Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

Medias also pressures the state by doing this, the medias are reacting way differently than usual about it

but at least have a serious target such as the Jordan Israeli embassy, i still expect strikes to be made tonight as this is a high level agression directly on Iran and reported as such by internal medias

There will be no strikes tonight because they are not prepared for this (or for anything) and don't have good options

I don't think they will strike any Israeli embassy directly at all (I hope to be proven wrong)

Iraqi millionaires in Kurdistan should probably evacuate

 

[tsunset]

There will be no strikes tonight because they are not prepared for this (or for anything) and don't have good options

I don't think they will strike any Israeli embassy directly at all (I hope to be proven wrong)

Iraqi millionaires in Kurdistan should probably evacuate

The difference is that the US attack on Soleimani for example, it was hard to respond to and had to chose the weapons and targets carefully

In this case any Israeli embassy can be targeted using Kheybars, there is no need for a massive plan to not escalate, there it is straightforward, same as when Pakistan did its strikes, just retaliate the same way Iran did and it will not escalate any further, what will Israel do if one of its embassy is leveled? Nothing of the same level, Israel is not an existential threat to Iran as same as Jordan

Israeli embassies are logically way more at risk of being targeted than Kurds in Iraq

I still expect strikes tonight and if I'm wrong, and that nothing happens in the future 3 days, Iran should reconsider and fix a lot of things

 

[Persian Gulf]

The difference is that the US attack on Soleimani for example, it was hard to respond to and had to chose the weapons and targets carefully

In this case any Israeli embassy can be targeted using Kheybars, there is no need for a massive plan to not escalate, there it is straightforward, same as when Pakistan did its strikes, just retaliate the same way Iran did and it will not escalate any further, what will Israel do if one of its embassy is leveled? Nothing of the same level, Israel is not an existential threat to Iran as same as Jordan

Israeli embassies are logically way more at risk of being targeted than Kurds in Iraq

I still expect strikes tonight and if I'm wrong, and that nothing happens in the future 3 days, Iran should reconsider and fix a lot of things

Soleimani was constant target for Israel and USA, Iran should have made plans for how to respond to his assassination many many years before 2020, but clearly did not

attacking an Israeli Embassy in Jordan (for example) is not so simple, Jordan will protest heavily and other Arab countries are likely to protest too. there is the risk that missiles miss the target and kill Jordanian civilians, and that the attack fails (although I don't think Jordan has serious anti-ballistic missile defences)

Israel is an existential threat to Iran as it has nuclear weapons and Iran does not

 

[Persian Gulf]

Zahedi with Qaani in Syria

 

[Persian Gulf]

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3 IRGC members and multiple diplomats martyred in Israeli strike on Iranian Embassy in Syria

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[Persian Gulf]

Reminder that this comes only a few days after massive Israeli strikes against missile depots in Syria, killing 38 Syrians and 7 Hezbollah fighters

These are decapitation strikes to prepare the ground for larger strikes by removing key assets in advance

 

[Champion]

Reminder that this comes only a few days after massive Israeli strikes against missile depots in Syria, killing 38 Syrians and 7 Hezbollah fighters

These are decapitation strikes to prepare the ground for larger strikes by removing key assets in advance

It's going to be MUCH harder for Iran not to openly respond to such an attack given its scope and severity.

This wasn't an attack on some villa somewhere in Damascus. Different nature altogether.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Champion]

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I really hope the lack of strong leadership in Iran that lead to this stage where Israel can do literally anything it wants, learns a lesson.

Tonight, many Iranians in positions of power should hang their heads in shame. They are not worthy of the positions nor titles they hold...

(It's me BlueInGreen btw lol).

 

[GWXP]

Iran will probably take out Israeli embassy in Jordan with Khaybarshekan missiles....

Pro-Iranian Iraqi militias already violated Jordan's sovereignty after they attacked US targets in Jordan several months ago.

Embassy in Baku can't be a target because it will complicate relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and create security problems in the South Caucasus (especially if Azerbaijan responds to Iran's attack).

Gulf Arabs are enemies anyway, but attacking their territory can complicate security situation in the Persian Gulf by opening a new front there, especially if Iran's attack starts a wider escalatory spiral.

So Jordan is the best option - the country is weak and can't respond to Iran's attack, while its population and wider Arab street will welcome Iran's bombardment of the Israeli embassy.

But the question is what will be Israel's response to Iran's attack on its embassy in Jordan....are we moving towards a full out war between the Axis of Resistance and Israel+USA?

 

[Mehdipersian]

Jews want war. They must achieve their dreams.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran will probably take out Israeli embassy in Jordan with Khaybarshekan missiles....

This risks taking us to war with Israel. For that reason, IRI is unlikely to pursue that path. However, such a dramatic step which puts the ball back in Israel's corner and flips their game of creeping attacks with no response by Iran on its head is precisely what is needed.

Other risks include accidental harm to civilians and the attack failing to achieve its objectives (e.g. the missiles fail/miss/are intercepted), weakening Iran's missile deterrence.

As far as I can see, Jordan doesn't possess ABM air defence capabilities. The US has a patriot battery on the Syrian-Jordan border and Jordan requested the US deploy Patriot systems on its territory to defend against ballistic missile threats in October 2023 but it is not clear if this has materialised. So chances of success should be quite good.

 

[lightning f57]

Iran should directly target Israel, they need to set precedent otherwise face more of these attacks directly against iranians.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Nasrallah is the last man standing from this photo, wow

 

[GWXP]

Iran should directly target Israel, they need to set precedent otherwise face more of these attacks directly against iranians.

Attack on Iranian consulate in Syria was an act of war.

Iran will either attack Israel's embassy in Jordan or the airbase inside Israel, which houses F-35s that attacked Iranian consulate in Syria.