US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

Urgent | Bloomberg on the US Secretary of Energy: Relying on reaching a consensual agreement with #Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is not a good bet..

@AJABreaking
 
Reuters, citing three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports, reports that available stocks at Yanbu are sufficient to sustain exports for only five to seven days following the shutdown of the East-West pipeline. If pumping is not resumed within days, the market could face a loss of up to four million barrels per day, equivalent to about 4% of global supply.

One source estimated that repairs could take five to six weeks, while another said a shorter repair timeframe was possible, with the potential for a partial resumption of pumping while work continues.

A fourth source indicated that Saudi Arabia has additional stocks at the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna and the Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, from which it can supply customers for several days.

The estimated storage capacity is approximately 35 million barrels at Yanbu, 18 million at Ain Sokhna, and 20 million at Sidi Kerir. All four sources confirm that the tanks are not full. Therefore, the total capacity of 73 million barrels cannot be considered as actual available Saudi stockpiles.

🔷 The East-West pipeline was transporting approximately four million barrels per day to Yanbu, after Saudi Arabia rerouted its exports away from the Strait of Hormuz over the past six months. Its shutdown cuts off the replenishment of the coastal storage facilities from which tankers are loaded. Shipments could thus continue for a short period after pumping stops, then decline once the storage is depleted, even if the loading facilities themselves remain operational.

🔷 The disruption follows a significant contraction that preceded the attack. Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its production reached 6.2 million barrels per day in August, compared to 10.9 million in February before the war—a decrease of approximately 4.7 million barrels per day, or 43%. Reuters reports that the International Energy Agency stated that Saudi supplies in August fell to their lowest level in more than three decades.

🔷 Globally, the International Energy Agency expects oil supplies to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day this year, a decrease of about 6%. Industry sources estimate current flows through the Strait of Hormuz at between six and nine million barrels per day, while the Middle East supplied the market with about 22 million before the war.


You don't have to be an expert or even an armchair expert to understand what this means to the global energy markets. On top of this, this is equally concerning:


Trump is giving Zelenskyy bad advice. Russian armor, trucks, and the majority of civilian autos all run on diesel. Deny them the fuel to supply their forces in Ukraine.

Also, is he suggesting the US may also again be buying Russian oil? I am finding nothing to confirm if the US is. All sources say no. Then again, who really knows?
 

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