I think they have assets in the IRGC that will take care of the missile cities without resorting to tactical nukes. They will likely use tactical nukes, but to take out command and control, and nuclear facilities. I think we're about to see an unimaginably spectacular decapitation strike where actual members of the IRGC and army, with ties to Mossad and opposition, will be taking out targets within the nezaam. This retaliation isn't meant to hit Iran or teach it a lesson, it's meant to remove the threat for good. They are aiming to destroy the Islamic Republic, and with everything Washington has done over the past year, it's clear to me that that's Washington's goal as well- with plausible deniability.
Iran should have pre-emptively struck already. Iran should have enforced its red lines. It should have retaliated meaningfully against the assassinations of allies. It hasn't, it's shown indecision, paralysis and weakness every time, with taciturn retaliations signalling to Tel Aviv that they can continue. They will, Jewish people are very vindictive and destructive against their enemies- this is evident going back to veterotestamentary texts. Iran missed too many opportunities to set limits and enforce its allies, and here we are. On the verge of the disintegration of the Islamic Republic. One can only hope the transition to what's next does not involve ethnic civil war or territorial concessions. Given the amount of attention and backing Pahlavi has gotten over the past couple of months, I am becoming certain that the goal isn't to balkanize Iran, but to keep Iran intact and shift it to the Western sphere of influence. Perhaps the islands would be given to the Arabs, and perhaps there will be pressure for an autonomous Kurdish region composed of the predominantly Sunni areas which are generally more receptive to autonomy.
Iran is still debating nukes. It doesn't have nukes. The Supreme Leader stood in the way of that. Somewhere down the line on the escalation ladder, Israel can use nukes. This is why Iran's moves have all been circumscribed by fear- because of Israeli nukes and the certainty that too hard of a push would invite U.S. retaliation in some form. It's kneecapped Iran. Smart leadership would realize that the U.S. wants Israel to do all the heavy lifting as it doesn't have the appetite or money for its own military adventures, and would then address Israel meaningfully so as to preclude that from happening. But we really don't have smart leadership.