It can be useful to cut IAEA out forever after the war if Iran survives this. But they probably intend to negotiate over enrichment then get bombed again instead.
Iran never had a strategy for its nuclear program. Our nuclear program made zero sense both for civilian and military purposes. It was a useless, money sucking pit that put Iran at risk for zero return.
The sole purpose of enriching uranium to 60% was to use it as a bargaining chip for JCPOA II. I had already thoroughly criticized this stupid policy when Iran announced it years ago after Raeesi took the office. A stupid, useless move. The 60% enrichment added very little to Iran's nuclear capabilities and it ended in disaster, like all other IR policies regarding our nuclear program.
The US seems refreshed and reloaded compared to the end of the 40 days. They got what they needed. Iran on the other hand seems to be holding back. They could at least hit a support building in the UAE nuclear facility to retaliate the Bushehr attack but they can't seem to do that either.
Well, they've had 90 days to prepare for the next round and their industrial capabilities and economy are in no way comparable to Iran, which is fast becoming a war-torn failed state. They also have help from nearly all of our neighbors and most of Europe while we lack real support from even our allies.
The Bushehr attack didn't really damage the nuclear reactor, I believe. Or at least that's what the Iranian media claim.
Meanwhile the political fracture and disfunction is getting worse. On whose authority have they closed the parliament? That could not be more unconstitutional. Ejei won't do a thing about it so he is corrupt as well. And Khamenei jr just reinstated him.
The Islamic Republic had a winning hand at the beginning, particularly the first 3 weeks of the war, mainly because of Trump's own stupid mistakes. The US-Israel-Iran war had been planned to take place in late June in 2026. But after the January protests and Trump's promise of military support to the protestors, they rescheduled it to ASAP right after their military buildup had been complete. All this time, Iran had every reason and legal justification to launch pre-emptive strikes to stop the US military buildup, but we didn't do so due to fear.
The Americans were unprepared because the Israelis had convinced them that the regime would fall quickly. They had no contingency plan for the Strait of Hormuz and Trump believed it was impossible for Iran to cause such energy crisis. Needless to say, Trump had been caught with his pants down and Iran had a chance of winning the war by continuing it for a few more weeks until oil prices had exploded to $200 per barrel, as pro-Iran people always boasted about. And in fact, Iran was in control of the situation prior to Week 5.
After Week 5, things started to change within the system and Iran switched a winning hand with obviously false promises and hope as we see now. By accepting an early ceasefire, Iran proved that the US was in control of the situation, not Iran. Accepting the ceasefire gave Trump what he needed and he will surely have another go at regime change after November elections, and this time he won't be caught surprised again. So, Iran has lost the element of surprise, as well as lots of its resources. Right now the US is softening our defenses in the south and even Central Iran as we speak. Why would they do that if the Americans truly wanted a deal?
The IRGC and Army are fighting as well as they can with the limited resources and tools at their disposal, they're hitting fuel depots and C&C in neighboring countries, but it's most likely not enough. We need some sort of deterrence and political will to do more than this and we lack both.
