Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[hydrabadi_arab]

You don't know what you are talking about. All Fatah-1 and 2 rockets were intercepted by Akash SAM ... period.

Not even a glass was broken.

 

[Falcon26]

i heard there was a CNN report from a source during the war saying they were ... shocked by Pakistan's Response on may 10th. That pushed them to wanting to ceasefire.
Genuinely hope more details come out about what happened that day.

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[rafale]

Peak shameless behavior yet again from iaf

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More interesting bit, if this bid document is true, is that IAF averages 150 flying hours per month

What are PAF numbers for flying hours?

Isn't 150 a bit low? Or maybe it is because of high cost per flying hour due to twin engines?

@Oscar

 

[MS Sandhu]

restraint

Restrain=lack of capability

 

[MS Sandhu]

I also refuse to watch all Godi/ Modi cult youtube content , even for the sake of information or make fun becaue I dont like to give them a viewer count.
there might be one or two occasions where I just leave a flamebait ine liner after quickly pressing stop button.

Out of Billion plus people, there will be certainly weirdos obsessed with neighbors and what not.
The real backbone of India are those hardworking people who literally made India a space civilization.These are people of knowledge & skills and they dominate other Non-Indian Asians in global professional circles. don't be fooled by these nothing burgers.

 

[delta2]

Be careful as other nations do not conduct foreign affairs as emotionally as Pakistanis tend to. India's 1962 war with China is one major reason the Chinese decided to back Pakistan, so as to keep Indians off balance. If tomorrow India and China settle their mutual suspicions and issues, then the importance of Pakistan to China becomes negligible. So best not to overplay this hand.

Pakistanis should be thinking about what else they can offer or partner with China on, similar to how Israel is always wooing the US.

The Pakistani ruling class is the MOST ruthless and robotic in the world. Who told you the ruling elite are emotional about anything at all? They are as cold calculating as the next ones.

 

[Oscar]

More interesting bit, if this bid document is true, is that IAF averages 150 flying hours per month

What are PAF numbers for flying hours?

Isn't 150 a bit low? Or maybe it is because of high cost per flying hour due to twin engines?

@Oscar

Depends - on average it is actually ok for IAF - the PAF averages around that figure or slightly more depending upon operational deployments or exercises while the IAF has fluctuated between 190+ hours for the most experienced/ training units(TACDE) all the way out to <60 hours for some units operating Mig-29K. MKI averages 100 hours or lower , so does Mirage 2000 so Rafale actually has the highest tempo.

It definitely has a high operating cost but ADA pilots actually averaged that number as well(which is below NATO required 180 hours) so on par.

Do you know that the MKI has a higher operational cost to the IAF two years ago despite local spare production purely out of their own inefficiencies. Now they are making strides to reduce that eventually by 2030(unless they shoot themselves in the foot which is likely) with their super sukhoi changes they might have it to 75% availability IF EVERYTHING GOES TO PLAN(When does it ever).
However, they still need to make up for a pilot shortfall which I believe they intend to address through a combo agniveer(or whatever their part time program is) but India's own success is screwing it here.

Then there is their own fleet diversity issue - you have 6-7 distinct(not even cross pollinated) aircraft types. An Su-30MKI IP cannot supervise Mirage 2000 absorption(rare few exceptions aside) A Jaguar IP cannot certify Rafale conversion. They actually had times where squadrons DID NOT HAVE A IP. Flight hours are still great there but no one to verify if those counted for something. They have augmented it with simulators with Rafale's leading the way, and MKIs to follow suit - the Tejas is a joke of an impact on the IAF's strength that it does not even warrant a discussion.

Moreover, as it modernizes its fleet - it needs more pilots then its current(or even future) training operating at MAX levels can provide BEFORE the commercial sector scavenging can begin which focuses on experienced Instructor pilots - IPs. Ironically, India's economic success is making its defense weak here... only a hike in pilot salaries can help reduce but not eliminate the shortage or - again ironic - a recession lasting for 5+ years.

Now here is the bitter pill, the PAF is doing just slightly better than the IAF - not great.
I wont go into too many specifics but your F-16s are STILL the most reliable platform with the J-10s comparable - the JF-17 next, then the Mirages and F-7s. However, from a pure pilot perspective the PAF is now below required high standards of 2 pilots per cockpit especially as newer platforms are inducted.

However, as last known the IP issue has not hit PAF... yet and IPs are not overloaded in PAF so skills upgrade timelines are compressed compared to IAF. In this specific timeframe there is also the advantage of F-16 and JF-17 cross pollination(for now) where a JF-17IP may have F-16 background so they can supervise F-16 conversion as well. (@AeronautIR could elaborate further)

Events like 2025 force IPs for the latest platforms in combat roles which take away from training they could impart and slows the pipeline further. Then, many hours on Mirages and F-7s arent "suited" to what is needed for fighting with current combat so unless you are both replacing these platforms fast enough(to allow "better" hours accumulated) your "top" pilot to cockpit ratio dips further. So if you dont have enough IPs available for F-16s or JF-17s then you cannot convert those F-7s and Mirage pilots faster. I dont know the status of J-10 IPs but it is just one squadron.

