Flotilla
Trusted Member
Honestly, a chimp with a pen it is more serious and credible than Hegseth.
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Flotilla
Trusted Member
There is something about what you’re saying that doesn’t add up. It was Trump who pushed for that agreement, not the other way around.
Furthermore, I don’t agree that using the central or northern corridor is a bad idea. That would be tantamount to admitting that Iran would have maritime traffic within artillery range.
Finally, pending publication of the text, it appears to be an agreement concerning only Hormuz. This implies that during those hypothetical three or four months, Iran will have a free hand not only to rearm with missiles but also to enrich more uranium and advance its military nuclear program.
Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ
Trusted Member
Who wants to have the straits opened by giving Iran ownership?
Of course Iran can keep the choke on... or, perhaps they want to have their oil sailing to China again as well.
The fight past the straits is not one Iran can sway... not now.
So the deterrence you're talking about doesn't exist. However, one that stops any attack on Iran needs Iran to finally go nuclear. The MAD has to be established to deter that...
And nothing less.
for everything else control of the Straits is enough.
Don't go by him...
But consolidate on gains... for that you have to know that the control of Hormuz is a material change from what existed before.
Of course, orange clown would want to claw back to status quo ante... but that isn't Iran's job to stop him from saying or doing what he does!
You cannot trust him... but you cannot surrender on what you hold now either... that is difference between physical and abstract.
As long as Iran will keep standing up for is it's...
A piece of paper is meaningless against reality on the ground. The reality will follow around to it...
Some on these pages wanted MoU understood at length. Well, something got defind, right?
Again, never trust the one who means you harm... but wants to keep own prospects in order as well. Orange didn't attack Iran for nukes... that is what he said or says publicly... what they wanted or want is the collapse of the state itself... for the benefit of zion... which is why the smug Mileikowsky had his best meeting yet with orange. With Iran staying intact... it can go nuclear.... i don't think there is a choice now.
Why are the reserves dropping? While European and US are still dropping. Japan has recovered some... Chinese dropped their purchase... of course the disruption has been managed and not widespread to cause immediate pain at the pumps of energy shortages... and that is the purpose os having reserves... but paper prospects can be managed outside of coming risk... in hopes of resumption of sale again. The chokes on global shipping don't only hold energy supplies... they impact upstream as well. For now the markets are liquid enough... and that is a gamble itself... which is why orange tweets and banks on messaging. It sells...
Thus far... much of these concerns are indirect to US itself... which is why orange could gamble with European, or east Asian energy supplies... make Europe buy more of the US instead as Condy Rice once said... but that is not Iran's concern... which is to remove a hostile power from across the globe to move away from it's shores and borders. The region around it is itself energy deficient. Iran has to pursue it's own markets outside of manipulation from across the globe. The prospects of people in the region depend on it.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
Moreover, Spain bought 4 Patriots batteries (I would prefer Aster, but Government bought Patriot). None of them have been delivered and delays will increase sine die.
But must be frank at this point. 400 or 1000 Pac3 missiles won't change much. Irán has developed techniques to supress the batteries with Kheybar shekan and Fattah 1 missiles. So even if US will use this time to produce more interceptors the equation won't change in a meaningful way.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Master Chief
Trusted Member
Actually tending to agree with this perspective nowadays.
Media reports regarding civilisation ending bombing runs and negotiations being close to completion are summarily treated as market manipulation and nothing more. Why on earth would we treat press releases about supposedly depleted inventories any differently?
US is most probably well stocked. Iran needs to find different levers to pull to gain a genuine strategic edge.
SolarWarden
Trusted Member
Let's see CNN who has a bias agenda and whose source on this classified info being the famous "unknown source" or the guy that is actually in the know how many interceptors he has in inventory...
SolarWarden
Trusted Member
I'm pretty sure PAC 3 and THAAD interceptors were starting to run critically low during Epic Furry and 12 day war with Israel which is no surprise since the AO is not where they store the missiles which is why when there was a pause in battle you saw a train of C-17's which were likely replenishing the launchers with interceptors.
Professor Jiang
Registered Member
Meengla
Elite Member
Immortal was referring to something else and you are to something else and both of you are correct: Iran is unable to hit the US fleet which is at a good distance from Iran but also, as you saying, Iran spared those US vessels which came very close to Iranian land some months ago.
I believe Iranians have tried to avoid causing major casualties to the American sailors so far. Imagine if 100 dead bodies arrived in America. Music to Netanyahu ears and a stimulus for the war hawks in America.
Meengla
Elite Member
The latest round of hostilities started after some cargo vessels tried to use an alternate round, which was against the Islamabad MOU, and those vessels were shot at by Iran. And now there is discussion about some kind of arrangements between Iran/Oman and even 'Fees' for environmental reasons. Even NY Times has referred to an 'emerging' deal in an article within last two days and I posted that.
Can we not see who is conceding here?
Pakistan First
Registered Member
Actually, I never believed this logic. So whats the solution then? keep getting own people killed, own leaders killed, own nuclear sites hit ? Imagine if US choose to destroy our nuclear weapon program. We'd let them hit our facilities and won't go after their ships just to assume that they will stop on their own? I think best option would be to make it extremely costly for them and hit the very CSG from that attack has to happen. There's no other good option. Also I think Iran did / or hit whatever it could. If Iran had capability of hitting US warship successfully then it would have done so. There were reports in past where Iranian missiles & drones were launched towards those but intercepted. Trump also said some 100 missiles were launched towards CSG.
If a country has capability to hit enemy warships at will then by all means I think hitting a warship early in the battle creates deterrence. Yes US would become angry and can do massive attack as retaliation but at same time, it would also know that this war can go extremely costly in terms of human loss and assets. No president wants to be reason for bringing more and more body bags home. If country possess unstoppable, long range anti ship missiles and they hit one of warship that also serves as a warning that we will hit your carrier next time if you keep attacking us. So I think Iran did not had that capability. If it had, then what a waste to invest in a capability that you are never going to use out of "fear". What else red line had to be crossed when US actually destroyed nuclear facilities and killed leaders ? All red lines crossed already.
Also, attacking a warship is not attacking american civilians. Even though america is killing Iranian civilians too. Attacking warship is only defending yourself. Because Iran would be practically attacking soldiers who are killing its people and firing missiles towards it. Choosing not to attack enemy's weapon system deliberately that is actively involved in war means surrender. Which we know Iran won't do. So i think Iran did not spared those warships deliberately. I think Iran tried at times but those ships are very capably in terms of air defense.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
Yes. I agree. Even just a Nasr (C701) could easily be launched against any ship in the South corridor. US knows It and that is why US is pressuring Irán to reach an agreement.
Otherwise even UK and EU would join to this stupid convoy system in SOH. Even France carefully avoided to close to SOH.
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