Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Khorasan Black Flags]

اهمیت بازدارندگی هسته ای 🛡

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واعدوا لهم ما استطعتم من قوه

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[ShapurII]

It can be useful to cut IAEA out forever after the war if Iran survives this. But they probably intend to negotiate over enrichment then get bombed again instead.

Iran never had a strategy for its nuclear program. Our nuclear program made zero sense both for civilian and military purposes. It was a useless, money sucking pit that put Iran at risk for zero return.

The sole purpose of enriching uranium to 60% was to use it as a bargaining chip for JCPOA II. I had already thoroughly criticized this stupid policy when Iran announced it years ago after Raeesi took the office. A stupid, useless move. The 60% enrichment added very little to Iran's nuclear capabilities and it ended in disaster, like all other IR policies regarding our nuclear program.

The US seems refreshed and reloaded compared to the end of the 40 days. They got what they needed. Iran on the other hand seems to be holding back. They could at least hit a support building in the UAE nuclear facility to retaliate the Bushehr attack but they can't seem to do that either.

Well, they've had 90 days to prepare for the next round and their industrial capabilities and economy are in no way comparable to Iran, which is fast becoming a war-torn failed state. They also have help from nearly all of our neighbors and most of Europe while we lack real support from even our allies.

The Bushehr attack didn't really damage the nuclear reactor, I believe. Or at least that's what the Iranian media claim.

Meanwhile the political fracture and disfunction is getting worse. On whose authority have they closed the parliament? That could not be more unconstitutional. Ejei won't do a thing about it so he is corrupt as well. And Khamenei jr just reinstated him.

The Islamic Republic had a winning hand at the beginning, particularly the first 3 weeks of the war, mainly because of Trump's own stupid mistakes. The US-Israel-Iran war had been planned to take place in late June in 2026. But after the January protests and Trump's promise of military support to the protestors, they rescheduled it to ASAP right after their military buildup had been complete. All this time, Iran had every reason and legal justification to launch pre-emptive strikes to stop the US military buildup, but we didn't do so due to fear.

The Americans were unprepared because the Israelis had convinced them that the regime would fall quickly. They had no contingency plan for the Strait of Hormuz and Trump believed it was impossible for Iran to cause such energy crisis. Needless to say, Trump had been caught with his pants down and Iran had a chance of winning the war by continuing it for a few more weeks until oil prices had exploded to $200 per barrel, as pro-Iran people always boasted about. And in fact, Iran was in control of the situation prior to Week 5.

After Week 5, things started to change within the system and Iran switched a winning hand with obviously false promises and hope as we see now. By accepting an early ceasefire, Iran proved that the US was in control of the situation, not Iran. Accepting the ceasefire gave Trump what he needed and he will surely have another go at regime change after November elections, and this time he won't be caught surprised again. So, Iran has lost the element of surprise, as well as lots of its resources. Right now the US is softening our defenses in the south and even Central Iran as we speak. Why would they do that if the Americans truly wanted a deal?

The IRGC and Army are fighting as well as they can with the limited resources and tools at their disposal, they're hitting fuel depots and C&C in neighboring countries, but it's most likely not enough. We need some sort of deterrence and political will to do more than this and we lack both.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

This right here is the essence of it all... the MoU and the terms...

Orange was never honest about negotiations or Iranian demands. He had his pinky stuck and wanted to get that extracted. Iran by forcing the terms of the MoU as it saw opened it all up as hoax it is....

However, something isn't right... hagsbreath is running this op as if he's conserving energy, a softening of the islands and areas around or cessation of hostilities any minute. All three assumptions don't make sense... US by prolonging the conflict will deprive the world of much needed oil... but much needed liquidity as well... the longer it goes the harder it becomes for debt ridden economies to sustain especially when the ammo US is using is hard to come by, expensive and takes longer to produce. The softening of coastline means a larger conflict and that cannot simply happen by haphazard aerial bombardment... the coastline is huge and intel is simply unreliable or not there... the least of this option is to unsettle of increase the cost of Iranian enforcement of Hormuz... and that again is flawed as Iran doesn't need a huge presence initially to keep the straits close... they can simply target escorted ships and arrest the movement... so impractical. And lastly, ceasefire to return back to the table... unless something tangible and in parallel occurs... there is simply nothing that orange can do to coerce Iran... because he's already bombing... already the method of last resort. Which means ... low on ideas yet crooked as ever...
Imagine, he twisted the arms of Oman right on the onset of MoU... had his own southern path opened and had zion do a parallel deal with Lebanese government... while simultaneously working on igniting civil wars in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.. using US backed militias there to use against Iran and targeting groups, parties or individuals amenable to Iran.

Which brings me to Iran... and that seems like another trap... the Iranian target selection though causes material losses is not sufficient nor intended to arrest US presence or posture in the region. The radars and batteries are understandable but everyone sees the presence in the statelets unencumbered. If that is to preserve escalation arc... tit for tat or dominate the escalation... is not really translating because Iran comes across as an enabler of the presence simultaneously. And lastly assuming or hedging for a full blown land invasion. Iran will see that coming from a mile away... with air cover and after making sure any resistance infrastructure has been decimated. In other words... the invasion that is as safe as possible for the US infantry.


Remember, rhe mere US presence in the region costs and arm and a leg. Besides the gulf monarchies are US collateral in this war against Iran... US is both using their facilities and having them absorb blows to further US presence and posture. Lastly Zion the reason for all this ... has burned every bridge and stands at the precipice of isolation. If US cannot deliver on Iran... while they have threatened both Turkiye and Egypt... are getting cooked like a frog in a boiling pot.

 

[Cateusm]

Striking power station in Ahvaz is inhumane. It is the hottest inhabited city in the world. No electricity during summer means no AC.

These are not just random targets. Every step they take is carefully thought out.

Iranian State TV denied the rumors of power outage

 

[retaxis]

So looks like it will be around 45 days before the world starts running out of oil if strait remain closed. Prices won't shoot up straight away but gradually panic will set it.

 

[RescueRanger]

Shot down Lucas drone:

 

[030292]

Pakistan seeing their mediation efforts getting smoked again
View attachment 205939

It was a ruse anyway, yanks used us to mediate as a cover up to replenish their depleting weapon stockpiles and update their target bank.

 

[Master Chief]

Again, why was Iran targeting civilian vessels?

With respect, this is ridiculous. The fault for the current conflagration lies squarely at the planning desks in Tel Aviv.

You will recall Tehran's insistence on an IDF withdrawal in Lebanon, which Israel disregarded entirely. Lebanese were dying and Tehran declared breach of terms. Events on th SoH specifically cannot be viewed in isolation.

Tel Aviv knows exactly what it is doing.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Anything new from Iran or just fired a few missiles at empty bases in Bahrain again?

 

[OldTwilight]

Anything new from Iran or just fired a few missiles at empty bases in Bahrain again?

well , look like Iran main goal is to force USA to accept its control over strait of Hormuz not turn it to total war which we would lose without nuke anyway .

 

[Persian Gulf]

Plus HIMARS systems, patriot systems, radars and fuel tanks in Kuwait

IRGC targets in its response to widespread U.S. bombing of high value targets across South and central Iran

 

[Professor Jiang]

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[Fasbre2]

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Most probably IDF airstrike, they are participating in the latest round of attacks without announcing it to avoid Iranian retaliation… the entity would have no qualms about hitting a live nuclear reactor..