Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Ali_Baba said:
The key thing is, can Iran hit and damage an A/C and actually take an A/C off the strategic chessboard. Chinese would love that to happen, as it reduces the USA freedom of movement/action/control.
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Time to test that is coming... perhaps October. Either Iran will wait for a noose it's size is created or dish it out. They enjoy an advantage in creating a certain distance and significant ISR... but missed zionist back up strips in Iraq... were late in picking up build-up in Jordan...
They have chosen to be underwhelming on every field... which doesn't bode well when talking deterrence... in fact, US/zion will never provide them with the same courtesy. If it is available they'll take it... and wait for repercussions later or just smooth it over. Time will pass and everyone will forget.

Here's the thing... the SPR is still draining and it'd be pushing bottom by mid to late October... unless more oil or less demand... regardless... it will be the time when orange himself will be waiting for a reason... to create distraction, direct attention... he managed to kill epstein files demand by running America in a quagmire in the mideast... a desperate man can do anything!
That will also be the time when Iranians who're actively enduring a blockade, an act of war itself, will find it cumbersome enough to start going after the ships in Indian Ocean region and beyond... the last act of the empire before it departs for good. Of course, orange will try to paint it his way... and the gullible will eat it right up. The universal disadvantage of running a system of representation as a popularity contest and narrative control. Steer the sheeple of a cliff!

And yes... if we're to go by anything Houthis have demonstrated, Iranians are more than capable, though hesitant to an extent that they may want Houthis to have the first go... so keep an eye out for that as well.
 
Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ said:
Time to test that is coming... perhaps October. Either Iran will wait for a noose it's size is created or dish it out. They enjoy an advantage in creating a certain distance and significant ISR... but missed zionist back up strips in Iraq... were late in picking up build-up in Jordan...
They have chosen to be underwhelming on every field... which doesn't bode well when talking deterrence... in fact, US/zion will never provide them with the same courtesy. If it is available they'll take it... and wait for repercussions later or just smooth it over. Time will pass and everyone will forget.

Here's the thing... the SPR is still draining and it'd be pushing bottom by mid to late October... unless more oil or less demand... regardless... it will be the time when orange himself will be waiting for a reason... to create distraction, direct attention... he managed to kill epstein files demand by running America in a quagmire in the mideast... a desperate man can do anything!
That will also be the time when Iranians who're actively enduring a blockade, an act of war itself, will find it cumbersome enough to start going after the ships in Indian Ocean region and beyond... the last act of the empire before it departs for good. Of course, orange will try to paint it his way... and the gullible will eat it right up. The universal disadvantage of running a system of representation as a popularity contest and narrative control. Steer the sheeple of a cliff!

And yes... if we're to go by anything Houthis have demonstrated, Iranians are more than capable, though hesitant to an extent that they may want Houthis to have the first go... so keep an eye out for that as well.
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I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.
 
Ali_Baba said:
I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.
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It is not really game theory... as everyone is playing a different game...
Iran wants to keep a bridge open... Given their domestic politics. Orange is playing hunger games... giveb the scarcity reigning worldview he hails from... while zion seeks to rule the ashes.

The dithering by Iran created a false perception that is hard to let go and emboldens the aggressor for encore. It was this perception that many believed a decapitation strike would unfold the state in the first go... a perception egged on by Ahmad Chalabis of Iran, baby shah and the likes.
 
Ali_Baba said:
I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.
Click to expand...
Seems iranian leaders learned nothing and we are back to strategically waiting patiently again for trump to start a new bombing campaign when internal strife is worse and his replenished his weapons
 
RIP to the Iranian $. Toilet paper has more value than our currency.
 
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Immortals said:
China’s entire growth model was made possible because it became a servant of Western capitalism for decades. During that time trillions of dollars flowed from western economies to establish China’s industrial base and THEN naturally ToT flowed as well. This allowed the Chinese economy to explode.

From that economic renaissance that China underwent it allowed them to build their self sufficient economy. Its military for decades was Soviet/Russia supplied and relied on reverse engineering Soviet designs until reaching the point of self sufficiency. Iran has always struggled since the revolution to be able to buy big ticket weapon systems from Russia or China due to sanctions and threats. Forget military ToT since that has never been offered to Iran from either country. So iran’s military has struggled to modernize given these struggles and many of its leaps have happened from captured Israeli and U.S. military equipment.

Do you really think China that was in dire poverty in 1960 could get to where it is today based on just slogans and propaganda? Without Western $$$$$$? Of course not

Anyway historically Chinese investments in Iran (see oil and gas industry) have never materialized and often led to Chinese companies being kicked out of Iran for not properly starting the project due to sanctions. Some small scale projects have been completed by Chinese entrepreneurs but not anything that would be game changing.

Iran needs access to DEEP capital markets. Iran’s energy industries alone need $500B+ worth of investment to build, repair, renovate, etc. Let alone other sectors.



