Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
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Watandar
Trusted Member
As Trump balks again at escalating war, Iran smells ‘blood in the water’ and looks to exploit its newfound strategic advantage, experts say
In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, President Donald Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink.
But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.
That’s as Tehran has used its proxies to expand the war across the region, most notably Houthis rebels threatening ships in the Red Sea that are trying to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment after demonstrating that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses.
“Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray,” Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.
He added that their goal is to prolong the conflict instead of inflicting more severe damage as Iran looks to exploit less political endurance on the other side.
“So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be,” Ostovar explained. “That is how they see it.”
Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy have slumped alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support slipping even among Republicans.
And now that midterm elections are just a few months away and gas prices are back up again, Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar.
An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to take advantage of Trump political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks fail.
That aggressive stance was on display last week, when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases in what Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack.”
By contrast, Trump’s continued restraint comes despite Iran crossing his red line for resuming all-out war after it killed U.S. troops in Jordan last month.
To be sure, the U.S. still retains significant military assets in the region and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iran that’s causing more economic pain.
But the U.S. and its allies have also severely depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of their energy infrastructure more at risk.
Global energy markets have also sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products, with analysts warning that “tank bottoms” will be just around the corner unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.
The combined effect is that the overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.
“Last night’s events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X. “It has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington’s calculations.”
Despite suffering heavy losses at that start of the war, Iran has since shown it can hold the global economy hostage by threatening maritime chokepoints and its Gulf neighbors, he added.
In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Trump on Saturday to express concern over the plans for massive new U.S. strikes on Iran, sources told Axios.
The kingdom’s de facto ruler reportedly urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the attacks, days after the Saudi defense minister conveyed a similar message.
“President Trump may still decide to order military action. But the fact that Washington continues to hesitate suggests that it recognizes the risks of escalation and is not convinced that a broader campaign would compel Iran to back down,” Citrinowicz wrote.
Nawnaw1
Registered Member
Mowing the lawn isn't done on a week to week basis. This shows the US was unprepared and/or has no answers for what Iran is doing right now or does not want to accept the price Iran can impose on it. This is indecision and impossible outcomes. Iran now has to force the US' hand.
Nawnaw1
Registered Member
Yes. It does show that Iran can fight back and strike at will. It's a question of who is willing to eat more costs. The US didn't go into the war with this current scenario in mind. It might have accepted it as possible, but it was hoped it wouldn't happen. Now the question is, can the US accept a real peace or will they try to jerk around for the next months/years AND will Iran allow itself to be jerked around?
Watandar
Trusted Member
I think most likely there will be a couple more rounds before the US/Mr Trump finally accept this war has been lost. Iran's strategy to avoid full blown conflict and instead wear the US down is risky but good.
Watandar
Trusted Member
Personally I am loving that the Arab client states are feeling the consequences of their actions in this conflict. Article also hints at the propaganda that these autocrats inflict on their people.
For much of the past month, Iran fired missiles and drones day after day at Jordan. But for many Jordanians, the blame for putting their small country on the front lines falls on President Trump.
“Trump is the cause of this war,” said Tahani Khalaf, 63 years old, as she walked with her sisters here in the Jordanian capital on a recent day, hours after another attack.
“America forced Jordan to become part of this.”
Lacking oil and surrounded by bigger powers, Jordan has relied on the U.S. for decades as a protector and for as much as $2 billion in annual military and economic aid.
Now, the U.S. needs Amman’s help more than ever. Jordan’s greater distance from Iran and willingness to let the Pentagon use its territory have made the country an increasingly important partner as the war drags on and Kuwait and other Persian Gulf allies have reduced their role.
But the expanded American footprint at bases in Jordan has come with risks, pulling the kingdom closer to a conflict that has already damaged its economy and shattered its sense of security. Trump’s decision to hold off on a planned attack this weekend provides hope for a respite, but over more than five months of conflict, renewed violence has often broken the calm suddenly.
Jordan is now firmly in Iran’s crosshairs. On eight of the last 14 days, Jordan’s military has reported on its website intercepting missiles or drones fired from Iran.
By raising the military pressure, Iran is seeking to stir up opposition to the war in Jordan and to the U.S. presence, analysts say.
