PAF J-35AE - News, Updates and Discussions

[Alter_Ego]

Bro, you are an accomplished author, a tittle holder on this forum, making such comments doesn't suit you. Just ignore what you don't agree with and move on, let time prove procurement issues either way.

Deino might be knowledgeable.
But totally arrogant prick sometimes.

 

[Deino]

Unffortunately youve missed the mark Andreas.

Chinese price reductions come with a billion other things, an initial Chinese price reduction will probably end up being more costly in the long run thanks to shady and unfair Chinese business practices. Where is PL-15 for JF-17? What about supply of components, from what i know, atleast one factory was having issues with their Chinese supplier.

Infact, the Turks would likely jump at an opportunity to get Pakistan onboard, after all, it reduces the unit cost of the aircraft. China doesnt need this, Turkey does, the PAF would likely order similar numbers, if not more than the TuAF seriously reducing the burden on any one customer.

"As such you guys are funny … on the one side demanding it as soon as possible, in the best if not better configuration like China, to be built in Pakistan and best paid by China … just think about it and then tell me how likely this is."

Maybe its past your bedtime but id love to see where i said any of this...

Though, if you think the PAF will go all in on the J35 without requesting modifications to meet their operational requirements then i don't know what to tell you. I also dont know what to say if you dont think that the PAF will not be seeking some sort of production share for the order they may place. They are not just going to buy them in flyaway condition, any order that comes, will include a production deal at Kamra. Mark my words.

Hello Arslan, now I really have to set things straight but also actually apologize ... but also to explain!

Yes, it's true, YOU never said that - I lumped several quotes together - and mixed your statement in. That wasn't correct and I'm sorry.

BUT... I can understand your arguments well, especially based on your own much deeper experiences, but I still see Kaan as extremely questionable and even improbable.

My point is - and that is why I have put together several statements (especially from others) that I think point in the same direction: It doesn't make sense to claim on the one hand that the J-35A would only be accepted in the best version (even better than the one for the PLAAF), that it would be received earlier than the PLAAF by the end of 2025 (probably even to help the PLAAF perfect its testing), that it would ideally be received for free (quote from an old man: Pakistan doesn't have to pay, it just orders and China delivers) ... that the J-35A will be manufactured under license and China will ask for permission to do so, otherwise they will switch to Kaan.

As I said so often and also @Michael explained, 2025 is out of the question IMO, the PLAAF can very well certify its types on its own and - as you have also suggested - the price that Pakistan has to pay is high in one way or another!

And now to Kaan: Even if I miscalculated and the 01 machine actually flew, 02 is still a long way from that and even further from series production. And whether the own engine will be anything is also not clear yet. What is clear however, if ever it will come only later than the J-35A.

And finally: Kaan will be built in significantly smaller numbers, it will be built in Europe, where labor costs are generally higher than in China, it is larger (the two more powerful TWs alone will cost more) and more complex and therefore will most likely be significantly more expensive... and it is questionable whether Turkey will bear the additional costs alone in order to achieve export success!

So if Pakistan wants something early, then it can only be the J-35A with WS-21, only after it is in PLAAF service and a license production is IMO completely out of the question. Kamra may be allowed to manufacture certain components, but complete production (even with ToT) is completely out of the question.

And I would even turn it around: China knows about the situation in Pakistan and Turkey - Pakistan has no other option in the near future apart from the J-35A and Kaan is more than uncertain and even if it does, then only much later.

Ergo: If Pakistan wants something, then it will be on China's terms.

Deino might be knowledgeable.
But totally arrogant prick sometimes.

Guilty as charged! Yes, I am arrogant when it comes to facts and I hate nothing more than boasting, bragging, selling rumors as facts (see all the nonsense that is constantly being sold in the India section) because it is endlessly difficult to undo the damage afterwards and clarify things.

When one of the fanboys stands up and says "hey brother, I know we'll get J-16 & J-20" like three years ago, but then certain tabloids in the media write this, then you constantly have to explain why Deino doesn't write it because it was said on X or YoiTube, those guys just duck & cover and noone cares.

