Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel

[Bengal71]

Khamenei is 85 already and the main obstacle to an Iranian nuclear weapon

top IRGC/Iranian army leadership are old generation all in their mid 60s (Bagheri, Salami, Hajizadeh, Fadavi, Mousavi, Heydari, Sahabifard, Jafari) waiting to be replaced by more dynamic, competent, and aggressive modern generation

I don't think they will target these guys

Ok, that's one way of looking at it.

The other way to look at it is, if these guys are taken out there will be an instant vaccuum of leadership and in the fog of that they can instigate a 'revolution' for someone else to take power. The very least that can happen is different parts of the military and political leaders will all vye for power and there will be chaos.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Ok, that's one way of looking at it.

The other way to look at it is, if these guys are taken out there will be an instant vaccuum of leadership and in the fog of that they can instigate a 'revolution' for someone else to take power. The very least that can happen is different parts of the military and political leaders will all vye for power and there will be chaos.

True there are many power factions in Iran. But Iran's pool of commanders and top officials is extremely deep, and they remain loyal to the revolution above all else. Such a cataclysmic event provides good opportunity to tighten domestic rules to prevent any opportunistic uprisings, which Iran is very competent at dealing with.

 

[ToddE]

True there are many power factions in Iran. But Iran's pool of commanders and top officials is extremely deep, and they remain loyal to the revolution above all else. Such a cataclysmic event provides good opportunity to tighten domestic rules to prevent any opportunistic uprisings, which Iran is very competent at dealing with.

What enemies of Iran do not understand is that if this current crop of old clergymen and commanders are replaced with younger blood, Iran will be 10 times more aggressive and stubborn than it is right now.

It is because the Iranian revolution has embedded into Iranian nationalism. It has been almost 4-5 decades. Where I grew up in west the place is full of secular Shahists who left Iran during or just after the revolution. When they see IRI giving shit to enemies of Iran they forget it's the same mullahs who they left Iran to escape, then it's just Iran. Alot of the younger generation of Iranians both inside and outside are ultra-nationalists and if I may dare, many are even ethno-nationalists and IRI should be given the credit for cementing this identity. I grew up calling these people dumb mullahs, akhoonds, stupid clergymen but they have proven themselves to be tough people who do not bend to the enemy. Iran now ranks 9th in the world in STEM, we ranked Ist in the Olympics if we go by medal per athlete, way above anyone in our region or Islamic world. We now supply weapons to Russia. 4 decades back we had to smuggle bolts for pylons of aircraft. Our country despite sanctions, western animosity is thriving so IRI has finally succeeded where Shahi stupidity failed. Shah could not mix up Iranian imperial identity with religious and Iranian nationalism. His "pocket-money" prince is repeating the same mistake by standing with enemies of Iran thinking it Iranians will rally behind him.

 

[Persian Gulf]

What enemies of Iran do not understand is that if this current crop of old clergymen and commanders are replaced with younger blood, Iran will be 10 times more aggressive and stubborn than it is right now.

It is because the Iranian revolution has embedded into Iranian nationalism. It has been almost 4-5 decades. Where I grew up in west the place is full of secular Shahists who left Iran during or just after the revolution. When they see IRI giving shit to enemies of Iran they forget it's the same mullahs who they left Iran to escape, then it's just Iran. Alot of the younger generation of Iranians both inside and outside are ultra-nationalists and if I may dare, many are even ethno-nationalists and IRI should be given the credit for cementing this identity. I grew up calling these people dumb mullahs, akhoonds, stupid clergymen but they have proven themselves to be tough people who do not bend to the enemy. Iran now ranks 9th in the world in STEM, we ranked Ist in the Olympics if we go by medal per athlete, way above anyone in our region or Islamic world. We now supply weapons to Russia. 4 decades back we had to smuggle bolts for pylons of aircraft. Our country despite sanctions, western animosity is thriving so IRI has finally succeeded where Shahi stupidity failed. Shah could not mix up Iranian imperial identity with religious and Iranian nationalism. His "pocket-money" prince is repeating the same mistake by standing with enemies of Iran thinking it Iranians will rally behind him.

do not agree with your description of the diaspora. most are patriots in some respects (Persian Gulf, territorial integrity) but they equally support harsh sanctions against Iranians and joining forces with Iran's enemies for regime change.

agree on the first point and I made that same point a few posts back. Just look at the difference between Hassan Khomeini (openly calling for Iran to develop nukes) and Ali Khamenei (blocking development of nukes, blocking development of ICBMs).

