Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[Persian Gulf]

This is the only response if Israel wants to do a dirty war and thinks they can do what they do to Gaza with Iran, conventionally, no one would care of CEP and only penetration and massive destruction of civilians areas and public bunkers in this scenario, just kill the maximum settlers as possible and destroy everything into oblivion, ports, airports, public bunkers, hospitals etc

It certainly sounds very dirty to target hospitals, but if they do target civilian areas, all of their civilian infrastructure needs to be cleansed with the biggest warheads available

Iran would get back into 1980 by doing this, but not Israel, Israel is doing it since its creation to today

it's a very inefficient strategy and should be avoided if possible but in the worst case: 4-5 more waves of MRBM strikes will deplete Israeli ABM stocks then serious damage can be caused in population centres with subsequent waves of heavy MRBMs (even SCUD based)

in the first case mixing Fattah-2 to target ABM radars and launchers will be a huge bonus (and save a lot of saturation missiles if successful)

but the problem is how long those 4-5 waves will take and what damage will be absorbed in that time

maybe the war ends by the time those waves are over. these missiles take a long time to prepare and fuel

 

[tsunset]

it's a very inefficient strategy and should be avoided if possible but in the worst case: 4-5 more waves of MRBM strikes will deplete Israeli ABM stocks then serious damage can be caused in population centres with subsequent waves of heavy MRBMs (even SCUD based)

in the first case mixing Fattah-2 to target ABM radars and launchers will be a huge bonus (and save a lot of saturation missiles if successful)

but the problem is how long those 4-5 waves will take and what damage will be absorbed in that time

maybe the war ends by the time those waves are over. these missiles take a long time to prepare and fuel

It is 100% useless in terms of strategy but necessary as a last resort

If the death toll of settlers surpasses 1000, they will nuclear blackmail Iran and this is another scenario in which Iran should 100% prepare for, as the US and Israel blackmailed Japan, Korea, China then Iraq

Westerners can't take such civilian and personnel losses without resorting to WMDs threats (contrary to Russia, probably China and all the non-NATO world), same for soldiers, 1000 is probably the threshold for nuclear blackmail, they are very sensitive and sees their soldiers and people as 1 life of ours = 1000 lives of "browns"

 

[Persian Gulf]

It is 100% useless in terms of strategy but necessary as a last resort

If the death toll of settlers surpasses 1000, they will nuclear blackmail Iran and this is another scenario in which Iran should 100% prepare for, as the US and Israel blackmailed Japan, Korea, China then Iraq

Westerners can't take such civilian and personnel losses without resorting to WMDs threats (contrary to Russia, probably China and all the non-NATO world), same for soldiers, 1000 is probably the threshold for nuclear blackmail, they are very sensitive and sees their soldiers and people as 1 life of ours = 1000 lives of "browns"

as soon as first Iranian nuclear site is hit, Iran must immediately start building nuclear weapons

the problem is that if one site is hit, it will likely be part of a widespread attack against all facilities, so we have to hope that Fordow survives and then survives for another 2-3 weeks until Iran can put together its first nuclear warheads

ideally the enriched uranium from Fordow/Natanz will be spread across multiple undeclared highly protected underground sites. this isn't possible under the current NPT rules but after an Israeli strike this is the first thing Iran should do to protect its latent nuclear capability

mass production and improvements of Fattah class missiles must be pursued to the fullest. and improved air defences and satellite recon abilities to detect HVTs within Israel.

 

[tsunset]

as soon as first Iranian nuclear site is hit, Iran must immediately start building nuclear weapons

the problem is that if one site is hit, it will likely be part of a widespread attack against all facilities, so we have to hope that Fordow survives and then survives for another 2-3 weeks until Iran can put together its first nuclear warheads

ideally the enriched uranium from Fordow/Natanz will be spread across multiple undeclared highly protected underground sites. this isn't possible under the current NPT rules but after an Israeli strike this is the first thing Iran should do to protect its latent nuclear capability

mass production and improvements of Fattah class missiles must be pursued to the fullest. and improved air defences and satellite recon abilities to detect HVTs within Israel.

this isn't possible under the current NPT rules but after an Israeli strike this is the first thing Iran should do to protect its latent nuclear capability

Just kick immediately all foreigners from all facilities and rip off the NPT if this happens

I doubt about the "secret facilities", how to hide them from US satellites? What i always thought is that Iran didn't even made any secret facilities, but that in the classic facilities such as Fordow, there is an hidden underground simply accessible by having a key to some elevators and that is invisible from inspectors and protected with granite and concrete with at least 300m deep underground and a secret exit somewhere

Its a take i saw on twitter so 0 basis on this, but i really wonder where they are at because there is a very high probability they exist, but Iran faces the most advanced country with the best satellites available and no one will tell if they know something is done secretly or not

https://patarames.blogspot.com/2020/11/irans-path-to-second-strike-capability.html this one says straight away that even an earth penetrating B83 wouldn't be able to destroy some undergrounds (those in the mountains with granite cover before concrete)

 

[Mehdipersian]

we have seen good photos...

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These images don't show every part of Airbases.