But I'm still fighting against such rumors today that China is already building its 4th aircraft carrier, that all 200 operational J-20s were equipped with WS-15 by 2019, and that the PLAAF is flying MiG-29s and Tu-22Ms, because Yefim Gordon once wrote this in one of his books, so why didn't I write this too?

 

[mythbuster]

Hello Arslan, now I really have to set things straight but also actually apologize ... but also to explain!

Yes, it's true, YOU never said that - I lumped several quotes together - and mixed your statement in. That wasn't correct and I'm sorry.

BUT... I can understand your arguments well, especially based on your own much deeper experiences, but I still see Kaan as extremely questionable and even improbable.

My point is - and that is why I have put together several statements (especially from others) that I think point in the same direction: It doesn't make sense to claim on the one hand that the J-35A would only be accepted in the best version (even better than the one for the PLAAF), that it would be received earlier than the PLAAF by the end of 2025 (probably even to help the PLAAF perfect its testing), that it would ideally be received for free (quote from an old man: Pakistan doesn't have to pay, it just orders and China delivers) ... that the J-35A will be manufactured under license and China will ask for permission to do so, otherwise they will switch to Kaan.

As I said so often and also @Michael explained, 2025 is out of the question IMO, the PLAAF can very well certify its types on its own and - as you have also suggested - the price that Pakistan has to pay is high in one way or another!

And now to Kaan: Even if I miscalculated and the 01 machine actually flew, 02 is still a long way from that and even further from series production. And whether the own engine will be anything is also not clear yet. What is clear however, if ever it will come only later than the J-35A.

And finally: Kaan will be built in significantly smaller numbers, it will be built in Europe, where labor costs are generally higher than in China, it is larger (the two more powerful TWs alone will cost more) and more complex and therefore will most likely be significantly more expensive... and it is questionable whether Turkey will bear the additional costs alone in order to achieve export success!

So if Pakistan wants something early, then it can only be the J-35A with WS-21, only after it is in PLAAF service and a license production is IMO completely out of the question. Kamra may be allowed to manufacture certain components, but complete production (even with ToT) is completely out of the question.

And I would even turn it around: China knows about the situation in Pakistan and Turkey - Pakistan has no other option in the near future apart from the J-35A and Kaan is more than uncertain and even if it does, then only much later.

Ergo: If Pakistan wants something, then it will be on China's terms.



Guilty as charged! Yes, I am arrogant when it comes to facts and I hate nothing more than boasting, bragging, selling rumors as facts (see all the nonsense that is constantly being sold in the India section) because it is endlessly difficult to undo the damage afterwards and clarify things.

When one of the fanboys stands up and says "hey brother, I know we'll get J-16 & J-20" like three years ago, but then certain tabloids in the media write this, then you constantly have to explain why Deino doesn't write it because it was said on X or YoiTube, those guys just duck & cover and noone cares.

But I'm still fighting against such rumors today that China is already building its 4th aircraft carrier, that all 200 operational J-20s were equipped with WS-15 by 2019, and that the PLAAF is flying MiG-29s and Tu-22Ms, because Yefim Gordon once wrote this in one of his books, so why didn't I write this too?

With all due respect , you , along with few others , are in stuck in frivolous debate on technicalities , production capacities and timelines etc ......ignoring the elephant in the room Strategic compulsion .....

 

[Deino]

With all due respect , you , along with few others , are in stuck in frivolous debate on technicalities , production capacities and timelines etc ......ignoring the elephant in the room Strategic compulsion .....

I'm not ignoring the elephant in the room and "Strategic compulsion" is well understood, but regardless how urgent the PAF wants that bird - in the same way Turkish members constantly want to portray the situation in the Aegean as if hordes of Greek will immediately conquer the Turkish empire and so Kaan is a MUST have now - there are laws of engineering, rules of flight testing & certification or just simply reality.

And that's the point, a toddler screaming in the supermarket that he wants a LOLLIPOP NOW or the world is going to end, won't get it any faster because of that, or an even more vehement demand that Tejas Mk.2 be "the best of the best" by some Indians doesn't make it real.

 

[mythbuster]

It's futile to to try to belittle the issue ..... it's not cries of the kids , it's cries of the dead and dying .....thusidide trap is not some kind of intellectual masterba**"*....... it's real ... don't be fooled by the calm before the storm .

