Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[tower9]

The clash will be between SNA - Turkish backed v SDF - Kurdish up north. HTS will be used and abandoned in a few years time although chances of a clash between HTS and SDF is possible down south. The Usa and Israel want a Kurdish state in Syria, bordering Iraqi Kurdish state, this will be a road to a new country in the future on Turkish borders. Checkmate.

Now that Assad has fallen, the only good thing that can come out of this is if the US supports an independent Kurdistan. Just to say **** You to Erdogan and Turkish scum.

 

[Immortals]

The collapse of the Shiite alliance is proceeding at a frightening pace.
All the brave and capable generals have been assassinated, and all that is left are the incompetent and cowardly generals who have survived by running and hiding.
The U.S. and Israeli assassination campaigns have been remarkably effective.

Not according to the Pro-Propaganda crowd. Everything is awesome!

All our warnings and threats were dismissed and we were labeled as Zionists for not saying the all powerful Iran was crushing Israel who tommorrow would be surely eliminated. Yet those same people are no where to be found right now. Much like the SAA they disappeared when the going got tough.

Even at this juncture, Iran's reformist government is only sending its foreign minister to Iraq for carefree discussions.
I told them that it was dangerous to elect a doctor to the presidency who dreamed of negotiating with the U.S. in such an emergency, but no one listened.

Blaming this [entirely] on reformist government is unwise.

I hate to speak ill of the dead, but 10/7 was a year ago. What was our then FM and President doing besides fake red lines and spooky cryptic threats? Did our FM not tour the Middle East making useless predictions of doom and destruction?

Blaming this on incoming reformists who have been in power all of 2 mins is comical brother. The real power is in hands of Security Council and everyone involved in the decision making the last 5-7 years is to blame.

Let’s not create easy scapegoats by blaming a toothless Pezehkian as the fall of the Iran’s Syria project. This goes all the way to the top and our “strategic patience” policy which alongside “resistance economy” has been a disaster!

If only Khamenei had not eliminated Ahmadinejad, if only he had paid a little more attention to the safety of his supposed successor, Raisi... All regrets are behind us.

Ahmadinejad? The guy who tried to become Erdogan/Assad himself and was banned from Iranian politics? The guy who was President at the time when Iran squandered $100B+ in oil revenues via Babak Zanjani scandal? It’s funny you blame Pezehkian for the Syria file (which he has little control over) and then ignore the massive corruption in Ahmadinejad era.

The guy was Donald Trump before Trump, going in front of a US university and claiming Iran had no homosexuals. A statistical impossibility. Embarrassing our country and making us look like we were uneducated cavemen. He would fit in perfectly in this era, but back then he was seen as a circus show.

The issue is you think one person can fix the system when the system is designed to not rely on one person while at the same concentrating decision making in one person. A paradox. But Even SL himself can be removed if the rest of the system (the political power factions) goes against him a la Julius Ceaser type moment.

As I told you the blame goes all around

-Hamas for conducting 10/7 with no real “end goal” and leading Gaza into Genocide and destruction

-Nasrallah and Iran’s refusal to join the war and settle their issues on the battlefield once and for all. For 45 years they prepared for the day to face Israel on the battlefield and then when the time came….”strategic patience” once again.

-Iran’s poor economic management since 1980’s not building proper and deep trade ties with either Asia or The west left us with a shallow capability to shield from sanctions. Thinking that oil would always be needed because of America’s need for Middle East oil….until fracking came online in late 2000’s and made US the #1 oil producer in the world.

Lack of ToT from foreign investors a la the “Turkey and China growth story” meant many areas of our economy needed foreign assistance for modernization. Thus the ability to build a resistance economy was a joke. Every time I visit Iran it’s the “Chinese junk economy”. This time it was Chinese cars flooding the market place when we have one of the largest car manufacturers in the Middle East.

-Post 2019, Iran became quite complacent and happy with its gains that it made courtesy of George W Bush (Invading Iraq and Afghanistan) and Barack Obama (recognizing Iranian right to enrichment and self-interests in the region). They didn’t want to upset the Apple cart of their gains by doing some rash like direct conflict.

Well it’s like Poker, if you play afraid to lose all the chips you recently won. Then your opponent will eventually sense your mindset. They will take advantage and your judgement will be clouded to respond because all you think about is preserving your gains.

Iran focused so much on preserving their gains and avoiding a risky bet (direct conflict) that it ended up in direct conflict and lost its gains at the same time!