Hassan Khomeini would make a fantastic Leader, I really hope he gets it. Khamenei is 85...

 

[BHAN85]

easier for Israel to fly over Syria and Iraq. they have been bombing many radar sites in Syria recently

If I were Israel/USA my biggest dream would be drag KSA and whole GCC against Iran.

So they must be thinking some twisted plot to achieved.

They have already tried in the last decade.

Deception and lies are their main tools.

 

[mangekyo]

do not agree with your description of the diaspora. most are patriots in some respects (Persian Gulf, territorial integrity) but they equally support harsh sanctions against Iranians and joining forces with Iran's enemies for regime change.

agree on the first point and I made that same point a few posts back. Just look at the difference between Hassan Khomeini (openly calling for Iran to develop nukes) and Ali Khamenei (blocking development of nukes, blocking development of ICBMs).

Hassan Khomeini would make a fantastic Leader, I really hope he gets it. Khamenei is 85...

There’s a huge difference between exile Iranians and diaspora Iranians. Almost all Iranians wish to live in Iran. Exile Iranians can’t so they have to support regime change. Diaspora Iranians are mostly patriotic, but won't move to Iran because of economic hardship, too much social control and a bunch of other things.

One of the best things IRI could do is to relax social control, forgive the past, forgive the opposition and let all Iranians regardless of what they did in the past return to Iran. I am willing to bet that lots of even the most anti IRI people would change their mind and maybe even use their voice and position to support Iran instead of regime change.

 

[ToddE]

do not agree with your description of the diaspora. most are patriots in some respects (Persian Gulf, territorial integrity) but they equally support harsh sanctions against Iranians and joining forces with Iran's enemies for regime change.

What do you expect from people when news of Mullahs hanging 15 years old girl on Hijab, come out of Iran? People who have bled for Iran do not tolerate this, so our blood boils hearing this. If its propoganda by the enemy then Mullahs needs to have better counter-media.

When push comes to shove, nation gets united. Like I said I have myself called for the de-throning of stupid akhoonds but as an Iranian I know they will turn the region into a firepit if Iran's existence is threatened.

agree on the first point and I made that same point a few posts back. Just look at the difference between Hassan Khomeini (openly calling for Iran to develop nukes) and Ali Khamenei (blocking development of nukes, blocking development of ICBMs).

Hassan Khomeini would make a fantastic Leader, I really hope he gets it. Khamenei is 85...

The same thing will happen to all top brass posts of IRGC and Artesh if old men are retired or someone takes them out, younger Iranians are aggressive ultra-nationalists with a gem of a nation at their hands to build. Mullahs have laid a solid foundation for whoever will follow them.

I agree with Hassan Khomeini, man has charisma and connection to the younger generation, something Mojtaba Khamenei lacks.

 

[Mustang125]

Ah, so you're the ones who did that? Iran was a perfectly fine Sunni country for 800-900 years until you did what you did. What's done is done, so pease don't behead me.

Ah, again with the sectarian bullshit. Just like the perfectly fine Sunni Arab countries right now? No wonder the Jews have us by the balls because we are still stuck in thsi sunni Shia mindset.

 

[ToddE]

Ah, again with the sectarian bullshit. Just like the perfectly fine Sunni Arab countries right now? No wonder the Jews have us by the balls because we are still stuck in thsi sunni Shia mindset.

Relax, I think the guy was joking.