 

[Deino]

It's futile to to try to belittle the issue ..... it's not cries of the kids , it's cries of the dead and dying .....thusidide trap is not some kind of intellectual masterba**"*....... it's real ... don't be fooled by the calm before the storm .

it's not belittling anything ... it was never belittling Pakistan nor the PAF to question such claims J-16 & J-20 would be available, it was no belittling to question claims there will be more than 50, if not 80+ J-10C soon ... and now we still have only just 20! And it is no belittling to question any claims, Pakistan might get the J-35A before the PLAAF, in a more capable form and almost for free by late 2025. Again, it's not belittling, it's called being realistic.

 

[Quwa]

This is certainly what the PAF wants. I do wonder if that's what they'll get. I would wager that the whole PFX thing is the third (and most likely) option for the JF-17 line being kept open. Not saying PFX will actually succeed (read my signature lol) but I am thinking that even the PAF isn't too hopeful of TFX or J-35 workshare. There's a certain level of hadharami at PAC Kamra that I don't know how was overcome with the JF-17. The Turks do not have the stomach for the danda/spoonfeeding that will be needed for a possible TFX workshare. I saw first hand what their attempts to start that came to.

Honestly, I would think perhaps China would like another production line - just to ramp up production. Couple of reasons:
1. PAC Kamra, AMF, are all Chinese designed and built anyway. There is stupid levels of commonality with production lines in China.
2. J-35s will sell like hot cakes and China will need them for themselves too.
3. China has experiencing doing workshare with PAC.

It would probably be structural.

One of the supposed parts of CPEC was to set up a production line in Pakistan that would manufacture a next-gen fighter for the PAF and other markets.

China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn (Published 2018)

Under a program China insisted was peaceful, Pakistan is cooperating on distinctly defense-related projects, including a secret plan to build new fighter jets.

www.nytimes.com

Ultimately, I think we'll see a situation where a fighter production line will be set up within Pakistan, but away from the hands of PAC (and, by extension, the PAF leadership). There's a 'bigger shark' in all this and that's the Army leadership, which is basically the guarantor for NESCOM, SUPARCO, and HIT.

Not the ideal scenario (see the results in HIT and SUPARCO), but okay, it may be better than leaving anything with PAC.

With NESCOM rolling out more products, I can see a scenario where NESCOM becomes the principal manufacturer of a next-gen fighter and UCAV via a new subdivision.

 

[Jamie]

it's not belittling anything ... it was never belittling Pakistan nor the PAF to question such claims J-16 & J-20 would be available, it was no belittling to question claims there will be more than 50, if not 80+ J-10C soon ... and now we still have only just 20! And it is no belittling to question any claims, Pakistan might get the J-35A before the PLAAF, in a more capable form and almost for free by late 2025. Again, it's not belittling, it's called being realistic.

Pakistan won’t get it before China fulfills it’s own requirements. Plus it’s not like SAC has whole mature manufacturing line up and running churning out J-35s . We see how slowly China grew the line for J-20.

I don’t see Pakistan getting a dozen before 2027-28 at earliest. Might be getting more j-10s earlier but the j-35? Nope.

If Pakistan does get a squadron in 25-26 like the rumors say then it would be nothing short of a miracle.

The hype is nothing more than the current ACM beating about to leave his legacy. Never had the Paf prematurely reveled an important near future project like this before.
But desires don’t turn to fruition before the destined time.

 

[Jamie]

One of the supposed parts of CPEC was to set up a production line in Pakistan that would manufacture a next-gen fighter for the PAF and other markets.

China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn (Published 2018)

Under a program China insisted was peaceful, Pakistan is cooperating on distinctly defense-related projects, including a secret plan to build new fighter jets.

www.nytimes.com

Ultimately, I think we'll see a situation where a fighter production line will be set up within Pakistan, but away from the hands of PAC (and, by extension, the PAF leadership). There's a 'bigger shark' in all this and that's the Army leadership, which is basically the guarantor for NESCOM, SUPARCO, and HIT.

Not the ideal scenario (see the results in HIT and SUPARCO), but okay, it may be better than leaving anything with PAC.

