Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[AmirIGM]

What can Iran do to prevent Israel trying to sink the Behshad?

If Iran continues to do nothing and take sucker punches like this Israel will conclude (correctly) that they can sink the Behshad with little to no consequences.

 

[Immortals]

if this was the case, why hasn't Israel just directly struck Iran and started the war itself?

Why cut the tree when you are still pruning the branches?

With Hamas eliminated, Israel will have breathing room. If Bibi and Israeli establishment is very emboldened they will attack Lebanon by invading thru the Golan not South Lebanon as HZ expects.

The political climate makes sense to wait to see if Trump gets elected. Under Trump, Israel will have much easier hand to play.

Does Israel have no targets of value that it has to worry about being targeted in response?

Israeli is mostly conventional, it’s most prized items are it’s AD systems, F-35’s, and Submarines. Nothing the US won’t replace.

If iran goes for economic targets (seaports) than that opens up Iran to tit for tat. We already saw Iranian facilities get hacked. Now imagine all those floating oil platforms or Khargh oil terminal being attacked.

Like I said, Israel knows Iran has more to lose. Israel has America and Western world behind it. It’s emboldened. Who does Iran have behind them? China? Nope. Russia? Nope. Iran has no one besides some miltias.

is your point that Israel is capable of doing huge amounts more damage to Iran than vice versa?

Yes, outside of all our war it’s difficult for Iran to inflict as much pain. Israel is tiny and highly protected. Iran is vast in size and still has quite a lot of vulnerabilities.

Plus at the end of the day. The ruling families don’t want conflict they want to amass wealth and live the good life. Khomeini family, Khamenai Family, Larjani family, Rafsanjani family, and many many others that make up the power factions of Iran want to retain and expand power internally. You think they care if a few soldiers die here or there in a shadow war? Absolutely not.

IRGC hands are tied and so are SL himself. They cannot go against the factions of the Republic. There would need to be a general consensus by all factions that risk of war is worth the price of establishing deterrence.

 

[Immortals]

Congratulations , you now represent the opposite spectrum of madness as salar haq. Your points make no sense at all .

Drop the call of duty controller and realize nukes don’t change anything when your opponent calls your bluff.

US and NATO openly defying Russian threats. Went from no lethal aid to Ukraine, to just bullets, to artillery shells, to air defense systems, missiles, tanks, and fighter jets.

You know why? because NATO called Russia’s bluff. Russia like Iran is scared of direct conflict. Russia avoided it until the 11th hour then invaded a much stronger Ukraine than in 2014. Iran is avoiding it till it’s 11th hour comes as well.

So tell me? What has the 2000+ nukes Russia gotten it exactly in last 10 years?

If Iran continues to do nothing and take sucker punches like this Israel will conclude (correctly) that they can sink the Behshad with little to no consequences.

I said several days ago Iranian soil will be attacked and sure enough it happened. And sure enough Iran gave the same BS response.

Only a matter of time till Beshad or a overtly military target gets attacked. I mean Israel has already attacked floating bases before and US did a cyber strike on Beshad just recently. So it won’t even be as Suprising as this consulate attack.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Iran should attack Israel from its own soil. This is a war that the Jews themselves started.

 

[guangdongt]

Drop the call of duty controller and realize nukes don’t change anything when your opponent calls your bluff.

US and NATO openly defying Russian threats. Went from no lethal aid to Ukraine, to just bullets, to artillery shells, to air defense systems, missiles, tanks, and fighter jets.

You know why? because NATO called Russia’s bluff. Russia like Iran is scared of direct conflict. Russia avoided it until the 11th hour then invaded a much stronger Ukraine than in 2014. Iran is avoiding it till it’s 11th hour comes as well.

So tell me? What has the 2000+ nukes Russia gotten it exactly in last 10 years?



I said several days ago Iranian soil will be attacked and sure enough it happened. And sure enough Iran gave the same BS response.

Only a matter of time till Beshad or a overtly military target gets attacked. I mean Israel has already attacked floating bases before and US did a cyber strike on Beshad just recently.

I want to say that the reason why NATO dare not venture into Russia is precisely because Russia's nuclear weapons are capable of destroying the world, otherwise the main battlefield for NATO's conventional weapons would not be in Ukraine.The Russo Ukrainian War tells everyone the cruelest fact: the bottom card of a great power must never be without nuclear weapons

 

[Persian Gulf]

Oh yeah what a great example Russia—for my point.

