But your reasoning on anything in regard to the IAF's future acquisition is irrelevant, these are at best wet-dreams!
1. Tejas Mk.1/1a will surely come but it is now too late, it is simply not capable enough, as the IAF no longer needs a MiG-21 successor.
2. & 3. yes, sounds great, but the Rafale until 2040s! Come on ... yes, capable as it is but for the 2030s-2040 against a true adversary it's too late. And the same with the Tejas Mk.2
4. IF, IF, and this "IF" grows with each repetition. The point is, if India doesn't finally start truly investing, working, and changing its structures (like we in Germany should do), nothing will change, it will fizzle out, and even in 2049 fanboys will still be promising that AMCA "will be whatever, but surely the best 5th generation type ever!"
As such, on paper it is a nightmare against any Indian aspirations and even more so compared to the Indian self-image! Wake up already, otherwise nothing will change, except that India will continue to be taken lightly and financially exploited.
And as for Russia, that old man can barely manage his own unsteady gait. Do you really believe—especially since the IAF has rejected the Su-57 again—that you can achieve a) licensed production, b) technology transfer, and c) sufficient production numbers in a timely manner? NEVER!
I agree with the broader point that simply saying “AMCA will come” or “Tejas Mk.2 will come” is not enough. If these programmes keep getting delayed, then by the time they actually enter meaningful numbers, the threat environment will have moved much further ahead.
But I would not completely dismiss India’s future acquisitions as “wet dreams.” The real issue is execution, timelines, production capacity and decision-making—not the lack of capability on paper.
Tejas Mk.1/1A is already coming, and yes, with the changing world and technology, it can still be useful as a point-defence fighter. India needs such lightweight, single-engine aircraft because cost matters when you need to build numbers.
Rafale is highly capable, but buying a limited number of Rafales cannot by itself solve India’s fighter-strength problem. So for the future, the only real solution is local design, building and manufacturing of aircraft. If you are importing or even manufacturing an OEM-designed aircraft under licence, there will always be limitations.
Since 4th-generation fighters are not going anywhere before 2050, Tejas Mk.2 should remain relevant for the next two decades, along with upgraded Su-30MKI and Rafale, even if Tejas Mk.2 induction only really starts around 2030.
That is also the reason why, personally, I support buying 72+ Su-57s with customization—but only as a stop-gap measure.
What I would never want to hear after Rafale 110 and Su-57 aircraft are acquired is that India is again planning to buy another fighter from a foreign country. The only possible exception could be a 6th-generation fighter being developed internationally.
But after 2030, India should not be importing any new fighter aircraft. . India needs that breathing space and time to develop its own capabilities and this present decade must be enough to strength its aerospace industry and finally become capable of designing and manufacturing the fighters it needs itself after 2030....
India does not have any option left now.
Also, when people criticize India for not doing well enough, I think the expectation behind that criticism is actually that India should do better—like China—and start building and manufacturing its own aircraft and technologies.
Otherwise, many countries are either simply manufacturing OEM products under licence and remaining totally dependent on the original manufacturer, or directly importing their aircraft. People don't question their capabilities in the same way because they don't have the same expectations from them