Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

[Pingle]

And lindian will be....

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Well your video is not even running and this is just a response to this thread title about America reaction to Taiwan invasion by China.... if you want to feel good by dragging India into everything then go ahead.... I can't stop you.....

 

[UKBengali]

China would win in 2026 but at some moderate cost and widespread destruction in Taiwan.

US Navy would be mainly sunk if they do no retreat and if Japan joins in it would be "decapitated" as a serious military power by Chinese missile strikes. Look how powerful Iran is and scale this up by x10 to get an idea of Chinese missile power - mainly due to better accuracy and penetration capability and not just numbers.

By 2030 it would be game over for US as China would have 500 J-20/J-20A and 200 J-35A/N and the USN would have no answer to 4-5 squadrons of J-35Ns on the Fujian carrier.

 

[liuzhengdong]

Foot soldiers war where only China and Vietnam are good..... modern wars neither they have any experience nor they have ever fired even single artillery shell angrily.... most China is capable of showing some guts to fire water cannon against Philippines ships...... talk about today.....

China has more experience in modern warfare than India. China's drone forces have participated in the civil war in northern Myanmar and the Yemeni civil war. The Indian army has no experience in modern warfare and only dares to suppress Maoist armed forces at home.

China used water cannons to attack Philippine ships, and the United States and the Philippines did not dare to fire.

 

[j_hungary]

But thats just it, the US or Japan are not foolish enough to directly get involved. They understand the implications whether win or not, the losses and risk of nuclear escalation is too great.

Well, that depends on a lot of different factors.

First and foremost, if US can't replicate Taiwanese Semi-conductor tech somewhere outside Taiwan, the American will 100% dig very deep to protect Taiwan as there are no other alternative and 91% of world semi-conductor are from Taiwan

Second is whether or not if US would indirectly assist Taiwan, if they do, then that mean US ship is going to ship things to Taiwan during the war. Which mean either China would need to somehow able to stop the flow or let US turn Taiwan into Ukraine or the Chinese would have to pre-empt the American in Japan, which is where that equipment will come from. Which make US direct involvement in Taiwan 50/50, in fact, the war game I myself played have China pre-empted the American in Guam and Japan and bring both US and Japan into the war. This is a similar choice to the Japanese during WW2. It's a strategic choice between you want the American to meddle and complicate your war? Or you try to preempt it like the Jap did with Pearl Harbour and hope you can conquer Taiwan first before US can put their foot down? Most intelligence analyst would choose the latter.

The only way this war will guarantee the Chinese not fighting the American is as if the American don't even offer indirect support, ie sending weapon and munition. So either the Chinese will need to outdo the Russian in Ukraine by capitulate the Taiwanese faster than the Russian, faster than the American can react, which is harder to say than have to do it, because US would know before hand (Well, you can't just teleport your troop across an ocean) and you are talking about an amphibious operation, which is the hardest and the most complicated to pull off against a near peer, or US somehow not interested in helping Taiwan in any way.

 

[j_hungary]

China has the world's most advanced and largest supersonic anti-ship missile group.
The US Navy faces thousands of supersonic missiles. China can easily sink US aircraft carriers with supersonic missiles.
The most advanced anti-ship missile in the United States is the subsonic AGM-158C. Its subsonic speed can be easily intercepted by the 055/052D air defense system. It is impossible to sink a Chinese aircraft carrier.
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This is not about missile tech, this is about how the war is fought, even if you are talking about 100% accuracy, Taiwan is an island which mean China need to have at least 5 fleets to entirely cordon off Taiwan, you can't maintain sea control 24/7 with 3 fleet. You need a pentagon to encircle an island, not a triangle.

Also, ship movement are mobile, and you are talking about a Navy with the largest nuclear submarine fleet (75 nuclear sub) that your anti-ship missile can't touch, and the most capable Naval Combat Aircraft in the world, while the US can draw the PLA Fleet away off to the East if the Chinese want to maintain their naval cordon, China have to stay within the area because you are providing naval support to your ground troop.

Both things put together, your missile can't do much if you are fixed in an area infested with sub. You either have to stand there and get punched by US Naval Aviation, or you try to chase the American fleet in Sub infested West Pacific

 

[AjayGhatak]

Well, that depends on a lot of different factors.