History says otherwise. Many large investment projects by China in Iran went no where due to threat of sanctions. Yes, flow of Chinese finished goods happens (for example Chinese cars) but in terms of the type of trade flow and capital markets and access to industrial technology that would build Iran into a regional economic power, the Chinese have been just as fruitless as the promises from Russian or European companies.
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Don't try to say like the western was giving China all the technologies for free.

The West did initially designate to keep China as their low tech sweatshop, and didn't expect China to outgrow them as a rivaling superpower.

China has been exploited by them for over 30 years at the expensive of environmental pollution.

If it wasn't China's cheap labor, do you think the western capitalists can enjoy their high profit dividends for over 30 years?

As for Soviet Union/Russia, everything that they did offer to China, they had offered a better version to India, but why India still doesn't manage to thrive like China?

Even your own President does admit that China's ascension was mainly the result of biding time with extreme strategic patience, and Iran also wants to buy more time like China.

If Iran wants to become successful like China, then you have to make the right strategic decision, and don't waste the opportunity that China has offered to you.
 
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ChineseTiger1986 said:
If Iran wants to become successful like China, then you have to make the right strategic decision, and don't waste the opportunity that China has offered to you.
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China hasn’t offered any “opportunity” to Iran. Stop talking nonsense. China just uses Iran as a political card with the West. China voted for UN Security Council sanctions just like Russia did.

Chinese companies were awarded lucrative oil and gas contracts and never fulfilled them and were kicked out of Iran for refusing to comply with contracts due to them being afraid of Western sanctions.

Go look at Chinese-Iranian trade ex cheap crude that the teapot refineries buy and you will see that it’s mostly in the form of cheap finished Chinese goods flooding the market. There is no ToT or major investment projects being offered or ongoing.

They signed a so called 20+ year “strategic agreement” with Iran and so far it was just a fancy political document. Dont get me wrong, Iran has made mistakes as well in relationship with China. But under Xi, he rather keep his investment lines open with UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar than risk any major investment with iran. China has firmly picked good economic relations with the Arabs and Turkey over anything substantial with Iran. That isn’t changing anytime soon.

There is no major opportunity offered by China that Iran is refusing. There hasn’t been in over a decade. Iranian officials may talk about pivoting to the East, but there is nothing to pivot to. China has shown no interest in a strategic relationship (economic + military) with Iran. You cannot force a country that doesn’t want to have strategic ties with you to do so.

So it’s quite puzzling users here keep referring to China as some obvious opportunity that Iran is refusing.
 
Immortals said:
China hasn’t offered any “opportunity” to Iran. Stop talking nonsense. China just uses Iran as a political card with the West. China voted for UN Security Council sanctions just like Russia did.

Chinese companies were awarded lucrative oil and gas contracts and never fulfilled them and were kicked out of Iran for refusing to comply with contracts due to them being afraid of Western sanctions.

Go look at Chinese-Iranian trade ex cheap crude that the teapot refineries buy and you will see that it’s mostly in the form of cheap finished Chinese goods flooding the market. There is no ToT or major investment projects being offered or ongoing.

They signed a so called 20+ year “strategic agreement” with Iran and so far it was just a fancy political document. Dont get me wrong, Iran has made mistakes as well in relationship with China. But under Xi, he rather keep his investment lines open with UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar than risk any major investment with iran. China has firmly picked good economic relations with the Arabs and Turkey over anything substantial with Iran. That isn’t changing anytime soon.

There is no major opportunity offered by China that Iran is refusing. There hasn’t been in over a decade. Iranian officials may talk about pivoting to the East, but there is nothing to pivot to. China has shown no interest in a strategic relationship (economic + military) with Iran. You cannot force a country that doesn’t want to have strategic ties with you to do so.

So it’s quite puzzling users here keep referring to China as some obvious opportunity that Iran is refusing.
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Well, Iran has kicked out China's investors including its automakers to adhere the deal offered by the Obama admin in 2015.

And since that time, Xi and his think tanks felt betrayed by Iran, therefore they became more vigilant to Iran.

If Iran can prove its worth this time, you will receive your compensation for making the right strategic decision.

For example, in the 1950, Mao didn't want to fight the US and have warned North Korea to not attack South Korea because the US would consequentially take the military action.

However, Soviet Union has incited North Korea to attack South Korea, and in result, North Korea had to ask China for rescue and effectively dragged China into the war.

Soviet Union had just barely recovered from the devastation of the WWII, and didn't want to fight the US by themselves, and requested China to fight on their behalf and to rescue North Korea.

China was reluctant to fight the US, but still made the right strategic decision, and created a stalemate with the US at the expensive of enormous casualty.

Soviet Union eventually decided to help China to establish the foundation for the initial industrialization, and they didn't offer us their best technology, but their obsolete WWII era technology, but it was still indispensable for the early stage of our industrialization.

This was how China has earned its first bucket of gold.

Iran is now also facing two choices, either to capitulate to Israel or to fight its way to a new strategic opportunity.
 


if any Iranian still thinks Trump gives a shit about them then they need a psychological evaluation
 
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