The country that has its energy facilties attacked, it’s land invaded, it’s capital attacked by drones, it’s cities attacked, lost 100,000+ soldiers and 100B+ in economic damages and 400B+ in liquid assets frozen around the world……yet not even a tatical nuke fired against a much weaker country with no nukes to boot let alone one that can ensure MAD.

You know why? Because US/NATO said if you use even a single low yield nuke in Ukraine we will target all Russian assets in Ukraine. Then you will have to decide between WW3 or backing down.

Russia's opponent does not have nuclear weapons and Russia invaded Ukraine. But still the West hesitates to send Ukraine weapons that can reach into Russia

Israel is not going to all these lengths for 30+ years to prevent anyone else having nukes because they are so useless

Like I said, Israel knows Iran has more to lose. Israel has America and Western world behind it. It’s emboldened. Who does Iran have behind them? China? Nope. Russia? Nope. Iran has no one besides some miltias.

Israel has nuclear facilities, power plants, ports and everything else that Iran has. Israel also cannot absorb the same level of losses that Iran can. So I don't agree that Israel can start a war with nothing to lose and just destroy all of Iran's oil terminals for fun.

IRGC hands are tied and so are SL himself. They cannot go against the factions of the Republic. There would need to be a general consensus by all factions that risk of war is worth the price of establishing deterrence.

IRGC holds the power in Iran and unless they want to be killed the moment they leave Iran it is in their interest to restore some kind of deterrence, even at the cost of significant short term losses

You yourself said previously that the perfect moment will never arrive

 

[Persian Gulf]

Good analysis on the role of Syria within the Resistance:

Nawwaf Moussawi, a Hezbollah official, stated last week on an interview on Al Mayadeen TV that today, Hezbollah stocks weapons in 1 month the equivalent of what it used to stock in 6 months, if not 1 year, before Al Aqsa Flood.

When Hezbollah says there's 100,000 resistance fighters, it means they also have the equipment and ammunitions for 100,000 fighters. All this is possible because of #Syria.

Arab classical armies cannot confront Israel head to head, they will all lose as they lost in the past. When people call on #Jordan and #Egypt to take action, no one is asking their armies to open a front against #Israel. What is needed is the political stance against Israel, and the halting of security cooperation with Israel. This alone puts the existence of Israel in danger.

Why does Israel bomb Syria? Because Syrian land is used for the arms race between the resistance and Israel, and there's no security pacts in the lands of Syria with Israel. Israel is not bombing Egypt or Jordan because they are security providers to Israel. Syria is not.

When will Syria retaliate? Syria as a state with its army cannot retaliate against Israel. Its ''retaliation'' is doubling down the supply routes and aramament of the resistance. The goal of the Israeli strikes is to disrupt the logistics, Syria focuses on ensuring the continuation of the mission. Syria is deterred and cannot stop the Israeli strikes, but what it can do and it does is to work 24/7 on the logistics.

 

[Xerxes22]

"Drop the call of duty controller and realize nukes don’t change anything when your opponent calls your bluff"

speaking of games and gaming consoles in an attempt to explain a point instead of using proper reasoning and outlining precise scenarios is intellectually a primitive thing to do, thus ur representation in the opposite spectrum of madness as brother salar. @Immortals

 

[Immortals]

Russia's opponent does not have nuclear weapons and Russia invaded Ukraine. But still the West hesitates to send Ukraine weapons that can reach into Russia

Again you have told me what has Russia gotten from having nukes? Even Turkey has armed Ukraine and it’s TB2 drones led to countless Russian deaths.

Israel is not going to all these lengths for 30+ years to prevent anyone else having nukes because they are so useless

As Supreme Leader said, “nukes are an excuse. Solve one problem they will raise another”. And he is right, we have seen US say Iran needs to negotiate on its missile program.

Israel obviously would rather Iran not have nuclear weapons, but it’s not the end of world if Iran does get it. I mean Iran is already a latent power and enriching at near weapons grade levels with near weapons grade stockpile of uranium ready. If nukes were seriously that much of a threat, you think Israel and US would have allowed Iran to slowly walk this path? Come on now

Israel has nuclear facilities, power plants, ports and everything else that Iran has. Israel also cannot absorb the same level of losses that Iran can.