Also there is always the possibility of jewish propaganda with fake images.
I do not believe a single word of the words of jewish terrorists and their supporters

 

[Persian Gulf]

Just kick immediately all foreigners from all facilities and rip off the NPT if this happens

I doubt about the "secret facilities", how to hide them from US satellites? What i always thought is that Iran didn't even made any secret facilities, but that in the classic facilities such as Fordow, there is an hidden underground simply accessible by having a key to some elevators and that is invisible from inspectors and protected with granite and concrete with at least 300m deep underground and a secret exit somewhere

Its a take i saw on twitter so 0 basis on this, but i really wonder where they are at because there is a very high probability they exist, but Iran faces the most advanced country with the best satellites available and no one will tell if they know something is done secretly or not

https://patarames.blogspot.com/2020/11/irans-path-to-second-strike-capability.html this one says straight away that even an earth penetrating B83 wouldn't be able to destroy some undergrounds (those in the mountains with granite cover before concrete)

satellites can't see underground

 

[jauk]

9 visually confirmed hits, 5 in Nevatim and 4 in Ramon

in Nevatim the satellite imagery shows 3-4 impacts, only one did real damage (hit taxiway and debris damaged C-130 200m away). others probably landed outside the structures

in Ramon we don't see any hits, it's strange. perhaps the missiles impacted well outside the airbase

additional hits in Golan speculated but not proven

Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence...

And I'm not nitpicking. Given the abject lies we face, the quote bears weight.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence...

And I'm not nitpicking. Given the abject lies we face, the quote bears weight.

we saw imagery of the main structures of each airbase and major/clear damage was not identified. this is the bottom line

 

[jauk]

we saw imagery of the main structures of each airbase and major/clear damage was not identified. this is the bottom line

We’re coming back around again. I will not rely on western sources on absolutely nothing.

Beyond the undeniable strategic win, lack of ‘persuasive’ impact imagery coupled with unreliable numbers, we cannot come to a reasonable conclusion on nature and location of impacts.

 

[Mehdipersian]

we saw imagery of the main structures of each airbase and major/clear damage was not identified. this is the bottom line

How did you get this from these poor quality photos from a long distance full of clouds?

If there was no destruction, why don't they have the courage to publish clear photos from the day of the attack?

Why did they delay more than a month to publish these strange photos?

Compare this with the images published from Ain al-Asad during the Iran Attack :

 

[Hack-Hook]

9 visually confirmed hits, 5 in Nevatim and 4 in Ramon

in Nevatim the satellite imagery shows 3-4 impacts, only one did real damage (hit taxiway and debris damaged C-130 200m away). others probably landed outside the structures

in Ramon we don't see any hits, it's strange. perhaps the missiles impacted well outside the airbase

additional hits in Golan speculated but not proven

I'm still wonder what actually happened in Golan

 

[Persian Gulf]

I'm still wonder what actually happened in Golan

IRGC still didn't confirm much about the operation but I guess not much damage was done in Golan or it would be leaked by now

 

[Immortals]

How did you get this from these poor quality photos from a long distance full of clouds?

If there was no destruction, why don't they have the courage to publish clear photos from the day of the attack?

Why did they delay more than a month to publish these strange photos?

Compare this with the images published from Ain al-Asad during the Iran Attack :
View attachment 41438

Al Assad used shorter range more accurate missiles. The shorter distance a missile has to travel the more accurate it’s gyroscope is because it ensures less vibration during the flight. But we have seen even with missile strikes against Kurdistan bases and HQ the variability of accuracy. And that is cost you pay when you try to make these missiles for less than <$1M a pop. Quality and Control drops.

For Israel attack Iran used old cheap missiles that Houthi’s have been firing for years. Ghadr and Qiam aren’t very deadly missiles against an opponent armed with enough Intel and missiles. Look at Ukraine in the beginning it did very well against BMs now it barely intercepts 20-30% and most of the front doesn’t have long range ADs to protect them (mostly critical areas and the capital).

 

[jauk]

Al Assad used shorter range more accurate missiles. The shorter distance a missile has to travel the more accurate it’s gyroscope is because it ensures less vibration during the flight. But we have seen even with missile strikes against Kurdistan bases and HQ the variability of accuracy. And that is cost you pay when you try to make these missiles for less than <$1M a pop. Quality and Control drops.

For Israel attack Iran used old cheap missiles that Houthi’s have been firing for years. Ghadr and Qiam aren’t very deadly missiles against an opponent armed with enough Intel and missiles. Look at Ukraine in the beginning it did very well against BMs now it barely intercepts 20-30% and most of the front doesn’t have long range ADs to protect them (mostly critical areas and the capital).

The latter half of your post has the most relevance. Your ‘cheap’ comment obviously doesn’t. The cheaper the better. You seem to keep forgetting the cost that’s incurred on the opponent and, more importantly, their incapacity to replenish.

Any conversation about Iranian missile systems without considering those is meaningless.

 

[Hack-Hook]

IRGC still didn't confirm much about the operation but I guess not much damage was done in Golan or it would be leaked by now

it seems everybody prefer to remain silent on that. israel is silent , iran is silent. sat photo of it is rare .