Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[Shadihassan28]

Iran: Marandi: Iran will respond to any strike on its facilities or officers anywhere, even if it is in Lebanon or Syria.

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I think from now on iran gets hit can’t back down so it actually might start get interesting no two week wait just a rapid response

 

[Abid123]

Ever since 7th October Israel looks like a bunch of amateurs. Any proper decent army will run over and overwhelm IDF.

Even yesterday before the attacks we had people saying "Saar, Izrail mini superpower can take on all muslim ummah combined". These brown sahibs are so deluded.

 

[hussain0216]

Going off topic but white european people have an instinctive hatred towards brown people and brown Muslims in particular. For some reason they feel insecure and threatened by us. Have never known why this is.

Err probably because Muslims at one time or another took Spain, Greece, Sicily, parts of Italy, SE Europe and fought up half the way to France and hungry

What they want is brown people like Hindus who are subservient by nature, and Muslims tend to be very resistant with a long history of domination of multiple cultures across the world

 

[That_Guy]

That's how all ships work these days, the ultimate owner of the ship was Israeli though and this was admitted by Israeli sources very quickly. The flag the ship chooses to fly is meaningless.

It was only partially owned.

I own shares in a few trucks in a business partner's trucking company, that doesn't mean I own the truck.

It's the same thing in this case.

 

[Hack-Hook]

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well try it

 

[the saint]

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[Shadihassan28]

Few points to consider:

• Iran's strikes were spread across Israel (not concentrated at any one area)
• Iran did not follow up with subsequent waves of BMs
• Iran effectively gave Israel 8+ hours of warning time by leading with UAV strikes (and firing BMs much later)

In this scenario, Iranian MRBMs had c. 5-10% success rate.

Now imagine a different scenario:

• Iran leads with MRBMs not drones, with only 6-8 minutes from launch to arrival in Israel
• Iran focuses all MRBM strikes against one part of Israel (e.g. south Israel / Negev, which is less well defended than central areas)
• Shortly after initial wave of c. 100 MRBMs, Iran quickly follows up with another wave of c. 100 MRBMs at the same area within 30 minutes, arriving before Israel can reload ABM systems (Arrow takes 1 hour to reload)

In this scenario, what can we infer about the likely success rate of Iranian MRBMs in the first wave? And in the second wave?

Other permutations:

• Israel retaliates, creating more intense escalation --> Iran continues to fire waves of c. 100 MRBMs into Israel
• How long until Israel's ABM shield is depleted and thus seriously degraded?
• Hezbollah decides to enter and uses its own SRBMs in sync with Iran, adding a new attack vector and helping to deplete Israeli ABM capability

Now I am not naive enough to think Israel cannot cause serious damage to Iran's infrastructure and economy, but I just want to explore some options for Iran to put yesterday's alleged success rate into context.

Dude iran gave the whole world two weeks to prepare they wanted to show they are capable of doing what they said if they got rid of a bunch of old stock the better

 

[Falcon29]

US is trying to restore deterrence for Israel now. By saying it will respond on behalf of Israel if Israel commits another terrorist attack against Israel and Iran retailates. US is misleading the world and clearly supporting full blown Jewish supremacy and expansionism:
..
..
Washington delegate: If Iran and its agents attack Washington or Tel Aviv, we will respond

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[Persian Gulf]

I guess we'll be finding out the answer to that soon, that's if Netanyahu decides to strike Iran and escalate further.

Iran has the largest stockpile of BMs in the world (that we know of), but how many of them are capable of reaching Israel from Iran? Would Iran move the shorter range BMs into Syria to decrease range? In this case, Israel would have the chance the bomb them before Iran can launch them.

Too many unanswered questions.

Iran has been mass producing MRBMs since at least 1998-2000 (Shahab-3) and earlier I shared evidence of production of newest generation MRBMs happening in huge numbers. every province in iran has an underground 'missile city' with huge numbers of MRBMs and likely assembly/production facilities too

regardless of exact numbers, the conclusion from my points is that there are easy ways for Iran to improve the 'success rate' of MRBMs fired into Israel if it really wishes to cause more damage (e.g. concentrate attacks in one area, lead with MRBMs giving only 8 minutes warning vs 8 hours by leading with UAVs, launch subsequent waves before ABM systems can reload).

 

[hussain0216]

I mentioned previously that Iranian missiles are unlikely to get anywhere near Israel because of its multi layered air defence and F35s, and some Iranians (or Persians as they like to call themselves) laughed. Who's laughing now? as I previously stated, the Israelis pretty much control the airspace of Lebanon and Syria, and there's very little the Iranians can do about it.

The Iranian attack was pretty much what we've seen in Ukraine, the shaheed drones are pretty much useless...toys with moped engines. Iranian cruise and ballistic missiles didn't really fair much better.

The Iranians overreached the escalation ladder. Instead of attacking Israel directly, they should have responded in kind to the Israeli attack in Syria on the Iranian consulate. They should have attacked the Israeli consulate in Armenia, and allege that it was a mossad hub to conduct operations in Iran. At least that way they would have actually killed some Israelis, instead of inflicting a minor scratch on a seven year old Israeli girl, the sum total of the damage from launching over 300 missiles.

You do understand that Israel only has a limited amount of air defence missiles, so these drone and missile waves will relatively quickly exhaust Israel and open it up to unimpeded attack

Even this limited attack required atleast four nations and for some reason those dopes from Jordan


Using drone swarms to exhaust an enemies air defence is the way forward

 

[AverageJoe]

US is trying to restore deterrence for Israel now. By saying it will respond on behalf of Israel if Israel commits another terrorist attack against Israel and Iran retailates. US is misleading the world and clearly supporting full blown Jewish supremacy and expansionism:
..
..
Washington delegate: If Iran and its agents attack Washington or Tel Aviv, we will respond

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US is trying to restore deterrence for Israel now. By saying it will respond on behalf of Israel if Israel commits another terrorist attack against Israel and Iran retailates. US is misleading the world and clearly supporting full blown Jewish supremacy and expansionism:
..
..
Washington delegate: If Iran and its agents attack Washington or Tel Aviv, we will respond

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Is this a reliable source for this comment?

 

[Immortals]

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[Persian Gulf]

US is trying to restore deterrence for Israel now. By saying it will respond on behalf of Israel if Israel commits another terrorist attack against Israel and Iran retailates. US is misleading the world and clearly supporting full blown Jewish supremacy and expansionism:
..
..
Washington delegate: If Iran and its agents attack Washington or Tel Aviv, we will respond

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How are they putting the capital city of the USA and a city in occupied Palestine in the same category?

 

[maverick]

in UN right now, USA has cleared Israel for an attack on Iran

 

[Starlord]

For many Westerners here on in general "retaliation" means killing innocent civilians to show their people and to fill the numbers, that's why they see Iran's attacks as failure. Americans retaliates in Iraq by killing civilians, Israel retaliate in Gaza by killing civilians hence they think the rest of the world thinks like them or like them when it comes to barbarity. PAF retaliates to IAF strikes on Feb 2019 by attacking 5-6 military installation without killing a single man/women, by their logic PAF strike was also a failure because in IOK business was as usual the next/same day. Western countries are killing civilians for so long for them any retaliatory strikes that doesn't kill multiple of civilians is a failure.