when detected what AA missiles does iran posses to hit israelis planes ? any WVR capabilities?
The chance your hitting an F-35 or F-22 with an A2A missile is very low unless within dogfighting range. BVR missiles are notoriously unreliable in history of air to air warfare (plenty of data from military research papers) so they won’t suddenly become more reliable against LO and VLO objects.
The best chance you have to gaining targeting data and hitting F-35 would be via ground based air defense systems like S-300, Bavar 373 (Iranian S-400), and other medium range SAMs of which Iran has a significant number that I won’t list as a simple google search can list them.
Theoretically if F-35 went to Iran it would unlikely being in a “stealth” load out which is only internal weapon bays equipped with weapons. That’s because that would drastically limit payloads and your whole attack needs to inflect as much pain as possible before returning home. If IAF decides to load the pylons than RCS spikes on F-35 and makes it easier to spot the plane on advanced radar. A tricky scenario. But again I don’t think Israel has the tankers required for such a mission and would require US tankers to assist, whcih would be interpreted as a declaration of war by Iran.
So if you remove the F-35 and only conduct the raid with F-16 and F-15 and with conventional air to air refueling, then Israeli fighter jet losses will be substantial as Iran’s large array of early warning radars (some with 2000KM range) would likely detect any major squadron formation headed to iran. F-16 and F-15 simply lack the RCS to hide in the air. With possible 75+ aircraft heading to Iran, a massive footprint would seen by Iran prior to their arrival. Air defense crews would be ready and Ballistic force will already be doing counter strikes (on Israeli territory).
Thus I’m skeptical of the threat of Israeli air warfare. Logically it would be a desperate scenario with significant losses on Israeli and very limited upside. With no potential to permanently destroy Iranian nuclear program or set it back more than a year (maybe 2) then what is the point of this raid other than symbolic? These are questions generals and leaders should ask before heading into disastrous war.
If you proceed you likely guarantee a nuclear weapons equipped Iran within next 12-24 months. This type of strike that Israel proposes and we have heard since 2003, is completely different than the one they did On Syria Nuclear reactor and Iraqi nuclear reactor. Iran has a massive nuclear program spanning tens of sites that are spread all across the country and no one site makes or breaks the program.
Then there is issue of Fordow and it’s nuclear hardened sites which would survive any conventional assault or tatical nuke strike. So without US being directly involved with a mass saturation attack via Cruise missiles and the US Air Force attacking from the south (Indian ocean), I can’t see Israeli doing this solo. It would be the biggest air raid since WW2.
In conclusion, it Makes more sense for Israel to fire Jericho 2/3 BMs with conventional warheads and long range cruise missiles if Iran conducts retaliation strike on its territory. Save escalating to a bombing raid as a last all out war option.
