EugeneP
Trusted Member
ISW report:
| Iran is trying to deter the United States from striking Iranian energy infrastructure by threatening Houthi attacks on shipping in the Bab al Mandeb. Two senior Iranian sources and a regional source familiar with the matter told Reuters on July 16 that Iran requested that the Houthis prepare to attack Red Sea shipping if the United States expands its airstrikes to Iranian energy infrastructure. An unspecified source close to the Houthis said that the Houthis have deployed missile and drone assets near the Bab al Mandeb and are awaiting orders. Iranian officials, including IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, have previously threatened that the Houthis could launch another campaign against shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The comments to Reuters are part of an Iranian effort to signal that the Axis of Resistance could create another crisis for international shipping — this time around the Bab al Mandeb. This report comes as Western media has reported on the possibility that the United States could intensify operations against Iran. US President Donald Trump recently threatened to expand US strikes to include ”power plants and bridges.” It is unclear whether the Houthis would follow through on Iran’s threats. The Houthis have not yet closed the Bab al Mandeb to shipping despite numerous threats throughout the war to do so. Houthis Supreme Leader Abdul Malik al Houthi noted on July 16 that the Houthis are continuing to prevent Israeli vessels from transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden but made no reference to expanding this campaign to close the strait to all commercial shipping. The risk that the Houthis escalate against maritime traffic around the Bab al Mandeb remains high, however. Iranian efforts to stoke global concerns about Houthi attacks in the Red Sea coincide with rising tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Abdul Malik asserted in his speech that Saudi Arabia had “embroiled itself” in conflict against the Houthis, referring to recent exchange in fire with Saudi Arabia over Iran’s attempt to land a flight at Sanaa Airport earlier on July 14. Abdul Malik threatened to launch drone and missile attacks targeting “all Saudi oil installations and highly vital facilities“ if it attacks the Houthis again. The Houthis previously attacked Saudi energy infrastructure in 2022. Abdul Malik’s statement follows the Houthis’ warning commercial airlines against using Saudi airspace. Two regional sources close to Saudi leadership told Reuters on July 16 that Saudi Arabia is seriously concerned about Iran and the Houthis’ threat and is aware of Iran-Houthi coordination regarding the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has diverted 70 percent of its energy exports to its Red Sea port of Yanbu to circumvent Iranian attacks through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is striking Iranian targets further inland in southeastern and southwestern Iran. The purpose of these strikes is not immediately clear. US forces struck a hangar at Semnan Airport in Semnan Province, according to a local official. Semnan Province hosts several missile test and space launch sites. Iranian media reported that US forces struck more targets in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, including an IRGC base near Rask, which is approximately 130 kilometers from Iran’s southern coastline. The United States has struck at least three inland targets in Sistan and Baluchistan Province since July 14. Iranian media also reported that the United States struck unspecified sites near Kabudarahang in Hamedan Province, Khorramabad in Lorestan Province, Khondab City in Markazi Province, and Ahvaz in Khuzestan Province. A US official told Reuters on July 15 that recent US airstrikes could be seen as “shaping operations” to degrade Iranian defenses in case the US military was ordered to conduct more intensive operations. 
Iran Update Special Report, July 16, 2026Iran is trying to deter the United States from striking Iranian energy infrastructure by threatening Houthi attacks on shipping.
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