Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Mehdipersian]

Well you just threw the only major Sunni group you had to the wolves.

After Rafah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will be a political party.

I’m sure if Hamas had a “do over” they would never had conducted Oct 7th. I think behind closed doors they are shocked Iranian support was as subdued as it was. Meanwhile, Iranian establishment sits at sermons and says Palestine is fine and doesn’t need their help. Laughable.

Muslim world watched as Genocide was carried out by the West. The 1960’s and 1970 Arab world would be turning in their graves if they could see what became of these so called “Muslim” nations. Even the bastard Shah wouldn’t have allowed this level of killing.

If the Arab and Islamic countries have the courage to move against America and the West, this genocide can be easily stopped right now. Iran alone does not have the ability to stop the war.

 

[tsunset]

Sudan and Jordan are the next major axis areas.

Sudan was a major IRGC partner before the Saudi V Iran rift. In fact, IRGC had warehouses in sudan it used to smuggle weapons into Gaza. People forget when Israel attack warehouses belonging to IRGC in Sudan back in the day. Sudan was shaping to be a major base of operations for Quds force in Africa and power project into the Levant.

Then the Shia v Sunni rift happened and that moron for brains leader of Sudan sided with Saudi Arabia (for money of course). Thus Iranian influence was largely reduced and IRGC prescene downgraded severely.

Now with military junta in power they have to its resumed ties with IRGC and Iran. And Mohajer-6 has been helping Sudan repel the rebels.

Can you tell us about your thoughts on Jordan? And especially the King of Jordan, is he really a son of a zionist/westerner?

 

[lightning f57]

Iran should provide air defence batteries to Lebanon and Syria to protect their airspaces. It will make the apartheid state think twice before its attacks.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Western media are disgusting

 

[Mehdipersian]

If Muslims don't do something about this war and prevent the genocide of Palestinians, we will be cursed by God. We are all responsible to do what we can. The least we can do is to be online and support Gaza.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Drone impact in Eilat, south occupied Palestine (fired by Iraqi Resistance)

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Likely an Iranian drone/missile fired by the Iraqi Resistance. Alternatively, an Iranian drone/missile fired from Yemen.

 

[tsunset]

Western media are disgusting
View attachment 30425

Never seen this level of disgustingness, i can't write more about what i think they deserve to get because i would be banned of the forums

 

[tsunset]

Iran should provide air defence batteries to Lebanon and Syria to protect their airspaces. It will make the apartheid state think twice before its attacks.

Hezbollah have Cube and S-125 if i'm not wrong, but certainly manpads

Even giving them latest air defense batteries, these jets are a hell to kill, they have tons of jamming and countermeasures systems and strikes from standoff range

If IDF discovers a new system in Lebanon, they will target them in mass in a raid, and if Hezbollah is lucky, will down a fighter/chopper but doing this means entering into a non-profitable and risky circle

Idle Al Asad should use its air defense, doesn't it have S-300, Cube and Tor? Either SAA is doing nothing on purpose, either they are missing all their shots, but they manage time to time to intercept some missiles and bombs

The risk of sending them decent AD is that it would be certainly targeted right away

 

[Immortals]

If they have proper air defense, the war will be different for them.

And if my aunt had a beard she would be my uncle.

You are not getting major AD systems into Lebanon without getting targeted. Israel will not allow that. So waiting for such a rosy day is a long long wait.

They need a weapon like Arman Air Defense.
View attachment 30422

Unrealistic. Expensive to operate and requires trained crews and a significant radar network. Not to mention next to impossible to smuggle into Lebanon.

Iran cannot go to war with Israel at this time. As we saw in the case of Yemen, England, America and others immediately came to Israel's aid. But the future will be different.

How will future exactly be different?

If the Arab and Islamic countries have the courage to move against America and the West, this genocide can be easily stopped right now. Iran alone does not have the ability to stop the war.

Quite simply: Iran does not have any way to exert enough costs on Israel in continuing the war. The axis has largely failed in preserving Hamas. None of the costs (Houthi attacks, HZ, etc) are enough to stop Israel. Nor did that so called “escalation ladder” that Iran’s officials warn about if Israel continued the war to other parts of Gaza ever materialize.

Can you tell us about your thoughts on Jordan? And especially the King of Jordan, is he really a son of a zionist/westerner?

Jordan will eventually be the next shoe to drop. I have talked to Jordanians, the situation in their country is bad. Economy is bad, large unemployment, high costs, large drug trade, etc. They use the US dollar a lot in their transactions which is bad for a developing country.

