Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Khansaheeb]

If ME oil is blocked, US/Europe will lift sanctions and buy directly from Russia which can increase production to meet any shortfall.

Also, Norway and the US have a lot of oil and gas. For decades, the US saved its own resources and bought from others to use up their resources. It was a strategic decision.

Russia will want to sell it at a hefty price to make up for all the losses imposed on it.

 

[BigMela2onin]

With two nuclear pwoers Pakistan and China behind Iran it becomes a highly risky enterprise to attack iran.

China would not help Iran and Pakistan definitely would not help in such a situation.

 

[UKBengali]

China would not help Iran and Pakistan definitely would not help in such a situation.

Why not as Iran is a key linchpin of the new world order that China has planned?

If Iran falls and the ME becomes Zio-US totally, then China is checkmated and Russia could then betray them eventually and make up with its "white brothers".

When China's key interests are at stake then it will go to war if it needs to. Look at Korea in 1950.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Why not as Iran is a key linchpin of the new world order that China has planned?

I doubt China sees it this way. Refer to their statements regarding territorial disputes in PG and siding with UAE. The seem to view western puppet states as a better option if they can get them to change sides.

This is partly Iran's fault as liberal factions have antagonized China to try to force reproachment with West as the only viable option. I suspect this has make Iran seem unreliable long term. Additionally prior to Raisi no serious effort was being undertaken to improve ties with China and likely will be stalled again with his death and Pezeshkian's election. So far all the "strategic agreements" have not amounted to much so far.

Besides that stopping NATO from setting up on your border is an easy decision; and Mao was a much more revolutionary and aggressive leader than Xi is, and China has much more to lose now than it did then.

 

[Khansaheeb]

Practically it can be done if those international players had the will to do it, and Iran would be left in a reactionary position again. Hence why Iran needs nukes...as a matter of urgency now

Iran has nukes, not sure how many though. Only factor putting of NATO doing a full attack on Iran is China with which both Pakistan and Iran have defense pact. When US and India were plannign a joint attack on Pakistan big bro China stepped in and warned them off. Also NATO has its guns in too many places and weaknesses in as many more. Collapse of Ukraine would cause a domino callapse in Europe and that is what NATO is fearful off and it cannot afford major wars in other theaters. Taiwan and the Korea peninsula are on the brink , Turkey is exerting it's power , China is expanding its presence into areas which were once US unchallenged regions of interest.

 

[Developereo]

I really think you have little to no idea how production of oil and gas fields work.

In simple terms, even if it was possible, it would take many years and 10s of billions of US dollars of investments to increase production by any useful amount. A lot of fields are already working at maximum economic production capacity. Only a few countries like KSA maintain spare capacity but that is only like 1 million barrels a day.

You just need to let this go as the consequences of loss of Iranian oil production would be massive. Of course Iran has already told the US that it would destroy all Gulfie oil and gas fields if its own are attacked.

No one is attacking Iranian oil facilities unless there is an all-out war and US will lose badly, Iran heavily damaged but the entity destroyed and wiped off the face of the planet.

You are living in fantasy land.
ME oil is not the weapon it was in the 1970s.
The last time Saudi tried to play games with oil production, the other countries stepped in to fill the gap and the Saudi oil income suffered.

The West is not stupid like Muslims. They learned their lesson from the 1970s and have made themselves less dependent on ME oil. Russia has spare capacity, Venezuela has spare capacity, Norway has spare capacity, the US has enormous spare capacity.

ME oil embargo will have an impact, but the only country that will be seriously harmed is China.

 

[Developereo]

I don't think he would want to leave a bad mark. An attack on Iran would be catastrophic.

I am hopeful he means it when he says the killing should stop and his dealings with NK can be a lesson. We should also appreciate how in practice he treated IK despite his rhetoric about a muslim ban.

Anyway, Israel can't afford to drag this out for another year....it may face an insurgency problem with thousands of fighters flocking to Lebanon/ Syria.

He should recognise that it's in Israeli interest to stop the blood lust esp in Lebanon. However from Israel perspective they have pretty much met their objectives in Gaza....

As I mentioned before, they will start with the soft targets like assassinating Iranian scientists.

Also, the West hasn't used even one percent of their wartime capacity. Don't believe the nonsense reports from Russia. The Zionist control of Western regimes is absolute, and they will send their last solider and their last bomb to defend Israel. They will triple their national debt to rebuild Israel from the ground up.

Russia will want to sell it at a hefty price to make up for all the losses imposed on it.

Russia needs the money just as much as the West needs oil. Both sides will compromise.

 

[jauk]

With Trump in power an attack by NATO for Israel on Iran is inevitable. All this money and slaughter the Zions don't want it wasted so they will focus on and attack the one key country that is resisting. With two nuclear pwoers Pakistan and China behind Iran it becomes a highly risky enterprise to attack iran. So let's see what dastardly scheme the Zions have up their sleeve. Most likely as they need time to digest Palestine they will just scare Iran off until they are ready, perhaps in a few decades time. Zions are playing a long patient strategic game.

Nonsense.