With NESCOM rolling out more products, I can see a scenario where NESCOM becomes the principal manufacturer of a next-gen fighter and UCAV via a new subdivision.

What if they try to push it onto NASTP? :/

 

[mythbuster]

What if they try to push it onto NASTP? :/

If you mean the entire PAC that would be dream come true.

 

[Jamie]

If you mean the entire PAC that would be dream come true.

Nope… NASTP has alot to prove .
Plus the rumors of toxic work environment with clueless retirees taking leadership roles of important projects is going to be its downfall.
It should not become a home for providing jobs for retiring officers but rather an innovation and research hub.
Therefore I believe any project handed to them will face severe problems.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[dbc]

The JF-17 is essentially a 3rd generation fighter. While CAC has upgraded it to a 4th gen fighter through various technologies, its inherent flaws dictate that it is very difficult to operate in concert with 5th gen fighters. ------ Fighter formations of a show or opinion nature are not part of this discussion.
Other than the J-10CE, the PAF has no other fighter that can operate in concert with the J-35.

the only thing JF-17 needs for joint missions with a Chinese 4th generation platform is a compatible data link for two way comms - there is no other limiting factor.

 

[Michael]

Hello Arslan, now I really have to set things straight but also actually apologize ... but also to explain!

Yes, it's true, YOU never said that - I lumped several quotes together - and mixed your statement in. That wasn't correct and I'm sorry.

BUT... I can understand your arguments well, especially based on your own much deeper experiences, but I still see Kaan as extremely questionable and even improbable.

My point is - and that is why I have put together several statements (especially from others) that I think point in the same direction: It doesn't make sense to claim on the one hand that the J-35A would only be accepted in the best version (even better than the one for the PLAAF), that it would be received earlier than the PLAAF by the end of 2025 (probably even to help the PLAAF perfect its testing), that it would ideally be received for free (quote from an old man: Pakistan doesn't have to pay, it just orders and China delivers) ... that the J-35A will be manufactured under license and China will ask for permission to do so, otherwise they will switch to Kaan.

As I said so often and also @Michael explained, 2025 is out of the question IMO, the PLAAF can very well certify its types on its own and - as you have also suggested - the price that Pakistan has to pay is high in one way or another!

And now to Kaan: Even if I miscalculated and the 01 machine actually flew, 02 is still a long way from that and even further from series production. And whether the own engine will be anything is also not clear yet. What is clear however, if ever it will come only later than the J-35A.

And finally: Kaan will be built in significantly smaller numbers, it will be built in Europe, where labor costs are generally higher than in China, it is larger (the two more powerful TWs alone will cost more) and more complex and therefore will most likely be significantly more expensive... and it is questionable whether Turkey will bear the additional costs alone in order to achieve export success!

So if Pakistan wants something early, then it can only be the J-35A with WS-21, only after it is in PLAAF service and a license production is IMO completely out of the question. Kamra may be allowed to manufacture certain components, but complete production (even with ToT) is completely out of the question.

And I would even turn it around: China knows about the situation in Pakistan and Turkey - Pakistan has no other option in the near future apart from the J-35A and Kaan is more than uncertain and even if it does, then only much later.

Ergo: If Pakistan wants something, then it will be on China's terms.



Guilty as charged! Yes, I am arrogant when it comes to facts and I hate nothing more than boasting, bragging, selling rumors as facts (see all the nonsense that is constantly being sold in the India section) because it is endlessly difficult to undo the damage afterwards and clarify things.

When one of the fanboys stands up and says "hey brother, I know we'll get J-16 & J-20" like three years ago, but then certain tabloids in the media write this, then you constantly have to explain why Deino doesn't write it because it was said on X or YoiTube, those guys just duck & cover and noone cares.

But I'm still fighting against such rumors today that China is already building its 4th aircraft carrier, that all 200 operational J-20s were equipped with WS-15 by 2019, and that the PLAAF is flying MiG-29s and Tu-22Ms, because Yefim Gordon once wrote this in one of his books, so why didn't I write this too?

In fact, I have often been accused by some of my Pakistani friends of the same “arrogance”.
Well, so be it. I will continue to stick to my attitude of “analytical research based on objective reality”. I hope you will continue to do the same.