One difference however is in AEW where unlike the IAF's 1 at a time per 2 days availability on Phalcons and Netra mostly still in proof of concept stage - your AEW averages above 80% availability.

One air force that excellent serviceability and then flight hours is UAEAF. They hit nearly 80% serviceability even today, with some pilots getting 300+ hours prior to them even joining operational squadrons. Then there is TuAF but they faced pilot shortages post the coup so their NATO requirements were missed for a few years.
But because they are primarily all F-16 - one IP can technically cover 80% of their fleet.

 

[Hayabusa]

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Exactly.

Indians talked so much about "destroying" our bases but keep avoiding about how Pakistan has actually effectively responded back with its rocket systems to the point where they agreed to a ceasefire.

 

[Oscar]

Another bit which is where the confidence(and fear when there is threat of mediocrity or economic considerations comes in).

From 6 key Metrics - the PAF LEADS not just the IAF, but UAEAF, HAF and TuAF.
TO BE CLEAR, THERE ARE OTHER AIRFORCES WHO WOULD OUTDO THE GROUP USED HERE AND I AM PUTTING THE EXAMPLE OF IDF/AF to downplay any "WE ARE THE BEST" ideas.

In addition, this reflects DAY 1-14 capability - not drawn out conflicts.

Why and I am happy if my mind is changed with logic from any side because I did not construct this with nationalism in mind:

P1 — Pilot-to-cockpit ratio
P2 — Annual flight hours per pilot (blended from all platforms)
P3 — Instructor Pilot pool health and self-replenishment
P4 — Fleet serviceability and coherence
P5 — Crash rate trend (safety as proxy for training quality and fleet age)
P6 — Institutional doctrine and combat experience

Rank	Air Force	P1	P2 (Blended)	P3	P4	P5	P6	Verdict
0 (Benchmark)	IDF/AF	Active ratio ~1.8–2.2:1; reserve mobilisation pushes to ~3.0:1+; commander directed expansion post-war	Wartime ~500 hrs/year; peacetime 200+ hrs; 200-fighter Iran strike confirmed	Dedicated sim IP cadre; 3,000+ hr reserve IPs; wartime-tested pipeline; expansion directive issued	Sub-0.2/10,000 hrs on legacy airframes; 200-fighter simultaneous surge confirmed operational	Below 0.2/10,000 hrs on 1970s–80s airframes — highest technical achievement in group	30+ months continuous multi-front combat; BVR, SEAD, strategic strike, CAS simultaneously	Exceeds all six pillars in combat-verified conditions; ratio gap being actively corrected
1	PAF	~1.6–2.0:1 est. (down from 2.5:1)	~120–160 hrs	Self-replenishing	2-platform coherence	No public audit - worse than IAF In certain points in time	Sindoor, Balakot, FATA drawn out ops	Best in regional peer group
2	TuAF	~1.1–1.2:1 recovering	~130–160 hrs	Rebuilding post coup attempt	85% F-16	—	Syria, Libya	Time-bounded weaknesses
3	UAEAF	~1.3–1.5:1 est.	~160–180 hrs	Contractor-supplemented	Block 60 ~80–85% - Contractor supplemented	—	Yemen- Iran; limited peer BVR	Elite boutique; scale constrained
4	HAF	~1.1–1.3:1	~105–130 hrs	~22 organic IPs	4-type transition	—	No live combat since 1974	Elite pilots; fragile institution
5	RSAF	~1.2–1.4:1 est.	~95–120 hrs	Contractor-dependent	Tornado drag	—	Yemen permissive only	Paper strength overstates peer readiness
6	IAF	~1.5:1 blended; 596 deficit	100-120 hours	7-platform fragmentation	Rafale ; rest mixed	Best-documented improvement	Comparable to PAF(in peer conflict); long-war mass advantage but no continuous strike/ops - COIN involvement in jet combat	Strongest on long-war mass; weakest Day 1–14

 

[rafale]

Depends - on average it is actually ok for IAF - the PAF averages around that figure or slightly more depending upon operational deployments or exercises while the IAF has fluctuated between 190+ hours for the most experienced/ training units(TACDE) all the way out to <60 hours for some units operating Mig-29K. MKI averages 100 hours or lower , so does Mirage 2000 so Rafale actually has the highest tempo.

It definitely has a high operating cost but ADA pilots actually averaged that number as well(which is below NATO required 180 hours) so on par.

Do you know that the MKI has a higher operational cost to the IAF two years ago despite local spare production purely out of their own inefficiencies. Now they are making strides to reduce that eventually by 2030(unless they shoot themselves in the foot which is likely) with their super sukhoi changes they might have it to 75% availability IF EVERYTHING GOES TO PLAN(When does it ever).
However, they still need to make up for a pilot shortfall which I believe they intend to address through a combo agniveer(or whatever their part time program is) but India's own success is screwing it here.

