US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Ali_Baba]

We’ve now reached the phase where Iranian sycophants are wishcasting a recession on the US because they no longer have any credible argument to make in favor of the regime. Every last card is being shredded

So - now that the war is "won" as per your statements, when we will we see Trump on an aircraft carrier with "Mission Accomplished" sign?

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/iran-war-us-allies-military-influence-01052631

It’s almost like fighting a war requires thousands of munitions and surging forces. Yeah that creates near term risk, but those stockpiles will be reconstituted with contracts already worth over $100B for PAC-3, THAAD, and Tomahawk.

Otherwise these are just countries whining they aren’t front of the line to be defended.

 

[Ali_Baba]

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/iran-war-us-allies-military-influence-01052631

It’s almost like fighting a war requires thousands of munitions and surging forces. Yeah that creates near term risk, but those stockpiles will be reconstituted with contracts already worth over $100B for PAC-3, THAAD, and Tomahawk.

Otherwise these are just countries whining they aren’t front of the line to be defended.

So - now that the war is "won" as per your statements, when we will we see Trump on an aircraft carrier with "Mission Accomplished" sign?

 

[F-22Raptor]

More sanctions

 

[F-22Raptor]

So - now that the war is "won" as per your statements, when we will we see Trump on an aircraft carrier with "Mission Accomplished" sign?

Core Military objectives were met, and while we don’t have the HEU in hand, it’s been buried and Iran can’t access it. Thats an acceptable alternative.

Core objective of the last few months is preventing Iran from conducting terror attacks on maritime shipping and holding the global economy hostage. 2/3rds of oil flow have been restored, Iranian attacks are now minimal

As for the regime, it will take time for them to be overthrown. Trump underestimated the factions vying for power. He thought the Venezuela model would be sufficient, but reformist faction doesn’t control the military. Hence, the economic strangulation strategy today. Vast majority of military targets have already been hit, 80%+. There’s just not much more we can do militarily outside a full ground invasion.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Core Military objectives were met, and while we don’t have the HEU in hand, it’s been buried and Iran can’t access it. Thats an acceptable alternative.

You or anyone else don't know if the HEU was there or not, it speculation based on hopium.

Core objective of the last few months is preventing Iran from conducting terror attacks on maritime shipping and holding the global economy hostage. 2/3rds of oil flow have been restored, Iranian attacks are now minimal

It takes effectively 3 aircraft carriers, and a whole suite of USAF assets for that, which at most is giving you 50% of pre-war oil movements if the USA is indeed not lying.

What happens when the USA has to eventually has to draw down those forces ? How long can you keep those forces there? Isn't the default now that the Straits are closed unless the USA can maintain its large presence there to force it open?

Your stuck there, right ....

As for the regime, it will take time for them to be overthrown. Trump underestimated the factions vying for power. He thought the Venezuela model would be sufficient, but reformist faction doesn’t control the military.

Trump is an idiot. He cannot think. He takes orders from Benjamin Netanyahu...

Hence, the economic strangulation strategy today. Vast majority of military targets have already been hit, 80%+. There’s just not much more we can do militarily outside a full ground invasion.

It comes down if the USA can stop the emptying out of the strategic oil reserves before the Iranian economy goes pop. On the current rate of oil transfers, the answer is that USA cannot stop its depletion of oil reserves. And, once China is forced to go back to the markets to start buying oil to refill its own strategic oil reserves that it is eating into, what happens then ?? Right now, it is a race to see who will blink first..

 

[bafxet]

More sanctions

Exchange rate before war:
USD 1 = Irani Riyal 60,000

Exchange rate after the war (yesterday):
USD 1 = Irani Riyal 2 millions

Winning in the battlefield doesn't necessarily mean that you have won the war. There is an economic cost that always comes with it, and it is huge.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You or anyone else don't know if the HEU was there or not, it speculation based on hopium.



It takes effectively 3 aircraft carriers, and a whole suite of USAF assets for that, which at most is giving you 50% of pre-war oil movements if the USA is indeed not lying.

What happens when the USA has to eventually has to draw down those forces ? How long can you keep those forces there? Isn't the default now that the Straits are closed unless the USA can maintain its large presence there to force it open?

Your stuck there, right ....



Trump is an idiot. He cannot think. He takes orders from Benjamin Netanyahu...



It comes down if the USA can stop the emptying out of the strategic oil reserves before the Iranian economy goes pop. On the current rate of oil transfers, the answer is that USA cannot stop its depletion of oil reserves. And, once China is forced to go back to the markets to start buying oil to refill its own strategic oil reserves that it is eating into, what happens then ?? Right now, it is a race to see who will blink first..

US intelligence assesses the HEU is buried at the Midnight Hammer sites. Not hopium at all

The US can hold the naval blockade as long it wants. The Washington group will be relieved by the Roosevelt group in the coming weeks. Washington group will likely head back to the Pacific.

The US is aiming for 70%+ prewar oil flow by the end of September. If you’re counting on US oil reserves to dry up or the USN being unable to enforce a naval blockade you’ll be waiting a long time.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

We’ve now reached the phase where Iranian sycophants are wishcasting a recession on the US because they no longer have any credible argument to make in favor of the regime. Every last card is being shredded

I'll know ion a few weeks what the forecast is for peak season. That will tell me a lot.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

US intelligence assesses the HEU is buried at the Midnight Hammer sites. Not hopium at all

The US can hold the naval blockade as long it wants. The Washington group will be relieved by the Roosevelt group in the coming weeks. Washington group will likely head back to the Pacific.

The US is aiming for 70%+ prewar oil flow by the end of September. If you’re counting on US oil reserves to dry up or the USN being unable to enforce a naval blockade you’ll be waiting a long time.

It's not a matter of reserves drying up. It's capacity to pump and produce. Especially at the refinery level.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

So - now that the war is "won" as per your statements, when we will we see Trump on an aircraft carrier with "Mission Accomplished" sign?

Good thing I keep up with the the thread. The argument has slowly shifted from the US controls the Strait to the US mostly controls the Strait.

 

[Shags101]

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/iran-war-us-allies-military-influence-01052631

It’s almost like fighting a war requires thousands of munitions and surging forces. Yeah that creates near term risk, but those stockpiles will be reconstituted with contracts already worth over $100B for PAC-3, THAAD, and Tomahawk.

Otherwise these are just countries whining they aren’t front of the line to be defended.

7 years for interceptors if they’re lucky no more fighting erupts that’s their own report from that 50 billion dollar weapons deal they were talking about to resupply interceptors to multiple countries again you leave out gaps in your posts and sorry Ukraine stop the whining, Arab countries too, American troops as well and Israel your fine your always taken care of first over everyone

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

7 years for interceptors if they’re lucky no more fighting erupts that’s their own report from that 50 billion dollar weapons deal they were talking about to resupply interceptors to multiple countries again you leave out gaps in your posts and sorry Ukraine stop the whining, Arab countries too, American troops as well and Israel your fine your always taken care of first over everyone

My advice is to let it go. Having signed contracts are great. That means work for the manufacturers for years.

What's lacking is the capacity. I had a long discussion with a friend of mine a few weeks ago who works for one of the companies. He confirmed some of my estimates regarding replenishment.

 

[Shags101]

My advice is to let it go. Having signed contracts are great. That means work for the manufacturers for years.

What's lacking is the capacity. I had a long discussion with a friend of mine a few weeks ago who works for one of the companies. He confirmed some of my estimates regarding replenishment.

True that’s on either side of the fence of this issue

 

[Persian Gulf]

"help is on the way!" - Donald Trump