US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

CETCOM(a great desinformation font) and several internet disinformation profiles are trying to deny yet another major US military defeat in this war: the six ships that Iran hit today (with images). These fake profiles deny the event and claim the photos are "old," but when you analyze these so-called old photos, they have nothing to do with those released by Iran. The video below, featuring a Brazilian geopolitics expert, explains how Iran hit six ships, including three oil tankers and three US vessels; images will be shown and analyzed (put in english in youtube to translate):


You actually want us to take this as factual? You can't be serious.
 
Misinformation as far as I'm concerned:

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We've been hearing this for awhile now. And now, the narrative has subtly changed: the summer driving season is ending therefore less demand.

Let's not overlook the obvious facts:

1. the only way to increase gasoline supply is to either increase refining capacity or to buy it from other sources. US refiners are already running at capacity at the expense of deferred maintenance. That is a huge risk.
2. squeezing more gasoline from a barrel of oil is not possible. Under the best refining processes and the grade of oil, the most gasoline that can be produced is 55%. The average actually runs between 40-43%. You can't squeeze more from the turnip.
3. Oil can be produced from coal but that is also expensive.

Unless there are new refineries in the US about to come on line, increased gasoline production is not accurate. In fact, thanks to regulations in California, refiners there are shutting down production. Chevron is in the lead with its Richmond facility. That will impact a LOT of industries including the construction industry. A substantial amount of asphalt comes from Richmond.
 
U.S. intelligence reports reveal that Iran has grown more confident in its military capabilities and more aware of the limits of American power, and that it is determined to prolong the conflict for several months with the aim of disrupting and exhausting the United States, according to The New York Times..

 
The UN Security Council will issue a resolution next week authorizing a formal strike against Iran, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency's report describing Iran as a state violating international law.

📍This is why Trump came out yesterday and declared:

"We will strike the Axe Mountain nuclear facility in the next few days."

Trump wants UN cover before destroying this particular facility...

📍Why?!

• Axe Mountain is the only facility that Iran has prevented the IAEA from entering and inspecting.

• It is the only facility that the late Qassem Soleimani prevented anyone from filming inside, making it the most mysterious facility in the world, one that worries America and terrifies Israel.

• It is the only facility in the world carved into a mountain of granite, the second hardest rock in the world after diamond, 100 meters underground, making it the most heavily fortified facility on Earth.

📍After a lengthy study of the site by military experts at the Pentagon, the US Air Force is preparing to use bunker-buster bombs the world has never seen before, bombs many times more powerful than the Doomsday Bomb.

📍No country in the world is capable of carrying out this mission except the United States, as it is the only one possessing these giant bombers and an exceptional president.

📍For all these reasons, Trump preferred to carry out this highly precise and dangerous strike with a UN resolution and international cover.

 
The UN Security Council will issue a resolution next week authorizing a formal strike against Iran, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency's report describing Iran as a state violating international law.

📍This is why Trump came out yesterday and declared:

"We will strike the Axe Mountain nuclear facility in the next few days."

Trump wants UN cover before destroying this particular facility...

📍Why?!

• Axe Mountain is the only facility that Iran has prevented the IAEA from entering and inspecting.

• It is the only facility that the late Qassem Soleimani prevented anyone from filming inside, making it the most mysterious facility in the world, one that worries America and terrifies Israel.

• It is the only facility in the world carved into a mountain of granite, the second hardest rock in the world after diamond, 100 meters underground, making it the most heavily fortified facility on Earth.

📍After a lengthy study of the site by military experts at the Pentagon, the US Air Force is preparing to use bunker-buster bombs the world has never seen before, bombs many times more powerful than the Doomsday Bomb.

📍No country in the world is capable of carrying out this mission except the United States, as it is the only one possessing these giant bombers and an exceptional president.

📍For all these reasons, Trump preferred to carry out this highly precise and dangerous strike with a UN resolution and international cover.



Absolute rubbish source and rubbish commentary….
 
So, since it is being discussed, I decided to test a hypothesis of mine with ChatGPT. The question asked:

"Under current refining capacity, how much could the US increase the output of gasoline over current production levels?"

A fair question, no? And, the output was not surprising. In its entirety:

As of the latest data available (week ending August 28, 2026), the U.S. is already running its refineries extremely hard, so the amount of additional gasoline that can be produced without adding refining capacity is fairly small.
  • U.S. refineries processed 17.5 million barrels/day (b/d) of crude at 98.0% utilization, against about 18.0 million b/d of operable capacity. U
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    U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
  • Gasoline production was about 9.8 million b/d that week. I
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  • Thus, simply taking crude runs from 17.5 to 18.0 million b/d gives only about 0.53 million b/d (530,000 b/d) of additional refinery throughput—roughly 3% more than current crude runs.
  • But not all of that extra throughput would become gasoline. Refineries also produce diesel, jet fuel, LPG, petrochemical feedstocks, etc., and their ability to shift the product slate toward gasoline is constrained by refinery configuration and blending capacity.

My estimate​


I would put the near-term maximum increase in U.S. gasoline output from existing refining capacity at roughly 200,000–400,000 b/d, with perhaps ~500,000 b/d as an aggressive theoretical upper bound if refiners simultaneously ran at 100% and maximized gasoline yield.

That's only about 2–5% above the current ~9.8 million b/d gasoline production rate.

The important distinction is that refining capacity isn't the same thing as gasoline capacity. The U.S. has about 2% of its crude-distillation capacity unused at the moment, but converting that last increment entirely into gasoline isn't technically feasible. Refiners can also change their product slate somewhat—for example, reducing distillate output to make more gasoline—but that merely shifts production rather than creating the equivalent amount of new total fuel.

And there is a timing issue: EIA expects refinery utilization to fall during September–October for seasonal maintenance, with crude inputs dropping below 16 million b/d in October. U
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U.S. Energy Information Administration So the 98% utilization figure is essentially a peak-season snapshot, not a sustainable year-round operating rate.

Bottom line: ~0.3 million b/d of extra gasoline is a reasonable central estimate, ~0.5 million b/d an optimistic ceiling. At 9.8 million b/d current production, that's not enough to transform the U.S. gasoline supply picture by itself.

If you're asking this in the context of how much gasoline production could rise if the administration forced/encouraged refiners to maximize output, I can also break down the potential into (1) higher refinery utilization, (2) shifting diesel/jet capacity toward gasoline, (3) restarting idled capacity, and (4) additional imports.
 

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