 

[Tamerlane]

Gallant "our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising - they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results."

I've heard this comment of Gallant many times about a surprise attack on Iran and people have been speculating what it could be. One idea I have is that it could be a biological weapon attack. Their spies could have given hundreds of senior leaders Agent A which lies dormant. Then when they're given Agent B the person dies.

There has been online especulation that the Covid vaccine was such an Agent A. Then when there's another pandemic they will administer Agent B that will kill large numbers of people.

Such a scenario would match Gallant's description: "our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising - they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results."

 

[BHAN85]

Good timing for the meeting, a message to Israel?

Saudi Crown Prince meets Iranian foreign minister in Riyadh

Saudi Crown Prince meets Iranian foreign minister in Riyadh

saudigazette.com.sa

 

[BHAN85]

I've heard this comment of Gallant many times about a surprise attack on Iran and people have been speculating what it could be. One idea I have is that it could be a biological weapon attack. Their spies could have given hundreds of senior leaders Agent A which lies dormant. Then when they're given Agent B the person dies.

There has been online especulation that the Covid vaccine was such an Agent A. Then when there's another pandemic they will administer Agent B that will kill large numbers of people.

Such a scenario would match Gallant's description: "our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising - they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results."

oil market prices suggests something stronger

 

[Persian Gulf]

There’s a huge difference between exile Iranians and diaspora Iranians. Almost all Iranians wish to live in Iran.

this is laughably not true

most of them are fully westernised and would not move back to iran even if there was a revolution that installed the shah

 

[tsunset]

I've heard this comment of Gallant many times about a surprise attack on Iran and people have been speculating what it could be. One idea I have is that it could be a biological weapon attack. Their spies could have given hundreds of senior leaders Agent A which lies dormant. Then when they're given Agent B the person dies.

There has been online especulation that the Covid vaccine was such an Agent A. Then when there's another pandemic they will administer Agent B that will kill large numbers of people.

Such a scenario would match Gallant's description: "our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising - they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results."

Or maybe this is just another classic hasbara threats? Stop believing in their bullcrap so easily, Gallant also said he was going to conduct a massive pre emptive strike that would destroy a big part of Iran inventory. Of course nothing happened and Iran bombed Israel successfully

 

[FuturePAF]

What enemies of Iran do not understand is that if this current crop of old clergymen and commanders are replaced with younger blood, Iran will be 10 times more aggressive and stubborn than it is right now.

It is because the Iranian revolution has embedded into Iranian nationalism. It has been almost 4-5 decades. Where I grew up in west the place is full of secular Shahists who left Iran during or just after the revolution. When they see IRI giving shit to enemies of Iran they forget it's the same mullahs who they left Iran to escape, then it's just Iran. Alot of the younger generation of Iranians both inside and outside are ultra-nationalists and if I may dare, many are even ethno-nationalists and IRI should be given the credit for cementing this identity. I grew up calling these people dumb mullahs, akhoonds, stupid clergymen but they have proven themselves to be tough people who do not bend to the enemy. Iran now ranks 9th in the world in STEM, we ranked Ist in the Olympics if we go by medal per athlete, way above anyone in our region or Islamic world. We now supply weapons to Russia. 4 decades back we had to smuggle bolts for pylons of aircraft. Our country despite sanctions, western animosity is thriving so IRI has finally succeeded where Shahi stupidity failed. Shah could not mix up Iranian imperial identity with religious and Iranian nationalism. His "pocket-money" prince is repeating the same mistake by standing with enemies of Iran thinking it Iranians will rally behind him.

Young officials maybe even more loyal to the revolution, but like the Soviet Union, their potentially undoing is economics.

A lot of Iran’s inflows of funds depends on their export of hydrocarbons. Considering their is high demand to their east, but with Pakistan unable to afford (or deal with the threat of US Pressure), if Iran funded and built a pipeline through Pakistan to India, and sell oil and/gas at below market prices, to Pakistan and India, they way it does for China, it could lock in two large markets.