Israel has a much denser air defense network than Iran. Iran has to cover immense territory with mountains and valleys that make radar signals get lost.

Israel can have engineers around the world fixing its faculties the day after an attack. Who will come to Iran’s aid?

Like I said Iran can do considerable damage in a major war. But tit for tat, Iran has more pain points in a limited skirmish.

So I don't agree that Israel can start a war with nothing to lose and just destroy all of Iran's oil terminals for fun.

I didn’t say Israel can start a war with nothing. I said Israel isn’t afraid of a war with Iran and that is true. And in a limited skirmish we have seen in this shadow war Iran has taken more hits than Israel. So a open skirmish would largely be the same.

Yes, if it’s gloves off open warfare then of course Iran can fire 5,000 missiles at Israel and cause immense damage. But both parties wouldn’t want to get to that point.

IRGC holds the power in Iran

No, no it does not. IRGC is a faction, but it does not hold the power in Iran. I don’t know where you read this.

and unless they want to be killed the moment they leave Iran it is in their interest to restore some kind of deterrence, even at the cost of significant short term losses

I don’t understand what Irani bazi this is. You are basically agreeing with my original point.

You went from “Iran cannot afford attacking Israel because of its potential response” to stating that Iran needs to attack Israel to establish deference regardless of losses that happen in retilation.

Congrats for coming to my side.

You yourself said previously that the perfect moment will never arrive

Yes. That is why i said it makes sense for Iran to go for escalation.

Iran is one or two Amini-type social unrest from having a drastic government change (internally of course). The factions are at odds on how to govern till to 2050.

When Khameani passes away who knows what happens after. The government that takes control could be substantially different or less receptive towards external expansion.

So for Iran, post Khameani era is a major question mark. So waiting for the “perfect time” may never arrive.

 

[Persian Gulf]

"Drop the call of duty controller and realize nukes don’t change anything when your opponent calls your bluff"

speaking of games and gaming consoles in an attempt to explain a point instead of using proper reasoning and outlining precise scenarios is intellectually a primitive thing to do, thus ur representation in the opposite spectrum of madness as brother salar. @Immortals

guys avoid personal attacks please

 

[Immortals]

instead of using proper reasoning and outlining precise scenarios is intellectually a primitive thing to do, thus ur representation in the opposite spectrum of madness as brother salar. @Immortals

Ironic considering you couldn’t defend your pro-nuke position, so you resorted to this childish remark:

Congratulations , you now represent the opposite spectrum of madness as salar haq. Your points make no sense at all .

So you want to act improper then I will respond to you in same way. It’s quite simple. Respect is a two way street.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Again you have told me what has Russia gotten from having nukes? Even Turkey has armed Ukraine and it’s TB2 drones led to countless Russian deaths.

Russia can invade a European country and the West will not even give them weapons to reach into Russia

No country with nuclear weapons was invaded

As Supreme Leader said, “nukes are an excuse. Solve one problem they will raise another”. And he is right, we have seen US say Iran needs to negotiate on its missile program.

Israel obviously would rather Iran not have nuclear weapons, but it’s not the end of world if Iran does get it. I mean Iran is already a latent power and enriching at near weapons grade levels with near weapons grade stockpile of uranium ready. If nukes were seriously that much of a threat, you think Israel and US would have allowed Iran to slowly walk this path? Come on now

Israel destroyed Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs at early stages. It's not a fig leaf

I didn’t say Israel can start a war with nothing. I said Israel isn’t afraid of a war with Iran and that is true. And in a limited skirmish we have seen in this shadow war Iran has taken more hits than Israel. So a open skirmish would largely be the same.

Yes, if it’s gloves off open warfare then of course Iran can fire 5,000 missiles at Israel and cause immense damage. But both parties wouldn’t want to get to that point.

If Israel is not afraid of war with Iran (which I do not agree with at all) then that's great for Iran

No, no it does not. IRGC is a faction, but it does not hold the power in Iran. I don’t know where you read this.

IRGC is by far the dominant force in Iran purely by virtue of the fact it controls 30%+ of the entire economy and has the strongest military apparatus and direct line to Khamenei

Yes. That is why i said it makes sense for Iran to go for escalation.

