Yes, so you are aiding your enemy. The killer of Solemani and Khamenai Sr. And tens of other Iranian officials. For what are you giving your enemy such a gift?
And the alternative is?
One cannot sit in an open ended conflict. Iran can now do reciprocal sanctions just because it controls the straits. The same companies that didn't do business or do business with Iran, do not get access. Ones who comply against Iran and want in...
I don't think you're thinking it through. This was the very leverage that US used to stifle competition... choke off dollars or dollar denominated transactions was and is essentially to choke energy of those states. Found in abundance in some places and not in others... with GCC complying and leveraging petro dollar... US stopped sale of Iranian oil by blocking the transactions... not the ships inbound through the straits.
This choke essentially ends that monopoly. Besides not allowing US or any allied warships access through the straits...
Of course, it will take time to consolidate and become systemic. What orange needs is a face saver he can sell...
Listen I’m not sure if you have ever done a business deal or hell sold something to someone. But if they tell you I will give $100 today and then the rest in a month or two. Guess what you will NEVER see the rest. It’s just a formality.
So the first 60 days Iran can act like a boss. But once the middle lane opens up then Iran is really just a mall cop with no powers.
And when Iran tries to secure a permanent deal then, Trump will play hardball and Iran will have to choose with closing the strait and going under an economic blockade or meekly trying to get some face saving concessions and giving up the strait.
This is Iran’s fault. They are the ones who made their red line the FULL control of the strait of Hormuz. And now once again they will let that redline be violated like the rest of the redlines they have set the past 30 years.
Iran has 60 days to institutionalize it's hold. There is no way any paper signed or any "truth social" meme going to dictate another burning bulk carrier in the straits. During that time it can arrange the chess board while keeping the eyes on the ball. Orange is teetering on the brink... saving the bond market right now by buying useless Yens!!
Trying to avert an energy crisis and global recession. Running debt like never before with empty coffers... and amongst the highest yields ever... remember last year treasury under Bessent was buying longterm bonds and converting them into short term ones... because they were relatively cheaper... in hopes that once the interest rates drop ... they'd swap them back on to longterm. It has backfired... they've a lot of short term reaching maturity, while longterm are peaking. You don't get it...
Oil markets are manipulated... in hopes that paper will never meet reality. This is not a permanent gamble.... the GCC money is on knifes edge... together with their western investments and now needs at home... they bet the wrong horse... and orange didn't bother with their losses... favoring himself over everyone else. Well, that means they for once are in a spot of bother as well... what to do when they never invested in a backup. Chinese economy is built on global demand... they don't want to burn the house down... they want to take ownership. They're learning on the fly as well... about their prospects.
So, yes... and there is much unsaid... needless to say... it only gets more complicated from here...