I
t is a strategy that puts Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a bind. Even more so than other U.S. allies in the region, he is heavily dependent on Washington and one of its most reliable partners. But many Jordanians and much of the country’s large Palestinian population oppose U.S. Middle East policies and its backing of Israel.
“Jordan is so dependent on the U.S. that they can’t say no to them launching attacks from their territory,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israel-based think tank. “But at the same time, these attacks could weaken the fragile stability in Jordan.”
Amman. An expanded American military presence in Jordan brings risks.
Iran has fired at least 60 missiles and drones at Jordan since a ceasefire between Tehran and Washington collapsed July 8, said the Jordanian military, a faster pace than early in the conflict when the kingdom was targeted by 125 attacks over three months.
Most salvos have been aimed at bases hosting U.S. forces and have been intercepted, U.S. and Jordanian officials said. Three American servicemembers were killed on July 17 in a missile strike that struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert. Iran launched another four-missile barrage last Wednesday that the U.S. military said was “an attempted surprise attack” on troops in Jordan’s eastern desert. At least one attack targeted Jordan’s only port, Aqaba.
“Jordan’s orientation regarding the U.S. or the presence of U.S. forces is unlikely to change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s rulers. “But Tehran is comfortable just dialing up the pressure.”
Tehran hasn’t hit civilian targets in Jordan, but air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in the capital and other areas, residents say.
Air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in Amman.
That has sparked a rare public display of opposition to the government over the past month by over 300 former members of the kingdom’s Parliament, tribal leaders and civic activists who called for the removal of U.S. forces.
“Jordan is not a party to this war, and its people should not bear its consequences or pay the price for policies that do not serve the country’s supreme interests,” said the letter, which demanded an end to the 2021 bilateral agreement that gives the U.S. military “unimpeded access” to Jordanian bases.
Amjad Majali, a former member of Jordan’s parliament and a former minister who signed the letter, said it “reflects the position of the overwhelming majority of Jordanians. Yes, we support the state, but we do not support all of its practices.”
For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too visible to obscure. Jordan is an attractive base for U.S. forces because it is among the Arab world’s most permissive hosts for U.S. military operations.
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert and several other bases in the country host U.S. fighters, air defense batteries and other military units used against Iran.
The White House and U.S. military didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S.
A Roman amphitheater in Amman. Anger at Trump over the Iran war doesn’t translate into support for Iran among Jordanians.
Jordanian officials have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks as violations of the kingdom’s sovereignty, stressing that Jordan will defend its airspace and protect its citizens. But they also publicly play down Jordan’s cooperation with the U.S.
“There are no American bases in Jordan. We have American troops that are in Jordan as part of our longstanding military cooperation,” Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said last month at the Aspen Security Forum.
Iran filed a formal protest at the United Nations against Jordan in March, accusing Amman of “facilitating hostile acts against Iranian territory.”
Jordan has tried to stay out of the region’s wars since the 1973 Arab conflict with Israel. But after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel that plunged the region into conflict, Jordan has not only found itself attacked by Iran for hosting the U.S. military but also shooting down Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, a move that was unpopular internally.
Saed Hasan fears Iran’s intentions.
Saed Hasan, 41, who runs a stall selling mobile-phone accessories in Amman, said his sales have fallen steeply since the war began.
“Do you believe you could be sleeping in your house and a missile could fall on you? This is something we have never experienced before. Until when? God knows,” he said.
At the same time, anger at Trump for starting the Iran war doesn’t equate to support for Iran and its Shiite Muslim leadership. Jordan’s population is 95% Sunni.
“If Iran had the chance, it would wipe us off the face of the earth,” said Hamada Qrada, 52, a barber. “God willing, may the oppressors destroy one another and stay far away from us.”
Jordan Is Learning Its U.S. Alliance Has a Price in the Iran War
The kingdom has become a target for Tehran as the U.S. relies more on its desert bases
For much of the past month, Iran fired missiles and drones day after day at Jordan. But for many Jordanians, the blame for putting their small country on the front lines falls on President Trump.
“Trump is the cause of this war,” said Tahani Khalaf, 63 years old, as she walked with her sisters here in the Jordanian capital on a recent day, hours after another attack.
