Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

The key thing is, can Iran hit and damage an A/C and actually take an A/C off the strategic chessboard. Chinese would love that to happen, as it reduces the USA freedom of movement/action/control.

Time to test that is coming... perhaps October. Either Iran will wait for a noose it's size is created or dish it out. They enjoy an advantage in creating a certain distance and significant ISR... but missed zionist back up strips in Iraq... were late in picking up build-up in Jordan...
They have chosen to be underwhelming on every field... which doesn't bode well when talking deterrence... in fact, US/zion will never provide them with the same courtesy. If it is available they'll take it... and wait for repercussions later or just smooth it over. Time will pass and everyone will forget.

Here's the thing... the SPR is still draining and it'd be pushing bottom by mid to late October... unless more oil or less demand... regardless... it will be the time when orange himself will be waiting for a reason... to create distraction, direct attention... he managed to kill epstein files demand by running America in a quagmire in the mideast... a desperate man can do anything!
That will also be the time when Iranians who're actively enduring a blockade, an act of war itself, will find it cumbersome enough to start going after the ships in Indian Ocean region and beyond... the last act of the empire before it departs for good. Of course, orange will try to paint it his way... and the gullible will eat it right up. The universal disadvantage of running a system of representation as a popularity contest and narrative control. Steer the sheeple of a cliff!

And yes... if we're to go by anything Houthis have demonstrated, Iranians are more than capable, though hesitant to an extent that they may want Houthis to have the first go... so keep an eye out for that as well.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Time to test that is coming... perhaps October. Either Iran will wait for a noose it's size is created or dish it out. They enjoy an advantage in creating a certain distance and significant ISR... but missed zionist back up strips in Iraq... were late in picking up build-up in Jordan...
They have chosen to be underwhelming on every field... which doesn't bode well when talking deterrence... in fact, US/zion will never provide them with the same courtesy. If it is available they'll take it... and wait for repercussions later or just smooth it over. Time will pass and everyone will forget.

Here's the thing... the SPR is still draining and it'd be pushing bottom by mid to late October... unless more oil or less demand... regardless... it will be the time when orange himself will be waiting for a reason... to create distraction, direct attention... he managed to kill epstein files demand by running America in a quagmire in the mideast... a desperate man can do anything!
That will also be the time when Iranians who're actively enduring a blockade, an act of war itself, will find it cumbersome enough to start going after the ships in Indian Ocean region and beyond... the last act of the empire before it departs for good. Of course, orange will try to paint it his way... and the gullible will eat it right up. The universal disadvantage of running a system of representation as a popularity contest and narrative control. Steer the sheeple of a cliff!

And yes... if we're to go by anything Houthis have demonstrated, Iranians are more than capable, though hesitant to an extent that they may want Houthis to have the first go... so keep an eye out for that as well.

I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.

It is not really game theory... as everyone is playing a different game...
Iran wants to keep a bridge open... Given their domestic politics. Orange is playing hunger games... giveb the scarcity reigning worldview he hails from... while zion seeks to rule the ashes.

The dithering by Iran created a false perception that is hard to let go and emboldens the aggressor for encore. It was this perception that many believed a decapitation strike would unfold the state in the first go... a perception egged on by Ahmad Chalabis of Iran, baby shah and the likes.

 

[lightning f57]

I do not understand the logic of their hesitation because it is creating more problems for Iran than it is solving to me at least. It is creating temptation to Trump that he can go back for another nibble or two against Iran as Iran will not cause the kind of military issues for him that he cannot politically defend, or lie outright about on the basis of what Iran has done so far(we are dealing with a dementia ridden fool here).

If Iran is hesitating in causing a real military defeat on the USA ( eg hitting an A/C ) on the basis that the USA may be forced to escalate to respond to that, then that strategy is not working for them, it is having the opposite effect of continuing the conflict for longer than it may need to.

The SPR is still decreasing, and Iran may well think it can manage the economic effect of that until the SPR levels start to cause real issues for the USA, and then decide what to do next. ie escalate prior to the elections, or negotiate on the basis that the US will be more vulnerable.

Some serious "game theory" going on right now between the USA/Israel and Iran.

Seems iranian leaders learned nothing and we are back to strategically waiting patiently again for trump to start a new bombing campaign when internal strife is worse and his replenished his weapons

 

[Watandar]

Trump considering plan to pull funding from Iraqi Kurds. Is this to encourage them to attack Iran as previously planned by Netanyahu/Trump or an important concession to Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran ? Me thinks it could be the latter.

https://archive.ph/6vXYn

 

[RzA]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[RzA]

RIP to the Iranian $. Toilet paper has more value than our currency.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China’s entire growth model was made possible because it became a servant of Western capitalism for decades. During that time trillions of dollars flowed from western economies to establish China’s industrial base and THEN naturally ToT flowed as well. This allowed the Chinese economy to explode.

From that economic renaissance that China underwent it allowed them to build their self sufficient economy. Its military for decades was Soviet/Russia supplied and relied on reverse engineering Soviet designs until reaching the point of self sufficiency. Iran has always struggled since the revolution to be able to buy big ticket weapon systems from Russia or China due to sanctions and threats. Forget military ToT since that has never been offered to Iran from either country. So iran’s military has struggled to modernize given these struggles and many of its leaps have happened from captured Israeli and U.S. military equipment.

Do you really think China that was in dire poverty in 1960 could get to where it is today based on just slogans and propaganda? Without Western $$$$$$? Of course not

Anyway historically Chinese investments in Iran (see oil and gas industry) have never materialized and often led to Chinese companies being kicked out of Iran for not properly starting the project due to sanctions. Some small scale projects have been completed by Chinese entrepreneurs but not anything that would be game changing.

Iran needs access to DEEP capital markets. Iran’s energy industries alone need $500B+ worth of investment to build, repair, renovate, etc. Let alone other sectors.



History says otherwise. Many large investment projects by China in Iran went no where due to threat of sanctions. Yes, flow of Chinese finished goods happens (for example Chinese cars) but in terms of the type of trade flow and capital markets and access to industrial technology that would build Iran into a regional economic power, the Chinese have been just as fruitless as the promises from Russian or European companies.

Don't try to say like the western was giving China all the technologies for free.

The West did initially designate to keep China as their low tech sweatshop, and didn't expect China to outgrow them as a rivaling superpower.

China has been exploited by them for over 30 years at the expensive of environmental pollution.

If it wasn't China's cheap labor, do you think the western capitalists can enjoy their high profit dividends for over 30 years?

As for Soviet Union/Russia, everything that they did offer to China, they had offered a better version to India, but why India still doesn't manage to thrive like China?

Even your own President does admit that China's ascension was mainly the result of biding time with extreme strategic patience, and Iran also wants to buy more time like China.

If Iran wants to become successful like China, then you have to make the right strategic decision, and don't waste the opportunity that China has offered to you.