 

[jauk]

Iran has nukes, not sure how many though. Only factor putting of NATO doing a full attack on Iran is China with which both Pakistan and Iran have defense pact. When US and India were plannign a joint attack on Pakistan big bro China stepped in and warned them off. Also NATO has its guns in too many places and weaknesses in as many more. Collapse of Ukraine would cause a domino callapse in Europe and that is what NATO is fearful off and it cannot afford major wars in other theaters. Taiwan and the Korea peninsula are on the brink , Turkey is exerting it's power , China is expanding its presence into areas which were once US unchallenged regions of interest.

Nonsense.

 

[UKBengali]

Norway has spare capacity.

I am not even going to talk about the others but seriously you mentioned Norway here?!!


North Sea is a mature oil and gas area with diminishing reserves. What little may still be found is not going to make up for production.

Production forecasts - Norwegianpetroleum.no

Historical data and latest production outlook of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

www.norskpetroleum.no

Reserves are projected to fall, even with "undiscovered reserves":

 

[Developereo]

I am not even going to talk about the others but seriously you mentioned Norway here?!!


North Sea is a mature oil and gas area with diminishing reserves. What little may still be found is not going to make up for production.

Production forecasts - Norwegianpetroleum.no

Historical data and latest production outlook of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

www.norskpetroleum.no

View attachment 77895

Reserves are projected to fall, even with "undiscovered reserves":

View attachment 77896

We are not talking about reserves which, by the way, are huge.

Exports of Norwegian oil and gas - Norwegianpetroleum.no

Norway is a small player in the global crude market, but a larger player in the regional gas market. Nearly all oil and gas produced in Norway is exported, and combined, makes oil and gas the most important export commodities in the Norwegian economy.

www.norskpetroleum.no

Only about 40 per cent of Norway’s estimated gas resources have been produced so far. The production level is expected to remain high for the next 10 years.

What we are discussing here is what can be brought to market right away to make up for ME oil embargo. Smart countries use their resources wisely and let everybody else use up theirs. It would not surprise me one but if we find out that China has gigantic oil reserves. This is a national security issue, especially for the US. Production can be ramped up immediately in times of war.

 

[UKBengali]

What we are discussing here is what can be brought to market right away to make up for ME oil embargo. Smart countries use their resources wisely and let everybody else use up theirs. It would not surprise me one but if we find out that China has gigantic oil reserves. This is a national security issue, especially for the US. Production can be ramped up immediately in times of war.

The below table tells you just how much of the world reserves of oil that ME exports - odd they missed out Iran but that may be as it is under western sanctions. These 15 countries account for 85% of all world exports. So with the ME fields taken out the world has lost around 1/3rd of all exported oil.

Are you seriously expecting anyone here to think that anywhere near this amount can be replaced within say 3 months by raising production from producers like the US - remember the US increased exports of oil by just 1 million barrels after the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Exports from ME region was around 12-14 million barrels in 2023.

As for your "Production can be ramped up immediately in times of war" - please supply some valid evidence for this please with a credible link - just one would do.

Crude Oil Exports by Country 2024

Crude oil exports by country in 2024 including statistics for OPEC exports plus a searchable database of top 100 crude oil exporting nations

www.worldstopexports.com

 

[FHN]

The Arctic contains a large amount of oil and natural gas resources, including:
Undiscovered oil
The Arctic is estimated to contain 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, which is about 13% of the world's total.

Undiscovered natural gas
The Arctic is estimated to contain 1,669 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, which is about 30% of the world's total.

Natural gas liquids
The Arctic is estimated to contain 44 billion barrels of undiscovered natural gas liquids, which is about 38% of the world's total

The Arctic is the future battleground and Russia has a lot to gain from climate change. The West wants a Russia like under yeltsin where it's much easier to control through the oligarchs. Even with Trump in office Putin would not switch side but he would definitely take advantage of Trump strong man personality. Putin is no fool. Would Trump go to war Iran to hurt the world economies? he might but it can also backfire and cause havoc on US stock market. I'm kinda 50/50 on what Trump will do with Iran but it depends on who he selects for his foreign policy team. So far we know an Iranian hawk Brian hook is leading the charge

 

[Shadihassan28]

Trump will give Israel ‘blank check’ which may mean all-out war with Iran, says ex-CIA chief

Leon Panetta says he also expects US president-elect to favor letting Russia retain control of areas of Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

I have never been an advocate for nuclear weapons but I think iran has about two month to go deep underground and go for a crude test of nuclear weapon and let everyone else follow Saudi turkey(technically they have but under American lock and key) and Egyptians screw it why do you need stealth fighters when you can put the fear of extinction on either side equilibrium

 

[vmro]

As I mentioned before, they will start with the soft targets like assassinating Iranian scientists.

I am almost sure that political assassination of Bibi will be among first steps...3 decadeds decadence is existential dilemma for the Israel now, 3 decades of Bibi, after he previously politically and really assassinated Yitzhak Rabin, one of more normal people there, not drastically better but even that is too much to lead Tel Aviv...

Now is his turn, will survive, in jail..compromises are whore like politics...