“America forced Jordan to become part of this.”
Lacking oil and surrounded by bigger powers, Jordan has relied on the U.S. for decades as a protector and for as much as $2 billion in annual military and economic aid.
Now, the U.S. needs Amman’s help more than ever. Jordan’s greater distance from Iran and willingness to let the Pentagon use its territory have made the country an increasingly important partner as the war drags on and Kuwait and other Persian Gulf allies have reduced their role.
But the expanded American footprint at bases in Jordan has come with risks, pulling the kingdom closer to a conflict that has already damaged its economy and shattered its sense of security. Trump’s decision to hold off on a planned attack this weekend provides hope for a respite, but over more than five months of conflict, renewed violence has often broken the calm suddenly.
Jordan is now firmly in Iran’s crosshairs. On eight of the last 14 days, Jordan’s military has reported on its website intercepting missiles or drones fired from Iran.
By raising the military pressure, Iran is seeking to stir up opposition to the war in Jordan and to the U.S. presence, analysts say.
I
t is a strategy that puts Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a bind. Even more so than other U.S. allies in the region, he is heavily dependent on Washington and one of its most reliable partners. But many Jordanians and much of the country’s large Palestinian population oppose U.S. Middle East policies and its backing of Israel.
“Jordan is so dependent on the U.S. that they can’t say no to them launching attacks from their territory,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israel-based think tank. “But at the same time, these attacks could weaken the fragile stability in Jordan.”
Iran has fired at least 60 missiles and drones at Jordan since a ceasefire between Tehran and Washington collapsed July 8, said the Jordanian military, a faster pace than early in the conflict when the kingdom was targeted by 125 attacks over three months.
Most salvos have been aimed at bases hosting U.S. forces and have been intercepted, U.S. and Jordanian officials said. Three American servicemembers were killed on July 17 in a missile strike that struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert. Iran launched another four-missile barrage last Wednesday that the U.S. military said was “an attempted surprise attack” on troops in Jordan’s eastern desert. At least one attack targeted Jordan’s only port, Aqaba.
“Jordan’s orientation regarding the U.S. or the presence of U.S. forces is unlikely to change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s rulers. “But Tehran is comfortable just dialing up the pressure.”
Tehran hasn’t hit civilian targets in Jordan, but air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in the capital and other areas, residents say.
That has sparked a rare public display of opposition to the government over the past month by over 300 former members of the kingdom’s Parliament, tribal leaders and civic activists who called for the removal of U.S. forces.
“Jordan is not a party to this war, and its people should not bear its consequences or pay the price for policies that do not serve the country’s supreme interests,” said the letter, which demanded an end to the 2021 bilateral agreement that gives the U.S. military “unimpeded access” to Jordanian bases.
Amjad Majali, a former member of Jordan’s parliament and a former minister who signed the letter, said it “reflects the position of the overwhelming majority of Jordanians. Yes, we support the state, but we do not support all of its practices.”
For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too visible to obscure. Jordan is an attractive base for U.S. forces because it is among the Arab world’s most permissive hosts for U.S. military operations.
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert and several other bases in the country host U.S. fighters, air defense batteries and other military units used against Iran.
The White House and U.S. military didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Jordanian officials have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks as violations of the kingdom’s sovereignty, stressing that Jordan will defend its airspace and protect its citizens. But they also publicly play down Jordan’s cooperation with the U.S.
“There are no American bases in Jordan. We have American troops that are in Jordan as part of our longstanding military cooperation,” Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said last month at the Aspen Security Forum.
Iran filed a formal protest at the United Nations against Jordan in March, accusing Amman of “facilitating hostile acts against Iranian territory.”
Jordan has tried to stay out of the region’s wars since the 1973 Arab conflict with Israel. But after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel that plunged the region into conflict, Jordan has not only found itself attacked by Iran for hosting the U.S. military but also shooting down Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, a move that was unpopular internally.
Saed Hasan, 41, who runs a stall selling mobile-phone accessories in Amman, said his sales have fallen steeply since the war began.
“Do you believe you could be sleeping in your house and a missile could fall on you? This is something we have never experienced before. Until when? God knows,” he said.