Jordan is surviving on Saudi $$$$ right now, it’s not sustainable. The king is being very slowly challenged internally. His grasp on power is weakening. Iranian Quds force operatives are in Jordan thru various groups. Large Palestine population lives in Jordan going back nearly a century.

Eventually Jordan will go thru protests and the resulting new government will likely be more radical and fractured as Jordan is major tribal country. All this will be beneficial to IRGC.

Iran should provide air defence batteries to Lebanon and Syria to protect their airspaces. It will make the apartheid state think twice before its attacks.

They have already tried in case of Syria, systems were targeted.

It takes time and extensive effort to establish a truly formidable air defense network. You need radars, communications nodes, tiered air defense batteries covering various points. Not something that can be done overnight. Look at Ukraine to see the costs Western countries have poured to establish some defensive elements.

It’s not as easy as dropping a few systems and calling it a day. That will provide point defense which can be overwhelmed.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, under auspices of Oct 7th, Bibi now has mandate to pursue HZ and Iran much more virtuously.

All these bluffs by Iran of advanced ADs being transferred to Syria were just that.

Israel had conducted >200 airstrikes in Syria in recent years before October 7th. Lack of Hezbollah declaration of war on Israel on October 7th is clearly not a causal factor here.

Incorrect. In fact Israel painstakingly avoided in recent years causing HZ losses in Syria to avoid flare ups. This is quite clear to anyone who follows the Syria file.

Maybe true in the past but was increasingly not the case in recent years. Even in 2008 they assassinated Mughniyeh in Damascus then assassinated his son along with Issa and a IRGC BG in 2015. Many other such cases before October 2023.

Does Israel now act with greater intent / less reluctance to kill Hezbollah fighters in Syria since October 7th? Probably.

And what is your solution here? Watch Israel routinely mow the grass in a south Lebanon and Syria.

Some of you seem to forget Iran’s military budget is limited and the Syrian war has already costed Iran tens of billions of dollars since 2012.

Every ammo depot and base that gets damaged requires money to repair —money that could go to much more pressing military projects.

These pressing projects mean some projects never get funding or at the very least the risky projects with uncertain payoff remain shelved. Again what type of impact could those projects have? We will never know.

But what we do know is money going to Syria reduces money going elsewhere.

Iran does not currently have good options in Syria. The goal was to defeat the Islamist rebels and keep Assad in power to secure the flow of weapons to Lebanon, and that has been achieved. At this point most IRGC forces can be withdrawn.

Until Iran/Syria is strong enough to deter Israel in Syria then any escalation will only serve Israel. So until then limit presence of senior IRGC members in Syria and take serious steps to improve OPSEC and survivability of assets (via large network of underground tunnels would be my preference). Also build underground storage and missile production sites dispersed across Syria. The weakness of Syria is the root cause of many of these problems.

If after 17 years (2006 war), HZ is not prepared for war with Israel, then they are a joke.

So it’s laughable to think that HZ and Iran don’t have a folder full of contingency scenarios and what to do. This is standard operating procedure by any serious military power.

In 2006 Israel was not prepared for a war with Hezbollah. Does that make them a joke? Hezbollah cannot be expected to launch a war that would devastate Lebanon on Hamas' timing without any notice. Being prepared to respond to an Israeli attack is quite different to being prepared to suddenly attack Israel because Hamas did it from Gaza. Hezbollah is not a conventional fighting force that can sustain offensive attacks into Israel, so how exactly they are supposed to support Hamas and attack Israel, and to what end, is not clear.

The fact is Iran doesn’t want war. They made it so abundantly clear via that pathetic FM we have. Anymore clear and they might as well hung a white flag on Azadi Square.

Once you remember Iran is run by factions who care about self perseveration and wealth, then you will understand why IRGC is not responding. Solemani had more discretion to respond vis a vi the Syria file, as his relationship with the SL was on near equal ground in terms of opinion sharing. During his time we saw Fateh missile fired over Israeli controlled territory and multiple major drone attack attempts.

In contrast, Ghanni is just another officer in the war machine. He does not have authority that Solemani did. Solemani would text message US commanders like David Paterus and taunt them. The man was a legend.

Agreed. Abdollahian's statements in the early days were stupid, but that's not new for an Iranian minister.

 

[Persian Gulf]

How much more you want to grow? How much more missiles do you need? Where will you store them? Hezbollah already sits on over 100,000 rockets and missiles. To put it in perspective they have nearly as much rockets and missiles as the State of Russia did prior Ukraine invasion.