 

[Immortals]

i said rumored 40,000 not 30,000 and didn't Iraqi side was in process of sending them before it become clear SAA as usual don't want to fight.
by the way make your complaint to reuters

Iraqi side merely went to protect their border to prevent a Mosul 2014 again. That is all. Sistani who has the real power in Iraq declare Iraq a neutral party to avoid raising sectarian tensions in a fragile country. The Sunni and Kurdish population in Iraq would not be happy.

Now that Assad has fallen, the only good thing that can come out of this is if the US supports an independent Kurdistan. Just to say **** You to Erdogan and Turkish scum.

Think at least 3 steps ahead before you cheer something like that.

A strong Kurdistan in Syria means an independent Kurdistan in Iraq which means….and independent Kurdistan in Iran. Now think what happens when Turkey and Azerbaijan also close the corridor to Armenia and block Iran access to Armenia and the north?

Now you see what is happening? It’s one huge chess match with Israel and Turkey trying to cement their respective claims. The Turkic crescent project is in full swing. America under Trump might completely disengage from Middle East/ Syria at this point since Iranian influence is waning (whole reason US entered Syria).

Trump will give Gaza and Golan to Israel and his buddy Bibi. Lebanon will face Jihadi’s soon as well, you could have Lebanese army fold just like SAA did. Lebanon itself is divided between Christians, Sunnis, and Shiites who don’t love each other. It had its own civil war back in the 80’s don’t you forget. Its economy is non existent. Its historical French influence is in jeopardy as Macron is on his way out the door.

Either Iran goes for nukes or does the deal with the west and returns back to its borders. The Arabs/Muslims once again backstabbed Iran. But Iran also backstabbed them by not stepping in when the war was ready to be had.

 

[EyelessInGaza]

Let me tell you a story. I have been following this conflict since it’s origination at a CIA color revolution in the Arab Spring, that is 2010-2011.

One time years later I was watching a video on an IRGC general giving an interview. It was not a flashy video nor probably many saw it. He was speaking and he said something quite remarkable. He said back when Damascus was about to fall, when all hope was lost there was a great debate not in Iranian leadership, but the IRGC itself about intervening!

Many of his colleagues he said thought it was a “lost cause” and it was better to negotiate a solution with the playmakers to secure Iran’s interest. He said many didn’t believe they could save Assad. It had never been done before (they were right). He said thankfully those elements didn’t win out within the organization and that leadership sided with those who called for intervention.

Now I ask you, in 2024, are those anti interventionist elements still in IRGC? Of course! And what about the elements that said they must intervene? …..They are dead. Many died in Syria in the last decade to Israeli strikes and the chief architect (Solemani, died in 2020).

The IRGC is now survived by Generals who sit in Tehran and live off nepotism like General Salami, General Bagheri, and the rest. These generals no longer have revolutionary zeal, they are men of talk, not men of war. They live off the fruits of their fallen brothers. And much like Qajar dynasty they will rapidly squander what previous gains their brothers got them.

The IRGC today is not the IRGC of 2010 nor the IRGC of 1985. They are now a quasi economic-political-military institution that has a huge
Interests in self preservation and making money busting sanctions.

Without a decree of Ali Khamenai to come into Syria, I suspect their are political maneuvering being done for a post Assad Syria already once again.

You may be right or wrong, but this is a very interesting and (to me) fresh perspective.

 

[Immortals]

I said it back then a few months after HZ joined the war. The lack of direct Iranian involvement would lead to collapse of the Resistance.


Raised the possibility of Nasrallah assassination and Iran’s response including blaming Pezeshkian!

April 2024 post:

Khamenai is the opposite and in his own way causing immense damage to the Axis of Resistance that Solemani built in an attempt to maintain the status quo. Without Solemani there is no military leader to convince The Supreme Leader to see things differently and change his perspective. The remaining generals are all Yes Men.

Now it’s possible Nasrallah is assassinated (doubt it), but even if he was nothing would change. Iran doesn’t want war and will not attack even if its soil is threatened that much was clear by the symbolic April 2024 attack. Now with Pezeshhkian as President, Rahbar has a scapegoat to blame all the dovish anti conflict behavior on and say it’s all his fault.

Back in March 2024 called out the ploy of Zionist to act like it didn’t want war with HZ and Iran so it could eliminate Hamas first before turning their focue on HZ then Syria, then Iran:

Did I not say this would occur?

When that joke of an Iranian FM sat and conveyed baseless warnings and cryptic bluffs of vague “responses” I realized this alliance wasn’t going to take much action in the days after 10/7.