Iran is one or two Amini-type social unrest from having a drastic government change (internally of course). The factions are at odds on how to govern till to 2050.

When Khameani passes away who knows what happens after. The government that takes control could be substantially different or less receptive towards external expansion.

So for Iran, post Khameani era is a major question mark. So waiting for the “perfect time” may never arrive.

So to be clear your solution is for Iran to go for all out war with Israel because Iran has to escalate and a tit for tat skirmish does more harm to Iran than Israel?

 

[jauk]

Israel must understand that Iran is willing to take great risks and go to war if Israel crosses its red lines

Currently they do not fear this so they act with impunity

If they knew taking out Zahedi and his deputies would lead to war with Iran, would they be less likely to do it? Obviously yes

alternatively, and at this point this is the approach I favour, progress the nuclear program immediately.

I believe Zionia will run to the US and exert political pressure within US circles when attacked. It’s not that simple. It’s one reason the US doesn’t want whet involved.

All in all, there are various plausible and explicable scenarios to retaliate or not. The IRI will come up with a prudent response which we may like or not like.

Let’s not forget the dire strategic situation Zionia is currently in. Those who don’t see this obvious fact are losing the trees for the forest. Are tacticians at best.

 

[Immortals]

No country with nuclear weapons was invaded

Which is all nuclear weapons are good for. You can have your soil bombed and your military assets attacked, that doesn’t warrant a nuclear exchange.

Israel destroyed Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs at early stages. It's not a fig leaf

Both were trying to go stealth plutonium route -like all other stealth nuclear weapons power. Destroy the plant = kill the capability.

Iran went the uranium route with the entire nuclear fuel cycle (from mining to yellowcake processing to centrifuge building to enrichment) all in house. Once Iran mastered the fuel cycle (2003) it became difficult to stop the program.

There was not singularity to bomb that would halt the program for 10+ years like the Syrian and Iraqi reactor programs.

So again every country has a preference to see its rival not get nukes.

The whole reason Iran even had a nuclear [weapons] program was they believed that Saddam would have a nuclear weapon by 1998. And obviously Saddam showed he isn’t afraid to use WMDs, so for Iran it was an existential crisis.

Once Saddam was eliminated (2003) the program went dormant and Iran was actually quite willing to trade away most of the program if West offered normalization, but the West hardened its position on no enrichment (even the Iranian proposed face saving token of enrichment of 300 IR-1’s was rejected).

Very strategic mistake by Bush administration who was on a ego trip from the Middle East wars. I don’t think people truly realize how big of a mistake that was. Iran was in a real position to trade away vast capabilities in order to be accepted by the West. At the time Iran’s military was a relic no AD, no real Airforce, no navy, no LACM, it’s drones were from 1980s, it had a super inaccurate missile named Shahab-3 that had CEP of 1-2KM. And Iran truly felt threatened by a land invasion.

Instead the West humiliated Iran by naming it an Axis of Evil and only built a massive headache for the world 20 years later.

IRGC is by far the dominant force in Iran purely by virtue of the fact it controls 30%+ of the entire economy and has the strongest military apparatus and direct line to Khamenei

Actually closer to 40% and it’s the IRGC conglomerates, not IRGC military branch. They still answer to the Republic. Until it becomes like Pakistan or any other country with a military junta ruling body. Iran is not there yet, could happen after Supreme Leader passes away.

So to be clear your solution is for Iran to go for all out war with Israel because Iran has to escalate and a tit for tat skirmish does more harm to Iran than Israel?

There is no perfect “solution”. If you want deterrence you have to match you opponent. So either strike the F-35’s that killed your officers or do a military decapitation strike on a group of IDF high level officers using whatever wonder weapon/black ops you were saving for a rainy day.

If your idea of deterrence is to strike a few cargo ships, throw some drones at a random base and call it a day then don’t expect strikes to stop. Solemani already tried that, it failed.

The idea is you need to ACCEPT the possibility of war. Only when you are in a open skirmish and your enemy can sense you are not scared of going into war —will deterrence be achieved. Israel knows Iran is scared to go into war. It can sense it.

Imagine a street fight, if you know your opponent will not escalate beyond some words and pushing and shoving, what will you do? You will feel emboldened and think you can win the fight.