Then there is their own fleet diversity issue - you have 6-7 distinct(not even cross pollinated) aircraft types. An Su-30MKI IP cannot supervise Mirage 2000 absorption(rare few exceptions aside) A Jaguar IP cannot certify Rafale conversion. They actually had times where squadrons DID NOT HAVE A IP. Flight hours are still great there but no one to verify if those counted for something. They have augmented it with simulators with Rafale's leading the way, and MKIs to follow suit - the Tejas is a joke of an impact on the IAF's strength that it does not even warrant a discussion.

Moreover, as it modernizes its fleet - it needs more pilots then its current(or even future) training operating at MAX levels can provide BEFORE the commercial sector scavenging can begin which focuses on experienced Instructor pilots - IPs. Ironically, India's economic success is making its defense weak here... only a hike in pilot salaries can help reduce but not eliminate the shortage or - again ironic - a recession lasting for 5+ years.

Now here is the bitter pill, the PAF is doing just slightly better than the IAF - not great.
I wont go into too many specifics but your F-16s are STILL the most reliable platform with the J-10s comparable - the JF-17 next, then the Mirages and F-7s. However, from a pure pilot perspective the PAF is now below required high standards of 2 pilots per cockpit especially as newer platforms are inducted.

However, as last known the IP issue has not hit PAF... yet and IPs are not overloaded in PAF so skills upgrade timelines are compressed compared to IAF. In this specific timeframe there is also the advantage of F-16 and JF-17 cross pollination(for now) where a JF-17IP may have F-16 background so they can supervise F-16 conversion as well. (@AeronautIR could elaborate further)

Events like 2025 force IPs for the latest platforms in combat roles which take away from training they could impart and slows the pipeline further. Then, many hours on Mirages and F-7s arent "suited" to what is needed for fighting with current combat so unless you are both replacing these platforms fast enough(to allow "better" hours accumulated) your "top" pilot to cockpit ratio dips further. So if you dont have enough IPs available for F-16s or JF-17s then you cannot convert those F-7s and Mirage pilots faster. I dont know the status of J-10 IPs but it is just one squadron.

One difference however is in AEW where unlike the IAF's 1 at a time per 2 days availability on Phalcons and Netra mostly still in proof of concept stage - your AEW averages above 80% availability.

One air force that excellent serviceability and then flight hours is UAEAF. They hit nearly 80% serviceability even today, with some pilots getting 300+ hours prior to them even joining operational squadrons. Then there is TuAF but they faced pilot shortages post the coup so their NATO requirements were missed for a few years.
But because they are primarily all F-16 - one IP can technically cover 80% of their fleet.

Thanks for the usual detailed and factual response.

I believe even if IAF goes for Super Sukhoi or whatever it ends up being, their IP problem would worsen since it would be a new combat platform essentially.

With just 2 squadrons of Rafales, they really didn't build much pilot and IP strength there as well and this will hurt them most when they go for 100+ Rafales induction.

Is it also the reason why some Rafales were able to save their assess while others didn't even know what hit em? May 7th?

I think considering IAF budgets, they are just a poorly managed state owned organization. Their aerial debacles point out weakness in their trainings/tactics development and this is something that can't be fixed overnight.

This is also why I am all in favor for having higher pay grades and benefits in armed forces for specific units, this will help attract more talent. A F-16/J-10 pilot is a lot more worthy or valuable in terms of the return he can offer the state than say a Bell 412 pilot or C130 pilot. You can't box them all in the same benefits pay grade.

It is like in industrial engineering, Marine and Off Shore always pay high salaries and benefits because you really need people focused and working in those harsh conditions and having no quality people means you will end up soon like what happened in Ras Laffan yesterday.

 

[Yasser76]

Thanks for the usual detailed and factual response.

I believe even if IAF goes for Super Sukhoi or whatever it ends up being, their IP problem would worsen since it would be a new combat platform essentially.

With just 2 squadrons of Rafales, they really didn't build much pilot and IP strength there as well and this will hurt them most when they go for 100+ Rafales induction.

Is it also the reason why some Rafales were able to save their assess while others didn't even know what hit em? May 7th?

I think considering IAF budgets, they are just a poorly managed state owned organization. Their aerial debacles point out weakness in their trainings/tactics development and this is something that can't be fixed overnight.

This was the inevevitble outcome of two things

1) No major MRCA purchase over last 20 years, just 36 (now 28?) Rafales
2) Mind boggling array of suppliers

It is not just that IAF operate aircraft from around 6 different countries, they are not happy with just that, but they have also tried to integrate (with various levels of success) kit from different supplier nations (mainly Israel) with their Russian and European kit. As a result the IAF themselves end up having to develop, fund and text integrations that were not originally part of OEM's design. This must effect servicability and capability a lot.

Unsure where I read it but at one point the Israeli jamming pod on the SU-30 was accidentally jamming the planes own radar. Make of that what you will.