Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel

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US believes Iran is extremely nervous as it awaits Israel’s response to missile attacks​


By Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler and Alex Marquardt, CNN

October 11, 2024

People walk on the streets of Tehran where Iranian flags and Hezbollah banners are seen, as the tensions between the two countries continue after Iran's missile attack on Israel in Tehran, Iran on October 09, 2024.'s missile attack on Israel in Tehran, Iran on October 09, 2024.



People walk on the streets of Tehran where Iranian flags and Hezbollah banners are seen, as the tensions between the two countries continue after Iran's missile attack on Israel in Tehran, Iran on October 09, 2024.

Fatemah Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty Images
CNN —

Iran’s government is extremely nervous and has been engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to gauge whether they can reduce the scale of Israel’s response to its missile attack earlier this month and – if that fails – help protect Tehran, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Iran’s anxiety stems from uncertainty about whether the US can convince Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and the fact that its most important proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks, the sources said.

The US has been consulting with Israel on how it plans to respond to Iran’s October 1 attack, and US officials have made clear they do not want Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, their first conversation in almost two months, telling him Israel’s retaliation should be “proportional.”

The US’ Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the US about a potential attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could create negative economic and environmental impacts for the entire region, an Arab diplomat told CNN.

The Biden administration is deeply worried that the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel struck what Iran said was its consulate building in Damascus, could spiral into a major regional war that pulls the US in, too.

A major part of the fears is that the US’ influence with Israel has appeared to be steadily waning over the last year. Similarly to its operations in Gaza, Israel has increasingly disregarded the US’ calls for more restraint in Lebanon, where Israel’s intense bombing campaign and ground offensive has killed over 1,400 people since late last month.

Israel also did not consult with the US before conducting a massive attack that exploded thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month, or before assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and upending a delicate ceasefire proposal that had been put forward by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier.

Israel’s security cabinet has not yet reached a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between the US and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not remain that way, a US official said.

“We can’t actually know whether they voted or not,” a senior administration official said of the Israeli cabinet’s discussions, expressing skepticism over the level of transparency about what Israel is sharing with the US. The official suggested they can’t “put too much stock in the machinations” of the Israeli government.

As of last week, Israel had not given any assurances that it would not target Iran’s nuclear facilities, CNN reported.

Israel has for decades been planning attacks on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and just two years ago simulated striking them in a military exercise. Israel is also suspected of carrying out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran’s nuclear facilities have come under siege from cyberattacks, likely from Israel—the most famous being the Stuxnet virus, which was able to penetrate Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

‘Our strike will be powerful’​

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran about his country’s response on Wednesday.

“Our strike will be powerful, precise, and above all – surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened,” Gallant said.

The Gulf states, broadly, are eager to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, the Arab diplomat said. While Iran has publicly warned that any parties seen as aiding Israel will be treated as aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran’s neighbors would explicitly come to Tehran’s defense in the event of an Israeli attack.

But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told both the US and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran, the Arab diplomat and another source familiar with the matter told CNN. Jordan also will protect its airspace from any unauthorized intrusion, regardless of the origin, a Jordanian official said.

The US does not believe that Iran wants to become entangled in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu “is the only one who wants a war and to set the region on fire to stay in power.”

But the US has still urged Tehran, through backchannels, to calibrate its response if Israel attacks, an official said.

While Qatar regularly speaks to the Iranians and relays back to the US what they say, the US official said that ultimately “we just do not know what [Iran] will do.” Key voices within Iran will have different ideas about if and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the scale and scope of the highly anticipated Israeli move, another US official said.

This official said that messaging from Iran has been consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran launched its barrage of missiles at Israel earlier this month and there has not been a significant change in messaging.

Iran has been particularly interested in getting help from Saudi Arabia in preventing an Israeli attack and using their influence with Washington to help find a solution to the crisis, the Arab diplomat told CNN.

Officials from each country have met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to “consult on regional developments” and to “try to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza,” he told local media.

The world is watching Israel’s every move as it contemplates how to respond. But at least until Saturday at sundown, Israel will be at a standstill to mark Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism. And though it’s not impossible Israel might launch action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not be operating and even the country’s main airport — the Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv — will be shut down.

CNN’s Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni and Katie Bo Lillis contributed reporting.

Oh no! One of the prime Zionist sources! Don't say its true!
 
Israeli gov sources told timesofisrael despite earlier claims "No decision has been made" what the retaliation will look like and there is "No real plan" only "talk and ideas".


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some israeli sources are already claiming "Its best to wait for trump to take office, then retaliate".


that the retaliation will be "minor" and symbolic is clear, but now the question is will it happen in the next 40 days or after the election ? ,

i still think there will be a symbolic sabotage attempt on a factory or another minor target in the next 2-3 weeks or later. They will try to smuggle in explosives via Iraqi/turkish border and try to blow up a Factory in Esfahan or Shiraz.
 
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Israeli gov sources told timesofisrael despite earlier claims "No decision has been made" what the retaliation will look like and there is "No real plan" only "talk and ideas".
that's pretty funny

when Iran delayed everyone was mocking Iran for not responding yet
 
Iran should hammer Israel as much as it can before US elections, using disproportional force and aiming for civilians

Israel is paralyzed and can't make a decision, and hopes that Trump is elected to try to invade Iran, this is the best moment to victimize and bully Israel

Iran should pre-emptively target civilian assets in Israel as well as leveling Knesset and official buildings, also smuggle man portable AD to try to shoot down presidential plane and weapon delivery cargo planes from Lebanon or Gaza
 
Iran should hammer Israel as much as it can before US elections, using disproportional force and aiming for civilians

Israel is paralyzed and can't make a decision, and hopes that Trump is elected to try to invade Iran, this is the best moment to victimize and bully Israel

Iran should pre-emptively target civilian assets in Israel as well as leveling Knesset and official buildings, also smuggle man portable AD to try to shoot down presidential plane and weapon delivery cargo planes from Lebanon or Gaza
Haram.
 
Another analysis of TP II. Conclusion: Iran has developed a very effective saturation and depletion strategy which is currently not stoppable. Iran has taken an incremental strategy with a sharp increase in usage and success in each strike.

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Since October 1 they have been convening everyday
LOL.

Israel is now at the tip end of the "abyss", it has an important choice to make.

It is probably true that any "foolish move" Israel makes now could result in it being Ukraine'd!
 
Why do Pakistani and Indian members on here always try to make the story about them? Literally no one cares about Pakistan or India in this geopolitical conflict.

Pakistani generals are on US payroll and have been for decades.

India is another US/Zionist stooge state.

There are several reasons. For years Iranians have had a similar mentality "America is attacking Iraq to get to Iran" "America is attacking Afghanistan to surround Iran". Conflict between a neighboring country and USA is always relevant to the neighboring countries. India has investments in Chahbahar port if that is destabilized there will be consequences for Afghanistan, and by extension, Pakistan.

Not everything is about you :)
 
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