Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Watandar]

You're kidding? You're treating two very different situations as equal. Yes, Americans are feeling the pinch at the gas pump, but that's a temporary headache compared to the crushing blow this blockade deals to Iran's economy. The article points out that the U.S. is taking a hit, but comparing annoying inflation to completely choking off a country's main source of income misses the bigger picture entirely.

It is a lot more than just a pinch at the gas pump. It also means higher grocery prices and more expensive debt. It means greater political peril in the upcoming elections due to an un-popular and un-necessary war. Finally the specter of a physical shortage of fuel causing major disruptions is getting closer and closer.

The first blockade didn't "crush" Iran's economy and this one won't either. It is yet another mis-calculation by Trump and his team of bozos.

When you look at the details, the financial impacts just aren't comparable. The U.S. is dealing with expensive diesel and some dips in the stock market, whereas Iran is being starved of billions in vital national revenue. On top of that, the blockade scores a massive, long-term strategic win for the U.S. By breaking Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, it forces Gulf nations to find new shipping routes, which permanently destroys our leverage in the region.

New routes or arrangements won't be available for years and will have their own vulnerabilities. The Hormuz card derailed the entire US war plan and changed its focus to getting ships with oil out of the Strait, something the US is still failing at. Yes the Hormuz card won't be available in future conflicts.

Finally, the idea that the administration was desperate for a ceasefire just to fix gas prices doesn't make sense given what actually happened. They deliberately chose to restart the blockade knowing full well what it would do to the markets. They clearly decided that stomaching some domestic inflation was a price worth paying to achieve their larger foreign policy goals.

This is the Trump team of morons, not the George HW Bush team that handled the 1991 Gulf War. Not a single objective of this war Trump outlined in the beginning has been achieved from 4 1/2 months of bombing bombing and more bombing.

You are of course entitled to your point of view.

 

[VCheng]

@VCheng and @Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ

Sirs,

Both of you are senior members, chaddo and mitti pao. Agree to disagree and move on.

God bless.

Of course. I am not the one using childish names in my responses, Sir.

I accept that it is not my responsibility to change anyone's views, for it is the equal right of everyone to think as they wish.

Facts remain as they are.

Back to my point related to this particular exchange, Iran does remain isolated geopolitically, and it is harming its chances of success in this war by virtue of that fact alone.

There is no avoiding that reality, Sir.

 

[RescueRanger]

Of course. I am not the one using childish names in my responses, Sir.

I accept that it is not my responsibility to change anyone's views, for it is the equal right of everyone to think as they wish.

Facts remain as they are.

Back to my point related to this particular exchange, Iran does remain isolated geopolitically, and it is harming its chances of success in this war by virtue of that fact alone.

There is no avoiding that reality, Sir.

Fair enough.

 

[030292]

Watch the Alex Krainer video I posted just above and watch only half hour of it and then sell any bridge or river or yacht to him as I was merely giving a gist of his video.

But my understanding of Alex is thus: The Western influence in the region is based on a historic protection pledge to the rich Arab countries and by now, as Alex says, the regional countries, with the exception of perhaps MBZ of UAE, have realized that it was a false protection promise and they are thinking of getting out of the old order but slowly, so as to not jeopardize their 5 $ trillion. And that is a practical route forward.

The question is why did these ignorant arab leaders stationed 5$ trillion of their money in west in the first ? Have they not seen countless countries getting sanctioned to hell and their reserves confiscated in western countries on whims of some idiotic barbaric western leader for the past 5 decades or so.

 

[BonPlan]

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2 minutes ago

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10 minutes ago

With the propeller intact, more probably an engine breakdown then a crash instead of the result of a SAM or anti air artillery.

 

[Watandar]

This would be a good card to play but I am not sure the Houthis have the capacity for it. They are in need of a full rebuild first from their tussle with the US over the Gaza war. Houthis also have their own domestic and foreign policy calculations.

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[ShapurII]

Look dude, you don´t know what you´re talking about and never have. You´re too emotional and too light on the substance.

Go google how the US was starting to turn against Iran DURING the so called ´shah´s reign. Yes. That´s why he was kicked out. He started becoming too ambitious for western tastes. Talking about islands, about middle east hegemony etc. Only then did the big nosed rat start talking about jewish influence in american politics. By then it was obvious they'd regime change iran.

You're really not fit to discuss anything here if you don't understand the main goals of the west, namelijk make everything small and manageable in the middle east. Arabs they can handle, Arabs aren't worth a piece of empty paper (I mean the PGCC Arabs). They're just a gas station and piggybank for the west. But Iraq? Decimated. Syria? Decimated. Egypt? Fully contained. And Egypt is almost fully homogenous, so difficult to tear that apart.

