Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[Mehdipersian]

9 impacts are visually confirmed. not more. you are probably counting the same impacts shown from different angles in some of the videos you shared

so 9 / 100 = 9% success rate

and those 9 appear to have missed their targets by c. 200m

We have seen the accuracy of Iranian missiles before.

This error that you say may be for Qadr or Rizvan missile.
Emad and Khybershakan are highly accurate, especially Khybershakan.


The number of missiles that hit Israel is more than 15-20. Also, note that not all missiles were photographed (for example, missiles that hit the base in the Golan).

The fact that they still don't have the courage to publish the pictures of Israeli airbases shows that they got a big blow.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Rezai is not an active member of the IRGC and is not a reliable source in regards to this topic.

he is still a senior member of the establishment with close ties to the IRGC/leadership and should be careful with what he says

US claimed c. 110 missiles and c. 50% of them failed / failed to launch. so it doesn't make sense for him to say Iran launched 100 missiles if he knows <100 missiles actually launched

 

[Persian Gulf]

We have seen the accuracy of Iranian missiles before.

This error that you say may be for Qadr or Rizvan missile.
Emad and Khybershakan are highly accurate, especially Khybershakan.
View attachment 40988
View attachment 40989
The number of missiles that hit Israel is more than 15-20. Also, note that not all missiles were photographed (for example, missiles that hit the base in the Golan).

The fact that they still don't have the courage to publish the pictures of Israeli airbases shows that they got a big blow.

the first photo shows other impacts outside of the target circle ...

I have serious doubts about the accuracy of Iranian MRBMs

satellite imagery was released of Ramon and Nevatim and showed no serious other than one hit on a taxiway with debris that travelled 200m and damaged a c-130 plane. Golan hit is open question

 

[Mehdipersian]

the first photo shows other impacts outside of the target circle ...

I have serious doubts about the accuracy of Iranian MRBMs

satellite imagery was released of Ramon and Nevatim and showed no serious other than one hit on a taxiway with debris that travelled 200m and damaged a c-130 plane. Golan hit is open question

I do not believe their lies.
No good pictures of Israeli bases have been published yet. More than a month has passed.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I do not believe their lies.
No good pictures of Israeli bases have been published yet.

we have seen good photos...

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[vmro]

Accuracy of iranian ballistic missiles is confirmed with attacks on the us bases in Iraq, and everyone who has been there to see the hits can say the same...i know, I was there and I saw on my own... the thing is that us military was informed which objects and places are the targets... and the rest is history, history of building respect for irgc from the us military and intelligence services, based on the capabilities of irgc power projection....that created red telephone contacts, and prevents usa-iran direct conflicts....

 

[jauk]

Accuracy of iranian ballistic missiles is confirmed with attacks on the us bases in Iraq, and everyone who has been there to see the hits can say the same...i know, I was there and I saw on my own... the thing is that us military was informed which objects and places are the targets... and the rest is history, history of building respect for irgc from the us military and intelligence services, based on the capabilities of irgc power projection....that created red telephone contacts, and prevents usa-iran direct conflicts....

Hey folks these were old missiles...the conversation needs to be in that context.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Accuracy of iranian ballistic missiles is confirmed with attacks on the us bases in Iraq, and everyone who has been there to see the hits can say the same...i know, I was there and I saw on my own... the thing is that us military was informed which objects and places are the targets... and the rest is history, history of building respect for irgc from the us military and intelligence services, based on the capabilities of irgc power projection....that created red telephone contacts, and prevents usa-iran direct conflicts....

200-400km range vs 1200-1400km range is very different proposition

evidence shows Iran's short range ballistic missiles indeed have good level of accuracy (destructive power and reliability is open to debate but accuracy is not)

but evidence shows strikes beyond 500km have not been accurate, even from 2017 strike against ISIS in Syria using Zolfaqar missiles at 700km range and more recently in the strikes against Israel

Hey folks these were old missiles...the conversation needs to be in that context.

Kheibar Shekan is not old, it was shown only 2 years ago (with impressive claims about its accuracy and ability to penetrate ABM shields)

Emad is also less than 10 years old and officials claim it has <30m CEP

there are only two missiles known to be in production that are newer than Kheibar Shekan (K-4 and F-1).

lets assume the 9 missiles that did penetrate the ABM systems and impact in Israel were all Kheibar Shekans, and thus they showed good ability to penetrate Israel's ABM systems. that seems plausible to me. but even then the imagery indicates they likely missed their targets by 200m+. precision strike ballistic missile capability over such a distance is not easy.

it would be easier if Iran targeted urban areas but then we are back to 80s warfare with indiscriminate weapons of terror rather than conventional weapons capable of targeting and neutralising military targets.

