Trump has no power. 2025 is not 2017 anymore.
I disagree, Trump has turned the Republican Party into his own cult.
Also for the first time in a long time all branches of power in the U.S. :
House of reps
Senate
Executive
Supreme Court
Are all dominated by one party (Republicans) many whom owe their spot because of Trump. So for at least 2 years (mid term elections) Trump and his cult will have free rein to do what they please. After 2 years assuming he hasn’t destroyed his own country with brain dead policies and republicans still manage to hold the power centers then he might have another 2 more years of power.
However, it’s hard to say how the party will act his last 2 years knowing he can’t run again as president. Will they turn on him or will he remain a king maker for years to come?
Either way Compare the current situation to his last term when the democrats controlled the Senate and the house was more evenly divided. This meant that there was some element of pragmatic nature still in Washington. Now it is entirely populist and anti foreigners.
So saying Trump doesn’t have power in 2025 is not factual. He and the Republican can pass very serve restrictions on Iran with little to no room for any more pragmatic voices in Washington to be heard.
At the end of the day that will mean once again weaponizing the dollar and weaponizing access to the U.S. economy for countries that don’t fall in line.
The difference is Russia this time might not go along unless Trump throws some carrots their way (force Ukraine to give up some land). China is still very much connected to US economy and will likely leverage any Iran Maximum Pressure Campaign to extract concessions on its own likely head to head battle on tariffs.
Europe, well you have seen at the IAEA it is Europe leading all these censure resolutions not the U.S. so Europe has become more hardliners after their own populist waves.
So yes, Iran is probably better insulated from another Maximum Pressure Campaign vs last time when they were taken by surprise a U.S. President would rip up the first major diplomatic agreement between the two powers in nearly half a century.
However, inflation in Iran and regional tensions continue to erode the rial and trade with foreign nations has been tough. Dollar still rules the world despite inroads that Russia, China, BRICS have made, it’s a very long road to dollar irrelevance.