At the same time, anger at Trump for starting the Iran war doesn’t equate to support for Iran and its Shiite Muslim leadership. Jordan’s population is 95% Sunni.
“If Iran had the chance, it would wipe us off the face of the earth,” said Hamada Qrada, 52, a barber. “God willing, may the oppressors destroy one another and stay far away from us.”
Watandar
Trusted Member
How Iran is widening its pressure campaign to force US concessions
By Samia NakhoulAugust 3, 20265:47 AM EDTUpdated 3 hours ago
Summary
- Iran bets economic pain can succeed where military force cannot
- Tehran believes Trump will yield under pressure, sources say
- Iran sees ability to disrupt trade, energy as strongest asset
- Conflict is becoming a contest of endurance
Rather than seeking a decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war.
The goal, they say, is to convince the United States and its allies that containing the crisis is more costly than accommodating Iran's demands over the Strait of Hormuz.
The message from Tehran is that unless Washington accepts a new status quo that gives Iran a greater role in Hormuz, the conflict could spread beyond the Gulf.
By putting multiple maritime chokepoints and energy assets at risk, Iran believes it can strengthen its hand in any future negotiations.
"Iran, from the beginning, has tried to out-escalate the United States by stretching out its escalation options so that it always has something new to bring every week -- a new geography, a new type of weapon, a new type of target," Michael Knights of the Washington Institute told Reuters.
"The bigger advantage they have is not that they can hurt America or Israel," Knights added. "Their big advantage is that they can hurt the regional states and the global economy."
EXPANDING THREATS BEYOND HORMUZ
Having demonstrated its ability to disrupt traffic through Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil consumption flowed before the war, Tehran has signalled that no maritime chokepoint is off limits.Threats to the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure suggest a broader effort to raise the cost of protecting global commerce while testing Washington's tolerance for disruption.
Iran's approach reflects what one Gulf source described as a belief among Revolutionary Guards commanders that "they can get more".
They see an opportunity in what they regard as President Donald Trump's reluctance to become deeply entangled in another Middle East conflict ahead of November's midterm elections.
"The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in," the Gulf source said. "Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend."
ESCALATE TO FORCE CONCESSIONS
That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy.Trump said talks with Iran would take place on Monday after earlier saying he had called off an imminent attack in hopes of securing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, however, said it was not currently holding talks with the United States.
A senior Iranian source said Tehran's leadership has concluded that earlier attempts at flexibility only yielded greater pressure from Washington, reinforcing the view that leverage must be established before meaningful negotiations can begin.
In Tehran's assessment, the source said, Trump interprets concessions as weakness and responds only to pressure.
Michael Singh, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said Tehran believes it still holds the initiative, partly because the Trump administration appears uncertain how far it is willing to go militarily.
"The Iranians are trying to press their advantage," he added. "They're interested in establishing sovereignty over the strait and exercising selective control over the waterway."
Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, said Tehran is pursuing a strategy of deterrence aimed at forcing Washington to lift its blockade and halt military strikes. "They don't want the U.S. to dictate the pace of events," he said.
At the centre of the dispute is the future governance of Hormuz. Oman has presented Iran with a Gulf-backed proposal for managing the waterway, including voluntary user fees, according to regional sources.
Tehran, however, is seeking administrative authority over the strait and the ability to levy service charges on vessels. Washington has rejected any fees, insisting Hormuz remain an international waterway free from Iranian control.
THE ENDURANCE GAMBIT
Iran's campaign has produced a consequence that reflects the logic of its strategy. As threats have expanded beyond Hormuz, regional and Western powers have increasingly focused on protecting trade routes and energy infrastructure rather than intensifying pressure on Iran.T
he emerging Saudi-led maritime coalition exemplifies that shift. Gulf sources describe it as a defensive framework focused on escorting commercial vessels, sharing intelligence and safeguarding sea lanes rather than confronting Iran directly.
Knights compares the effort to Europe's Aspides mission in the Red Sea, which was created to protect merchant traffic rather than alter the military balance.
For Tehran, that dynamic represents a measure of success. Unable to match U.S. military power directly, Iran can still impose costs by forcing governments and navies into a defensive posture.