 

[jauk]

200-400km range vs 1200-1400km range is very different proposition

evidence shows Iran's short range ballistic missiles indeed have good level of accuracy (destructive power and reliability is open to debate but accuracy is not)

but evidence shows strikes beyond 500km have not been accurate, even from 2017 strike against ISIS in Syria using Zolfaqar missiles at 700km range and more recently in the strikes against Israel


Kheibar Shekan is not old, it was shown only 2 years ago (with impressive claims about its accuracy and ability to penetrate ABM shields)

Emad is also less than 10 years old and officials claim it has <30m CEP

there are only two missiles known to be in production that are newer than Kheibar Shekan (K-4 and F-1).

lets assume the 9 missiles that did penetrate the ABM systems and impact in Israel were all Kheibar Shekans, and thus they showed good ability to penetrate Israel's ABM systems. that seems plausible to me. but even then the imagery indicates they likely missed their targets by 200m+. precision strike ballistic missile capability over such a distance is not easy.

it would be easier if Iran targeted urban areas but then we are back to 80s warfare with indiscriminate weapons of terror rather than conventional weapons capable of targeting and neutralising military targets.

Where are we getting the '200m+'?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Where are we getting the '200m+'?

satellite imagery

 

[jauk]

satellite imagery

I'm confused. So given the preponderance of misinformation that is spewed to us on a minute by minute basis why do you rely on the 'mishits' and do not consider the direct hits that are NOT available? Also, what about the distinct (and frankly ugly) possibility Iran intended the 'mishits'?

At the end, no 'western' based content can be relied on. That includes 'satellite imagery'.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I'm confused. So given the preponderance of misinformation that is spewed to us on a minute by minute basis why do you rely on the 'mishits' and do not consider the direct hits that are NOT available? Also, what about the distinct (and ugly) possibility and Iran intended the 'mishits'?

looking at the direct hits is what leads us to conclude that the missiles that impacted missed their mark by c. 200m

of course there is speculation built into this but I will not assume that iran intended to miss the targets

 

[jauk]

looking at the direct hits is what leads us to conclude that the missiles that impacted missed their mark by c. 200m

of course there is speculation built into this but I will not assume that iran intended to miss the targets

I personally won't assume anything. Plus where are the other hits?

 

[tsunset]

200-400km range vs 1200-1400km range is very different proposition

evidence shows Iran's short range ballistic missiles indeed have good level of accuracy (destructive power and reliability is open to debate but accuracy is not)

but evidence shows strikes beyond 500km have not been accurate, even from 2017 strike against ISIS in Syria using Zolfaqar missiles at 700km range and more recently in the strikes against Israel


Kheibar Shekan is not old, it was shown only 2 years ago (with impressive claims about its accuracy and ability to penetrate ABM shields)

Emad is also less than 10 years old and officials claim it has <30m CEP

there are only two missiles known to be in production that are newer than Kheibar Shekan (K-4 and F-1).

lets assume the 9 missiles that did penetrate the ABM systems and impact in Israel were all Kheibar Shekans, and thus they showed good ability to penetrate Israel's ABM systems. that seems plausible to me. but even then the imagery indicates they likely missed their targets by 200m+. precision strike ballistic missile capability over such a distance is not easy.

it would be easier if Iran targeted urban areas but then we are back to 80s warfare with indiscriminate weapons of terror rather than conventional weapons capable of targeting and neutralising military targets.

it would be easier if Iran targeted urban areas but then we are back to 80s warfare with indiscriminate weapons of terror rather than conventional weapons capable of targeting and neutralising military targets.

This is the only response if Israel wants to do a dirty war and thinks they can do what they do to Gaza with Iran, conventionally, no one would care of CEP and only penetration and massive destruction of civilians areas and public bunkers in this scenario, just kill the maximum settlers as possible and destroy everything into oblivion, ports, airports, public bunkers, hospitals etc

It certainly sounds very dirty to target hospitals, but if they do target civilian areas, all of their civilian infrastructure needs to be cleansed with the biggest warheads available

Iran would get back into 1980 by doing this, but not Israel, Israel is doing it since its creation to today

 

[Persian Gulf]

I personally won't assume anything. Plus where are the other hits?

9 visually confirmed hits, 5 in Nevatim and 4 in Ramon

in Nevatim the satellite imagery shows 3-4 impacts, only one did real damage (hit taxiway and debris damaged C-130 200m away). others probably landed outside the structures

in Ramon we don't see any hits, it's strange. perhaps the missiles impacted well outside the airbase

additional hits in Golan speculated but not proven