Israel in the beginning played weak and feable. Saying they don’t want conflict with Hezbollah and Iran and all this pacifism to fool everyone. Indeed they made the Americans step in and warn Iran.

Reality is they wanted to first reduce Hamas so one front got pacified to avoid a multi front conflict. So they played coy and a shrewd Zionist card. They spent their focus in the weeks that followed on dismantling most of Hamas capabilities in defiance of our FMs baseless warnings. THEN now they have increased escalations against HZ and Iran knowing neither party wants war.

Reality is if HZ entered the war more decisively in the beginning alongside Syria/Iraq/Houthis then Israel would have had to contend with a strong Hamas and multiple other fronts. But it seems only Houthi’s really gave a major effect to helping the Hamas, everyone else played a geopolitical game of footsie.

Remains to be seen if this was a Strategic mistake on Iran’s part. They sacrificed Hamas largely for geopolitical theater. Now HZ and Iran will be routinely targeted in Syria with no response.

Strategic deterrence outside of Iranian soil has been lost for years. It is only a matter of time till the enemy concludes it can strike Iranian soil without major response.

Indeed we saw the Americans debating that internally prior to their response for Jordan attack. For now they decided it was off the table, but it is only matter of time (maybe with President Trump) where he will feel he can strike Iranian soil without major retribution just like how he assassinated Solemani and only had some concussive troops and material damage in response.

 

[StrategicBear]

Iran needs leaders as resolute and steadfast as North Korea.

It's frustrating that Muslims regardless of Shiite or Sunni can't have a truly intelligent and visionary leaders at the helm of ultimate decision-making.

Soleimani was a great military commander but alas he wasn't the top political leader in Iran so he can't influence decisions at the very top.

If Soleimani was Iran's Supreme Leader or at least a deputy, he would have made Iran build many nuclear weapons already, secretly build an ICBM, and test it and declare Iran an open nuclear weapons state the moment Israel starts assassinating Hezbollah leaders like swatting flies!

Also act with full bravado and fiery rhetoric like NK, threatening to "turn the entire region into a sea of fire if our nuclear facilities are attacked" would also make US and Israel think twice of going too far.

Against a mad dog like Israel the only correct response is to act even more radical, not more conciliatory like that idiot Pezeshkian Traitor.

 

[vmro]

I don’t know, state of confusion indicates that Iranian and Russian intelligence services are either 4d chess players, or totally outsmarted by mossad mit and cia... if iraq and Syria are unreliable, there is pointless insisting on Axis that is toothless and is wasting Iranian resources...

In that case, some dramatic changes are necessary, implosion to Iranian Plateau as fortresses, and internal development till Iran is ready to come back...

It would not be first time...with finishing with the bomb, that is strategic retreat...in the end, priority of Iran is Iranian integrity and security....

Then priority is to keep Armenia, and Iranian control over weak point of turkish projected Turkistan, because is real possibilities for total turkish encircling of Iran...at least there Russia and Iran could be more active....


Unfortunately, in just few weeks Iran and Turkey totally changed roles of each other....

This doesn't mean that Iran defeated in the middle east forever, whoever comes after will not satisfy general population, Iran is only alternative and once again from implosion to expansion...

I will be happy if all this I wrote is garbage text and unnecessary pessimistic thoughts....

 

[Immortals]

Iran needs leaders as resolute and steadfast as North Korea.

Leaders? North Korea has one leader. If he has a heart attack tommorrow NK descends into chaos. Maybe his sister takes power, but his children are too young.

He routinely kills any general that tries to gain more power than he should (including his own uncle). Killed off his half - brother to make sure the West doesn’t use him as a alternative leader.

NK model has nothing to do with Iran. And NK much like Iran just threatens South Korea all the time, but will never start a war as long as Kim is not in danger. Now with the Russian strategic alliance, Kim feels even more safe.

So I’m not sure why you use NK as a model of strength. NK was never really at risk of being toppled by a ground war even before it had nukes. China wouldn’t never allow it.

Soleimani was a great military commander but alas he wasn't the top political leader in Iran so he can't influence decisions at the very top.

If Soleimani was Iran's Supreme Leader or at least a deputy, he would have made Iran build many nuclear weapons already, secretly build an ICBM, and test it and declare Iran an open nuclear weapons state the moment Israel starts assassinating Hezbollah leaders like swatting flies!