Each new threat, whether in Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb — that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — or elsewhere, increases the resources required to keep global trade flowing.
At its core, the contest is one of endurance. Iranian leaders appear to believe they can tolerate economic pressure longer than a U.S.-led coalition can tolerate recurring disruption to global commerce and energy markets.
The strategy also carries a diplomatic objective. By demonstrating it can broaden the crisis when necessary, Tehran hopes to shape the terms of any eventual negotiations.
"If there are going to be negotiations, they will define the terms," said Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former advisor on Iran at the U.S. State Department.
"Both sides are matching escalation with escalation."
Yet neither side appears willing to back down. As Washington and Tehran continue to test each other's resolve, the risk remains that a strategy designed to maximise leverage could spiral into a conflict neither can fully control.
Watandar
Trusted Member
Another good strategy, kick the GCC AI wannabe's in the nuts for facilitating this war.
David Goldman
A bird flies over an Iranian flag on April 27, 2026.
(Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters)
Iran’s strategy to counter military might with economic pain has exposed a vulnerability in one of the world’s most vital interests: AI data centers.
Iran has aimed significant firepower at its neighbors’ refineries, oil exports and tourist attractions, inflicting economic havoc on the Gulf states and the countries that do business with them.
Now data centers, which power the technology most crucial to the global economy’s future, are becoming targets. Iran has bombarded several of its neighbors’ data centers, and the United States responded by attacking one of Iran’s.
Data centers have long been cyberattack targets, but physical attacks are unique to 2026. It’s a reckoning for governments that view AI as crucial to their national security and economic growth — and for an industry that has gone all in on building expensive data centers across the planet.
In the war’s early days, Iran made clear that it views data centers as justified military targets. The IRGC published a list of 29 regional tech targets it planned to strike, including sites owned by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Palantir.
In a Telegram post following its July 21 attack on the Amazon data center, the Iranian regime said it struck the facility again because Amazon is a cloud provider for US military intelligence efforts. Amazon holds numerous US government contracts, including part of the $9 billion Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability project. Google, Microsoft and Oracle are also part of the project.
The region’s data centers are important not only to the US military and AI industries but also to the Gulf region, which fancied itself a third global AI hub, along with the United States and China. Saudi Arabia has dedicated a significant portion of its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund to AI, and the UAE signed a landmark deal with the Trump administration last year to build Stargate, a $500 billion AI data center – the largest such project outside the United States. OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia and Cisco all partnered on that project.
Combined, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pledged more than $2 trillion in AI-related investments with the United States — on condition that they also divest from Chinese equivalent technology.
That has aligned the region with the United States — and exposed their AI assets to Iranian attacks, noted Helima Croft, head of global strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
“On their face, these attacks and broader threats work to undermine confidence in what stands to be an important region for AI innovation and investment,” said Croft. “They also highlight the role that these companies play in warfare and diplomacy, as well as what lengths the US is willing to go to defend them.”
Militaries often run command and control operations away from the frontlines; enemies have sought to disrupt those communications through jamming and, in the past few decades, cyberattacks.
But data centers blowing up? That’s new.
The reason is twofold: AI has become economically critical to the United States and the Gulf region, so Iran can inflict damage where it really counts by disrupting data centers at a low cost – primarily with drones. And Iran can legitimately claim data centers are military targets.
“They don’t carry a sticker that says, ‘Military data here!’” said Andrew Reddie, professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “Data centers could be storing military-relevant data and be used for market-oriented purposes at the same time.”
“If you’re Iran and you’re looking at Amazon, it might as well have an American flag painted all over it,” he added.
But they’re effectively just giant warehouses with really expensive equipment inside, noted Philip Wray, head of property at insurer MSIG. There’s not a whole lot that can be done to harden them against bombs and drones.
That’s why the systems are built with redundancy — typically to protect against natural disasters, cut cables and the like, but now for attacks, as well. When one data center goes down, the data that was stored there and the compute power that it provided can usually be accessed from a different data center.
Despite the war, Gulf states remain loaded with cash and committed to AI. Even with all the money to be made there, foreign companies may think twice about building in the region if they fear their assets can’t be adequately protected, Reddie noted.