First and foremost, if US can't replicate Taiwanese Semi-conductor tech somewhere outside Taiwan, the American will 100% dig very deep to protect Taiwan as there are no other alternative and 91% of world semi-conductor are from Taiwan

Second is whether or not if US would indirectly assist Taiwan, if they do, then that mean US ship is going to ship things to Taiwan during the war. Which mean either China would need to somehow able to stop the flow or let US turn Taiwan into Ukraine or the Chinese would have to pre-empt the American in Japan, which is where that equipment will come from. Which make US direct involvement in Taiwan 50/50, in fact, the war game I myself played have China pre-empted the American in Guam and Japan and bring both US and Japan into the war. This is a similar choice to the Japanese during WW2. It's a strategic choice between you want the American to meddle and complicate your war? Or you try to preempt it like the Jap did with Pearl Harbour and hope you can conquer Taiwan first before US can put their foot down? Most intelligence analyst would choose the latter.

The only way this war will guarantee the Chinese not fighting the American is as if the American don't even offer indirect support, ie sending weapon and munition. So either the Chinese will need to outdo the Russian in Ukraine by capitulate the Taiwanese faster than the Russian, faster than the American can react, which is harder to say than have to do it, because US would know before hand (Well, you can't just teleport your troop across an ocean) and you are talking about an amphibious operation, which is the hardest and the most complicated to pull off against a near peer, or US somehow not interested in helping Taiwan in any way.

If I were Taiwan, I would be investing in a nuke in the basement. That and 20-30 ballistic missiles.

China will not be uppity if it knows Shenzen, Beijing and most of the east coast is toast if they dare attack.

Apparently, simple threats work the best.

 

[j_hungary]

If I were Taiwan, I would be investing in a nuke in the basement. That and 20-30 ballistic missiles.

China will not be uppity if it knows Shenzen, Beijing and most of the east coast is toast if they dare attack.

Apparently, simple threats work the best.

Ukraine show the Taiwanese a lot on how to deal and negate any naval superiority from your enemy, if I was Taiwan, I will do what the Ukrainian do. That is to invest in asymmetric naval warfare.

What the Ukrainian did is basically follow the first rule of naval warfare, which is the defence have the advantage on where you can position your defence, yes ocean is vast, but you know where the Chinese Navy is going to be ending up at the end of the day, the Chinese Navy can run around Taiwan strait or even South China sea but at the end of the day, they will need to pin themselves against the Taiwanese coast in order to conduct any operation, which mean for the Chinese navy, there are a lot of factor to consider as to how they can maintain the Sea LOC (Sea Line of Communication) but for the Taiwanese, they only need to care about a certain area. Because you don't need to totally defeat your enemy to deny their sea dominance, you only need to strike when you know where to hit, and you know any Chinese fleet operating in Taiwan will be close to Taiwan.

This is how the Ukrainian get the upper hand even when they do not have a single capital ship and Russian black sea fleet is now nothing but a black eye. If I was the Taiwanese, I will look into how the Ukrainian did it and copy their way. Because a missile hitting a Chinese APC on Taiwan shore, you may be talking about 8 or 10 killed, but the same missile hitting a transport ship, you are talking about 300-400 dead. And you know those transport ship is going to land in Taiwan......Because that's their entire war is for.......

 

[100%_Guest]

If I were Taiwan, I would be investing in a nuke in the basement. That and 20-30 ballistic missiles.

China will not be uppity if it knows Shenzen, Beijing and most of the east coast is toast if they dare attack.

Apparently, simple threats work the best.

indirectly saying CN is AFRAID of Lindians?
In me BIG A kt poops making dung holes....
cn only has SMALL H mt farts Tiny-weeny craters

 

[Pingle]

What is Lindia? This is CN post...why butt in and becomes epileptic...

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So you are running out of arguments and posting non relevant things to thread topic..... I don't have time for you......

 

[100%_Guest]

So you are running out of arguments and posting non relevant things to thread topic..... I don't have time for you......

chow

 

[Pingle]

China has more experience in modern warfare than India. China's drone forces have participated in the civil war in northern Myanmar and the Yemeni civil war. The Indian army has no experience in modern warfare and only dares to suppress Maoist armed forces at home.