Hezbollah has reach critical mass. There is no more “wonder weapons” to add that would change reality on the ground significantly.

Vast majority of those are small unguided rockets, so the comparison to Russia is not really useful.

Disagree. Tens of thousands of Zelzal rockets could be upgraded with precision guidance kits, stockpile of SRBMs and ASBMs is likely still low, stockpiles of more advanced UAVs like Shahed-136 is also likely low. Fajr-5 with thermobaric warhead (and airburst version) would also be important weapons. Good progress seems to have been made in building inventories of advanced ATGMs but we haven't seen evidence of huge quantities of the rest.

“The right time”

And when is that exactly? Quds has been under occupation coming up on a century. This nonsensical statement of “a right time” is the same thing Pakistan tells itself regarding Kashmir or China tells itself about Taiwan.

At least be honest and say the entire point of the axis groups is to protect Iranian soil.

But when that redline is violated, what will you all say then? I’m sure you will Surprised when Iran takes the path of least resistance in that day as well.

When they have a strong majority of domestic Lebanese support for such an operation, for starters.

The purpose of Hezbollah is not to protect Iranian soil but to defend Lebanese soil and, as a bonus for Iran, to keep Israel busy on its northern border.

Well you just threw the only major Sunni group you had to the wolves.

I did?

After Rafah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will be a political party.

I’m sure if Hamas had a “do over” they would never had conducted Oct 7th. I think behind closed doors they are shocked Iranian support was as subdued as it was. Meanwhile, Iranian establishment sits at sermons and says Palestine is fine and doesn’t need their help. Laughable.

I am not sure what they expected from Iran 1200km away after they didn't bother to give Iran warning in advance. Despite the distance and neighbouring Arab apathy (at best), Jordan and Saudi act as Israel's air defence shield and Jordan intercepts many weapons smuggling attempts, so it's not like Iran is not doing anything. Clearly a lot is happening behind the scenes which we do not see.

Iranian rhetoric is delusional, sure, but they are hardly going to be alarmist and serve Israel's agenda by telling everyone that Israel is defeating Hamas.

That said, Israel's standing across the world has been irreparably damaged. Majority of Americans now oppose Israel's war and Israel has probably permanently lost the younger generation across the West. The 'antisemitism' card (the Zionists' favourite tool to stifle dissent) has lost a lot of its impact since they overused it in the most absurd ways imaginable.

Muslim world watched as Genocide was carried out by the West. The 1960’s and 1970 Arab world would be turning in their graves if they could see what became of these so called “Muslim” nations. Even the bastard Shah wouldn’t have allowed this level of killing.

Indeed. Egypt and Jordan in particular must take a lot of responsibility for this genocide.

 

[jauk]

If the Arab and Islamic countries have the courage to move against America and the West, this genocide can be easily stopped right now. Iran alone does not have the ability to stop the war.

It does. It won’t. It shouldn’t.

 

[Tehrani021]

It does. It won’t. It shouldn’t.

Wrong, right, wrong.

 

[Flotilla]

Jordan is surviving on Saudi $$$$ right now, it’s not sustainable. The king is being very slowly challenged internally. His grasp on power is weakening. Iranian Quds force operatives are in Jordan thru various groups. Large Palestine population lives in Jordan going back nearly a century.

Really interesting. I thought Jordania was the only arab country sorrounding Israel that was successful in economic and social development.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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I am not sure why Iraqi Resistance forces have not been equipped with larger quantities of Shahed-136 and other drones to constantly attack Israel. Houthis are doing what they can but they are 2000km from Tel Aviv and 1700km from Eilat (with Saudi Arabia acting as Israel's air defence shield in between and a massive naval coalition littered around the Yemeni coast).

By contrast, Qa'im in Iraq (next to Al Bukamal on the border with Syria) is only c. 600km from Tel Aviv. Less than 500km if they launch from slightly further west. 500-600km range is perfect for Fateh-313, Raad-500, Ya Ali/Quds LACM, Shahed-136 etc. Longer term, 500-700km range ASCM/ASBM can also be supplied to enable Iraqi Resistance to strike targets in the Mediterranean off the coast of Israel. We saw anti-ship version of Raad-500 in service with Houthis, so why not in Iraq?

So far we only saw the Iraqi Resistance armed with smaller UAVs like Shahed-101 and SRBMs like Fath-360.

And it's harder for Israel to sustain constant bombing runs deep into Iraq vs Syria on their border, so Iraq is a stronger base of operations (with secure supply lines direct from Iran).