But if suddenly he starts to fight back, initially you will be surpised at where this prowess came from, so your goal is to scare him back to his original position of being a coward. So Maybe you draw out a knife. Now you expect him to either de-escalate or be afraid and give up. But if instead he pulls out knife as well or even worse a gun, you suddenly realize that death is possibility.

And now the real high stakes game theory begins —usually at these points is when ceasefires or diplomatic breakthrus happen or yes all out war. But recent history (post WW2) has seen mostly descalation.


So again, the issue is. Israel knows outside of bombing Iran’s nuclear program or killing the Supreme Leader of Iran. Iran won’t go to war or do anything that can cause it immense pain. It will avoid it. So if you knew that about your opponent, why wouldn’t you being doing EXACTLY what Israel is doing?

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

Which is all nuclear weapons are good for. You can have your soil bombed and your military assets attacked, that doesn’t warrant a nuclear exchange.



Both were trying to go stealth plutonium route -like all other stealth nuclear weapons power. Destroy the plant = kill the capability.

Iran went the uranium route with the entire nuclear fuel cycle (from mining to yellowcake processing to centrifuge building to enrichment) all in house. Once Iran mastered the fuel cycle (2003) it became difficult to stop the program.

There was not singularity to bomb that would halt the program for 10+ years like the Syrian and Iraqi reactor programs.

So again every country has a preference to see its rival not get nukes.

The whole reason Iran even had a nuclear [weapons] program was they believed that Saddam would have a nuclear weapon by 1998. And obviously Saddam showed he isn’t afraid to use WMDs, so for Iran it was an existential crisis.

Once Saddam was eliminated (2003) the program went dormant and Iran was actually quite willing to trade away most of the program if West offered normalization, but the West hardened its position on no enrichment (even the Iranian proposed face saving token of enrichment of 300 IR-1’s was rejected).

Very strategic mistake by Bush administration who was on a ego trip from the Middle East wars. I don’t think people truly realize how big of a mistake that was. Iran was in a real position to trade away vast capabilities in order to be accepted by the West. At the time Iran’s military was a relic no AD, no real Airforce, no navy, no LACM, it’s drones were from 1980s, it had a super inaccurate missile named Shahab-3 that had CEP of 1-2KM. And Iran truly felt threatened by a land invasion.

Instead the West humiliated Iran by naming it an Axis of Evil and only built a massive headache for the world 20 years later.



Actually closer to 40% and it’s the IRGC conglomerates, not IRGC military branch. They still answer to the Republic. Until it becomes like Pakistan or any other country with a military junta ruling body. Iran is not there yet, could happen after Supreme Leader passes away.



There is no perfect “solution”. If you want deterrence you have to match you opponent. So either strike the F-35’s that killed your officers or do a military decapitation strike on a group of IDF high level officers using whatever wonder weapon/black ops you were saving for a rainy day.

If your idea of deterrence is to strike a few cargo ships, throw some drones at a random base and call it a day then don’t expect strikes to stop. Solemani already tried that, it failed.

The idea is you need to ACCEPT the possibility of war. Only when you are in a open skirmish and your enemy can sense you are not scared of going into war —will deterrence be achieved. Israel knows Iran is scared to go into war. It can sense it.

Imagine a street fight, if you know your opponent will not escalate beyond some words and pushing and shoving, what will you do? You will feel emboldened and think you can win the fight.

But if suddenly he starts to fight back, initially you will be surpised at where this prowess came from, so your goal is to scare him back to his original position of being a coward. So Maybe you draw out a knife. Now you expect him to either de-escalate or be afraid and give up. But if instead he pulls out knife as well or even worse a gun, you suddenly realize that death is possibility.

And now the real high stakes game theory begins —usually at these points is when ceasefires or diplomatic breakthrus happen or yes all out war. But recent history (post WW2) has seen mostly descalation.


So again, the issue is. Israel knows outside of bombing Iran’s nuclear program or killing the Supreme Leader of Iran. Iran won’t go to war or do anything that can cause it immense pain. It will avoid it. So if you knew that about your opponent, why wouldn’t you being doing EXACTLY what Israel is doing?

Can you even speak read or write Farsi !?

Stop taking like you know everything between Iranians

You have some Zionist, American sources without understanding Iran’s national language!