China used water cannons to attack Philippine ships, and the United States and the Philippines did not dare to fire.

Lol first prove Chinese drones are doing these things.....
And you talking about drones warfare? India has seen real battles and have used airforce, navy, submarines and aircraft carriers, used ballistic missiles and attacked ports cf enemy...... have seen the toughest ariel battles in kargil type terrain..... compare this to Chinese so called drones activities..... America is a different beast at all....
Chinese can come up with any weapons but the bottom line is they lack aggression..... they are good at doing business and trade..... when they will meet something like America on the battle field they will chicken out......

 

[ety]

Foot soldiers war where only China and Vietnam are good..... modern wars neither they have any experience nor they have ever fired even single artillery shell angrily.... most China is capable of showing some guts to fire water cannon against Philippines ships...... talk about today.....

And yes, they recently beat 20 Indian soldiers to death using only sticks too.

 

[Pingle]

And yes, they recently beat 20 Indian soldiers to death using only sticks too.

What about your casualties which you first denied to zero and after year accepted 5? And that too wasn't a modern fight..... go and stick to do what are you good at.... trade and prosperous..... ladai jhagda aapke liye nahi hai....

 

[liuzhengdong]

Lol first prove Chinese drones are doing these things.....
And you talking about drones warfare? India has seen real battles and have used airforce, navy, submarines and aircraft carriers, used ballistic missiles and attacked ports cf enemy...... have seen the toughest ariel battles in kargil type terrain..... compare this to Chinese so called drones activities..... America is a different beast at all....
Chinese can come up with any weapons but the bottom line is they lack aggression..... they are good at doing business and trade..... when they will meet something like America on the battle field they will chicken out......

The Burmese Han armed forces, which only had light weapons, defeated 20,000 Burmese regular troops with the cooperation of Chinese drones and occupied 20,000 square kilometers of land.
You are still immersed in the victory 50 years ago. The war 50 years ago is already very backward in modern times. At the same time, the Chinese air defense forces supporting Vietnam shot down thousands of American fighter planes. The Kargil War was very difficult for you. The Chinese Air Force could resolve the battle by dropping a few heavy bombs to flatten the top of the mountain.
China emphasizes: I will not offend others if others do not offend me. If others offend me, I will offend them. China has sent 300 soldiers to Pakistan to participate in the fight against terrorism.

 

[AjayGhatak]

Ukraine show the Taiwanese a lot on how to deal and negate any naval superiority from your enemy, if I was Taiwan, I will do what the Ukrainian do. That is to invest in asymmetric naval warfare.

What the Ukrainian did is basically follow the first rule of naval warfare, which is the defence have the advantage on where you can position your defence, yes ocean is vast, but you know where the Chinese Navy is going to be ending up at the end of the day, the Chinese Navy can run around Taiwan strait or even South China sea but at the end of the day, they will need to pin themselves against the Taiwanese coast in order to conduct any operation, which mean for the Chinese navy, there are a lot of factor to consider as to how they can maintain the Sea LOC (Sea Line of Communication) but for the Taiwanese, they only need to care about a certain area. Because you don't need to totally defeat your enemy to deny their sea dominance, you only need to strike when you know where to hit, and you know any Chinese fleet operating in Taiwan will be close to Taiwan.

This is how the Ukrainian get the upper hand even when they do not have a single capital ship and Russian black sea fleet is now nothing but a black eye. If I was the Taiwanese, I will look into how the Ukrainian did it and copy their way. Because a missile hitting a Chinese APC on Taiwan shore, you may be talking about 8 or 10 killed, but the same missile hitting a transport ship, you are talking about 300-400 dead. And you know those transport ship is going to land in Taiwan......Because that's their entire war is for.......

You see, the problem with China is they can overwhelm Taiwan. With people. You kill a lot but a lot more will still keep on coming. From sea and from Air.

You hit their fleet with a "Force de Freppe" French style, they will know that it is the end of the road, next is 30 warheads all over Shenzen Beijing etc and they will behave.

At worst, China can try and destroy entire entire Taiwan but then it gets pushed back so badly that it will never rise again.

Once they realise this they will throw all of this "One China" delusion and all of this conflict can finally die. This entire "Lets go back to glorious past" has been problem in Asia. Once they know that they have to let the damn past die they can move forward.