And Turkey is a difficult one for them too. But I promise, if the west succeeds, they'll fck up Turkey or try very hard to. No big countries with a lot of potential are allowed. No matter if they're super democracies, religious, nationalist, whatever.

It indeed has nothing to do with biblical prophecies, that's just childtalk. It has to do with a terribly weakening West, that knows it's can stay dominant in the region and therefore it needs to cut things up to at least have a say in the future. It's simple divide and conquer. Those who can't see this need a doctor.

I didn't bother reading your post, because I know it's just nonsense as usual and it's a waste of time and bandwidth.

But I can assure any average Joe on the forum is more intelligent than you who claimed Iran had defeated the USA and Trump was begging Iran for mercy lol Your level of intelligence has already been demonstrated quite clearly.

 

[tsunset]

This would be a good card to play but I am not sure the Houthis have the capacity for it. They are in need of a full rebuild first from their tussle with the US/israel over Gaza war.

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They are more than capable of right now closing Bab el Mandeb successfully

They just don't want to do it

 

[030292]

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[Magi]

Watch the Alex Krainer video I posted just above and watch only half hour of it and then sell any bridge or river or yacht to him as I was merely giving a gist of his video.

But my understanding of Alex is thus: The Western influence in the region is based on a historic protection pledge to the rich Arab countries and by now, as Alex says, the regional countries, with the exception of perhaps MBZ of UAE, have realized that it was a false protection promise and they are thinking of getting out of the old order but slowly, so as to not jeopardize their 5 $ trillion. And that is a practical route forward.

If you accept that these sand statelets are artificial creations by western empires for reasons of propping up western economies and force projection in the region, you recognize there is no $5 trillion and these emirs have zero independent decision making ability. Except how hard to smooth the rear end of each western leader.

Look, your heart may be in the right place. But repeatedly deferring to the usual youtube characters with shady backgrounds (Trita Parsi, Alex Krainer, this or that Colonel or "ex" CIA analysist) is a logical fallacy. It is called Deferring to Authority, and not a good look.

 

[ShapurII]

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This is but a fraction of what they breach and believe that they will carry on this prophecy just like Bibi said that he will carry the prophecy of killing babies and children of Ismael.

Iran was once the #1 ally of US in Western Asia and everyone bowed to Shah but he was not in any shape or form a threat to Israel or out of US chains. The current Iran is different and they won't allow it under US umbrella unless it is defanged.

There will be no current Iran soon. As you type this comment, the Islamic Republic is thinking of finding a way to negotiate with Trump and surrender to his demands. You have to understand that the Islamic Republic with Khamenei's policies has reached an impasse and can no longer exist in its present form.

 

[RescueRanger]

With the propeller intact, more probably an engine breakdown then a crash instead of the result of a SAM or anti air artillery.

Propellers and frames can most certainly survive even if the UAS has been defeated using kinetic methods:

 

[ShapurII]

Israelis believe in this nonsense... They take it literally. Israelis are a barbaric bunch like ISIS and dont understand partnership or anything.

They didn't cause us any problem before we decided to unilaterally severe our ties with them after the revolution and chant "Death to Israel" after every Friday prayer and even install a timer for the date of their destruction, besides the fact that most of our regional policies in the last 47 years has hovered around the idea of destroying Israel at our own experience. A policy that Arabs have benefited from greatly.

I'm sure you don't deny that it was Iran that unilaterally severed all ties with Israel and called for its destruction.

 

[Watandar]

Look, your heart may be in the right place. But repeatedly deferring to the usual youtube characters with shady backgrounds (Trita Parsi, Alex Krainer, this or that Colonel or "ex" CIA analysist) is a logical fallacy. It is called Deferring to Authority, and not a good look.

This makes no sense at all. Why wouldn't you listen to good faith analysis by people who have actual military or intelligence or diplomatic credentials ? Neither you nor I are clever enough to know everything.

If you just don't like what they say, that's a different issue.

 

[030292]

There will be no current Iran soon. As you type this comment, the Islamic Republic is thinking of finding a way to negotiate with Trump and surrender to his demands. You have to understand that the Islamic Republic with Khamenei's policies has reached an impasse and can no longer exist in its present form.

Surrendering to america/israel basically means balkanization of iran, everything that the country built with blood sweat and tears over the decades will be demolished to make way for a corrupt dictatorship who will give away all the resources of iran to western barbarians for free without even a drop reaching iran, terrorism running rampant, civil wars, mass migration and what not.