And data center insurance costs are ballooning — if you can get it at all.
“Some clients are looking at recent events and they’re thinking twice about whether they move forward, and some insurers aren’t comfortable taking on certain risks,” said Joe Macejak, US property digital infrastructure leader at insurance brokerage Marsh.
Even if they can get coverage, tech companies won’t be able to transfer all the risk to an insurance carrier, noted Macejak.
With chips, building supplies, labor and other associated costs skyrocketing as data center demand surges, that’s a lot of risk for a company to take on.
Especially if that data center has a giant target on its roof.
AI data centers have become sitting ducks in the Iran war
ByDavid Goldman
A bird flies over an Iranian flag on April 27, 2026.
(Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters)
Iran’s strategy to counter military might with economic pain has exposed a vulnerability in one of the world’s most vital interests: AI data centers.
Iran has aimed significant firepower at its neighbors’ refineries, oil exports and tourist attractions, inflicting economic havoc on the Gulf states and the countries that do business with them.
Now data centers, which power the technology most crucial to the global economy’s future, are becoming targets. Iran has bombarded several of its neighbors’ data centers, and the United States responded by attacking one of Iran’s.
Data centers have long been cyberattack targets, but physical attacks are unique to 2026. It’s a reckoning for governments that view AI as crucial to their national security and economic growth — and for an industry that has gone all in on building expensive data centers across the planet.
A new front in the war
Iran and the United States have attacked at least five data centers in the Gulf region, including a second Iranian missile attack on an Amazon data center in Bahrain late last month. Amazon declined to comment, but its Amazon Web Services dashboard has shown a disruption in the region since an initial April 30 attack on the data center, and satellite imagery showed extensive damage to the AWS facility.In the war’s early days, Iran made clear that it views data centers as justified military targets. The IRGC published a list of 29 regional tech targets it planned to strike, including sites owned by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Palantir.
In a Telegram post following its July 21 attack on the Amazon data center, the Iranian regime said it struck the facility again because Amazon is a cloud provider for US military intelligence efforts. Amazon holds numerous US government contracts, including part of the $9 billion Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability project. Google, Microsoft and Oracle are also part of the project.
The region’s data centers are important not only to the US military and AI industries but also to the Gulf region, which fancied itself a third global AI hub, along with the United States and China. Saudi Arabia has dedicated a significant portion of its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund to AI, and the UAE signed a landmark deal with the Trump administration last year to build Stargate, a $500 billion AI data center – the largest such project outside the United States. OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia and Cisco all partnered on that project.
Combined, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pledged more than $2 trillion in AI-related investments with the United States — on condition that they also divest from Chinese equivalent technology.
That has aligned the region with the United States — and exposed their AI assets to Iranian attacks, noted Helima Croft, head of global strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
“On their face, these attacks and broader threats work to undermine confidence in what stands to be an important region for AI innovation and investment,” said Croft. “They also highlight the role that these companies play in warfare and diplomacy, as well as what lengths the US is willing to go to defend them.”
An old problem with a new twist
Data centers may seem new because of the recent rapid expansion in buildouts during the AI revolution. But data centers have been around for decades — and they’ve been targets of war for a long time.Militaries often run command and control operations away from the frontlines; enemies have sought to disrupt those communications through jamming and, in the past few decades, cyberattacks.
But data centers blowing up? That’s new.
The reason is twofold: AI has become economically critical to the United States and the Gulf region, so Iran can inflict damage where it really counts by disrupting data centers at a low cost – primarily with drones. And Iran can legitimately claim data centers are military targets.
“They don’t carry a sticker that says, ‘Military data here!’” said Andrew Reddie, professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “Data centers could be storing military-relevant data and be used for market-oriented purposes at the same time.”
“If you’re Iran and you’re looking at Amazon, it might as well have an American flag painted all over it,” he added.
What now?
All that has significant implications for the companies that build data centers and the governments that want them to be built.But they’re effectively just giant warehouses with really expensive equipment inside, noted Philip Wray, head of property at insurer MSIG. There’s not a whole lot that can be done to harden them against bombs and drones.
That’s why the systems are built with redundancy — typically to protect against natural disasters, cut cables and the like, but now for attacks, as well. When one data center goes down, the data that was stored there and the compute power that it provided can usually be accessed from a different data center.
