely opens it without any hegemony or tolls, then Iran will have a leverage because US would know any attack on Iran would result in SOH closure. But what's stopping US when it already know that Iran is already using its weapon of SOH all the time. I don't really get the logic behind it. Only logic I can see is if Iran intends to make money from it, but again KSA / UAE won't pay a penny as they will use other ports. Also if Iran will use tolls then forget about sanctions relief or able to sell its own oil openly to the world. Iran can get super rich if its allowed to sell its oil/gas to the world openly to the world.

 

[RocketLaw]

 

[Mobius]

 

[Mobius]

These fat Saudis have no clue about fighting as they've got others to fight for them. They'd fall within days without external support.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Flotilla]

However, now world is prepared for it. Its obvious that world as a whole will adjust to new reality as time passes.

So what is the point of reaching a MOU, agreement, deal or treaty with iranians?.
If their military loosses are just negligible and US is controlling the SOH or better said, the collateral effects of the "non blockade" why to reach an agreement?.
To whom do you think are talking?.

 

[Ali_Baba]