One of the supposed parts of CPEC was to set up a production line in Pakistan that would manufacture a next-gen fighter for the PAF and other markets.

China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn (Published 2018)

Under a program China insisted was peaceful, Pakistan is cooperating on distinctly defense-related projects, including a secret plan to build new fighter jets.

www.nytimes.com

Ultimately, I think we'll see a situation where a fighter production line will be set up within Pakistan, but away from the hands of PAC (and, by extension, the PAF leadership). There's a 'bigger shark' in all this and that's the Army leadership, which is basically the guarantor for NESCOM, SUPARCO, and HIT.

Not the ideal scenario (see the results in HIT and SUPARCO), but okay, it may be better than leaving anything with PAC.

With NESCOM rolling out more products, I can see a scenario where NESCOM becomes the principal manufacturer of a next-gen fighter and UCAV via a new subdivision.

I noticed your “Research Partner” status. I'm not sure what this means in the English context, but I can only guess that you are a research professional. However, from the way you analyze the problem, I think your approach is wrong. Wrong methods will lead to wrong results. And you, as a professional researcher, will further amplify the impact of that wrong result. So, I must speak my mind.

Our study of the military power of any country, or the relationship between two countries, should be based on the reality of that country. Obviously, it would be a joke to try to judge China's decision-making through the analytical articles of the New York Times.

I am a business strategy designer. My recent research has been on South Asian countries. Obviously, I don't study Pakistan through the Indian media, and I certainly don't judge India through what Pakistan says. I will make some basic judgments by directly interacting with members of the countries in question, and when the conditions are ripe, I will personally travel to these countries myself to actually learn about them and corroborate my previous judgments, thus forming conclusions.
I appreciate @Deino 's attitude in analyzing the issue. He is the only non-Chinese person on PDF who knows the real meaning of “三姨夫”. It's a very obscure term used by Chinese military fans, and ordinary Chinese people don't know what it really means. We can thus see his attitude towards research. As a matter of fact, Chinese military enthusiasts use a lot of similar terminology when communicating with each other.
So, dear @Quwa , if you want to really understand and study Chinese military, you should try to study Chinese media first.
For example, “小甜甜 Little Sweetie” and “牛夫人 Mrs. Cow” are two terms often used by Chinese military fans, so you can try to understand their real meanings first.

 

[mythbuster]

In fact, I have often been accused by some of my Pakistani friends of the same “arrogance”.
Well, so be it. I will continue to stick to my attitude of “analytical research based on objective reality”. I hope you will continue to do the same.


I noticed your “Research Partner” status. I'm not sure what this means in the English context, but I can only guess that you are a research professional. However, from the way you analyze the problem, I think your approach is wrong. Wrong methods will lead to wrong results. And you, as a professional researcher, will further amplify the impact of that wrong result. So, I must speak my mind.

Our study of the military power of any country, or the relationship between two countries, should be based on the reality of that country. Obviously, it would be a joke to try to judge China's decision-making through the analytical articles of the New York Times.

I am a business strategy designer. My recent research has been on South Asian countries. Obviously, I don't study Pakistan through the Indian media, and I certainly don't judge India through what Pakistan says. I will make some basic judgments by directly interacting with members of the countries in question, and when the conditions are ripe, I will personally travel to these countries myself to actually learn about them and corroborate my previous judgments, thus forming conclusions.
I appreciate @Deino 's attitude in analyzing the issue. He is the only non-Chinese person on PDF who knows the real meaning of “三姨夫”. It's a very obscure term used by Chinese military fans, and ordinary Chinese people don't know what it really means. We can thus see his attitude towards research. As a matter of fact, Chinese military enthusiasts use a lot of similar terminology when communicating with each other.
So, dear @Quwa , if you want to really understand and study Chinese military, you should try to study Chinese media first.
For example, “小甜甜 Little Sweetie” and “牛夫人 Mrs. Cow” are two terms often used by Chinese military fans, so you can try to understand their real meanings first.

It seems you have a knack for complicating the things.... Little S weetie sounds seductive but who has the patience for Mrs.Cow ?.... simplicity has her own charm ...