Despite the war, Gulf states remain loaded with cash and committed to AI. Even with all the money to be made there, foreign companies may think twice about building in the region if they fear their assets can’t be adequately protected, Reddie noted.
And data center insurance costs are ballooning — if you can get it at all.
“Some clients are looking at recent events and they’re thinking twice about whether they move forward, and some insurers aren’t comfortable taking on certain risks,” said Joe Macejak, US property digital infrastructure leader at insurance brokerage Marsh.
Even if they can get coverage, tech companies won’t be able to transfer all the risk to an insurance carrier, noted Macejak.
With chips, building supplies, labor and other associated costs skyrocketing as data center demand surges, that’s a lot of risk for a company to take on.
Especially if that data center has a giant target on its roof.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
Thanks for sharing these articles. Many like me doesn´t have access to the press and it is very interest to test the mood of international mass media. Thanks.Personally I am loving that the Arab client states are feeling the consequences of their actions in this conflict. Article also hints at the propaganda that these autocrats inflict on their people.
Jordan Is Learning Its U.S. Alliance Has a Price in the Iran War
The kingdom has become a target for Tehran as the U.S. relies more on its desert bases
For much of the past month, Iran fired missiles and drones day after day at Jordan. But for many Jordanians, the blame for putting their small country on the front lines falls on President Trump.
“Trump is the cause of this war,” said Tahani Khalaf, 63 years old, as she walked with her sisters here in the Jordanian capital on a recent day, hours after another attack.
“America forced Jordan to become part of this.”
Lacking oil and surrounded by bigger powers, Jordan has relied on the U.S. for decades as a protector and for as much as $2 billion in annual military and economic aid.
Now, the U.S. needs Amman’s help more than ever. Jordan’s greater distance from Iran and willingness to let the Pentagon use its territory have made the country an increasingly important partner as the war drags on and Kuwait and other Persian Gulf allies have reduced their role.
But the expanded American footprint at bases in Jordan has come with risks, pulling the kingdom closer to a conflict that has already damaged its economy and shattered its sense of security. Trump’s decision to hold off on a planned attack this weekend provides hope for a respite, but over more than five months of conflict, renewed violence has often broken the calm suddenly.
Jordan is now firmly in Iran’s crosshairs. On eight of the last 14 days, Jordan’s military has reported on its website intercepting missiles or drones fired from Iran.
By raising the military pressure, Iran is seeking to stir up opposition to the war in Jordan and to the U.S. presence, analysts say.
I
t is a strategy that puts Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a bind. Even more so than other U.S. allies in the region, he is heavily dependent on Washington and one of its most reliable partners. But many Jordanians and much of the country’s large Palestinian population oppose U.S. Middle East policies and its backing of Israel.
“Jordan is so dependent on the U.S. that they can’t say no to them launching attacks from their territory,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israel-based think tank. “But at the same time, these attacks could weaken the fragile stability in Jordan.”
Amman. An expanded American military presence in Jordan brings risks.
Iran has fired at least 60 missiles and drones at Jordan since a ceasefire between Tehran and Washington collapsed July 8, said the Jordanian military, a faster pace than early in the conflict when the kingdom was targeted by 125 attacks over three months.
Most salvos have been aimed at bases hosting U.S. forces and have been intercepted, U.S. and Jordanian officials said. Three American servicemembers were killed on July 17 in a missile strike that struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert. Iran launched another four-missile barrage last Wednesday that the U.S. military said was “an attempted surprise attack” on troops in Jordan’s eastern desert. At least one attack targeted Jordan’s only port, Aqaba.
“Jordan’s orientation regarding the U.S. or the presence of U.S. forces is unlikely to change,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s rulers. “But Tehran is comfortable just dialing up the pressure.”
Tehran hasn’t hit civilian targets in Jordan, but air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in the capital and other areas, residents say.
Air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in Amman.
That has sparked a rare public display of opposition to the government over the past month by over 300 former members of the kingdom’s Parliament, tribal leaders and civic activists who called for the removal of U.S. forces.
“Jordan is not a party to this war, and its people should not bear its consequences or pay the price for policies that do not serve the country’s supreme interests,” said the letter, which demanded an end to the 2021 bilateral agreement that gives the U.S. military “unimpeded access” to Jordanian bases.
Amjad Majali, a former member of Jordan’s parliament and a former minister who signed the letter, said it “reflects the position of the overwhelming majority of Jordanians. Yes, we support the state, but we do not support all of its practices.”
For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too visible to obscure. Jordan is an attractive base for U.S. forces because it is among the Arab world’s most permissive hosts for U.S. military operations.
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert and several other bases in the country host U.S. fighters, air defense batteries and other military units used against Iran.
The White House and U.S. military didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S.
A Roman amphitheater in Amman. Anger at Trump over the Iran war doesn’t translate into support for Iran among Jordanians.
Jordanian officials have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks as violations of the kingdom’s sovereignty, stressing that Jordan will defend its airspace and protect its citizens. But they also publicly play down Jordan’s cooperation with the U.S.
“There are no American bases in Jordan. We have American troops that are in Jordan as part of our longstanding military cooperation,” Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said last month at the Aspen Security Forum.
Iran filed a formal protest at the United Nations against Jordan in March, accusing Amman of “facilitating hostile acts against Iranian territory.”
Jordan has tried to stay out of the region’s wars since the 1973 Arab conflict with Israel. But after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel that plunged the region into conflict, Jordan has not only found itself attacked by Iran for hosting the U.S. military but also shooting down Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, a move that was unpopular internally.
Saed Hasan fears Iran’s intentions.
Saed Hasan, 41, who runs a stall selling mobile-phone accessories in Amman, said his sales have fallen steeply since the war began.
“Do you believe you could be sleeping in your house and a missile could fall on you? This is something we have never experienced before. Until when? God knows,” he said.
At the same time, anger at Trump for starting the Iran war doesn’t equate to support for Iran and its Shiite Muslim leadership. Jordan’s population is 95% Sunni.
“If Iran had the chance, it would wipe us off the face of the earth,” said Hamada Qrada, 52, a barber. “God willing, may the oppressors destroy one another and stay far away from us.”
Magi
Registered Member
Why do you think that?
They do have many answers. They are reshaping the Iranian polity by eliminating the figures they dislike. They are blockading Iran, degrading and demolishing Iranian factories, universities, conventional military, basic civilian infrastructure, and many more. Not to mention forming military opposition blocks against Iran. Every time they need a break to reload or recalibrate, Iran obliges.
The destruction of the bases isn't as significant as some make it sound. They were paid for by the sand vassals and will be rebuilt again as long as US controls the oil under the sand. Rebuilding them creates jobs in the US. The shot down aircraft and drones, and spent munitions too only means more revenue for manufacturing shareholders. There has not been an energy or stock market crash. The only real cost for the US are the 18 or so KIA. Even at 180 or 1800 KIA this is a massive win for the US.
Watandar
Trusted Member
Please read some of the articles I have recently posted to get a more realistic view of what is actually happening.
Magi
Registered Member
Your AI article further proves my point. We have known about high value targets in the region including the Intel chip factory, and others. The fact is Iran has generally not touched these soft targets with only a few exceptions including the UAE aluminum plant, the Qatari gas plant (some say Israel did this) and a handful of data centers. For perspective there are 5000+ data centers in the US plus 1500+ under construction.
Meanwhile US has demolished Iranian industry at the foundation level. From Iran's main steel refinery and nuclear sites down to water bottling plants and everything in between. Not to mention infrastructure critical to a modern society including universities, hospitals, police stations, and many many more.
I won't expand on the Jordan article. Jordan is "learning" nothing because it is not an independent entity.
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Immortals
Elite Member
The ‘Leaky Strait of a Hormuz’
Iran exports NO OIL while the Arabs continue to smuggle out oil. Iran targeting 1 ship every once in a while is worth the risk for these tankers if 30+ ships get out a week unscathed and only 1 gets hit or harassed.
Iran exports NO OIL while the Arabs continue to smuggle out oil. Iran targeting 1 ship every once in a while is worth the risk for these tankers if 30+ ships get out a week unscathed and only 1 gets hit or harassed.
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