Solemani did have significant influence, he was one of the most powerful influencers of Iranian external foreign policy and directly only communicated with Supreme Leader on decisions, bypassing everyone else. No one will ever have that much power inside IRGC again. One of a kind. A Marcus Aurelius of our time. Iran sorely misses him at times like this.

That being said, no one man has a decision to make the nuclear bomb run, even Khamenai needs buy in from most of the factions of the Republic. Because they have to be united when the West brings its full fury and even be ready for war. So it’s not a decision anyone makes lightly and Khamenai is a man of God and he has historically had religious objections to the concept of nuclear weapons.

The whole point of an Iranian nuclear weapons program was because there was fear in the 90’s that Saddam would test a nuclear weapon by 2000 and it presented an existential threat to Iran since Saddam used chemical weapons on Iran during the imposed war. So iran needed to also of the bomb to assure MAD. Then Saddam was overthrown in 2003 and Iran froze the program and broke it up into research segments for a rainy day.

Now He’s near the end of his life and doesn’t want to answer God why an Iranian bomb was built under his guidance. Even Oppenheimer wished afterwards he didn’t build it. So it’s a strong morality issue for God fearing men. I’m sure if an existential threat arises he will make the right choice, but right now there is no invading Iran anytime soon.

 

[Immortals]

I don’t know, state of confusion indicates that Iranian and Russian intelligence services are either 4d chess players, or totally outsmarted by mossad mit and cia.

If Russia was a 4D chess player they would have figured out how to reach Kyiv by now and taken back their own territory in Kursk.

Don’t forget Russia (Putin) had to be convinced by Solemani to come into the war back in 2015. To see the big picture and the strategic implications. Putin was too naive to see the designs the west had for Russia even after removing a long time client state (Ghaddafi’s Libya). If Syria fell then Russia would lose its only Mediterranean warm water naval base in the region and not have a single client state/ally left in Middle East from Cold War era.

But times have changed Russia is in Ukraine and no longer needs Assad to keep the naval port. Putin can sell Assad up the river and still keep the coast by shielding the Alwaites from genocide. And maybe even use Syria as a bargaining chip for Ukrainian war negotiations.

As for Iran, there is no Solemani and no Nasrallah. The Axis is without its 2 founding military leaders who commanded the most respect among all the players/tribes/ethnicities in the region.

Can’t count Iran completely out. We have bounced back before, but it ain’t looking good at this point.

 

[vmro]

And maybe Hezbollah could be supplied by sea routes, HTS or Kurdistan are preferred by zionists and little hope for cooperation if they succeed... but again, this is eventual worst-case scenario, I hope this will never happen and Iran will preserve its alliance...

I can't figure out how Shias, that were naturally capable to avoid foriegn intelligence service influence, put themselves into this situation...

Iran founded Hezbollah during hardest time of modern era, isolated from access there by Sadam Hussein, and still succeed...

Something here is very, very strange, something just doesn't make any sense and logic...

 

[vmro]

If Russia was a 4D chess player they would have figured out how to reach Kyiv by now and taken back their own territory in Kursk.

Don’t forget Russia (Putin) had to be convinced by Solemani to come into the war back in 2015. To see the big picture and the strategic implications. Putin was too naive to see the designs the west had for Russia even after removing a long time client state (Ghaddafi’s Libya). If Syria fell then Russia would lose its only Mediterranean warm water naval base in the region and not have a single client state/ally left in Middle East from Cold War era.

But times have changed Russia is in Ukraine and no longer needs Assad to keep the naval port. Putin can sell Assad up the river and still keep the coast by shielding the Alwaites from genocide. And maybe even use Syria as a bargaining chip for Ukrainian war negotiations.

As for Iran, there is no Solemani and no Nasrallah. The Axis is without its 2 founding military leaders who commanded the most respect among all the players/tribes/ethnicities in the region.

Can’t count Iran completely out. We have bounced back before, but it ain’t looking good at this point.

One of historical ability of Iran is creating "hero of the moment"... Strong leader that is capable and dedicated to provide right decisions during hardest times... There is network of institutions that are natural bases for this purpose...It's not Iranian nature to depend on irreplaceable personas...

 

[lightning f57]

Maybe this is a good chance for Iran to disengage militarily from the region, IMO building alliances, strengthing the economy and military forces should be the aim. They should prepare the bomb too for contingency incase they need to declare themselves as a nuclear power. Sometimes retreating is the best course of action, avoiding conflict focusing on development can pay dividends later.

The region needs to step up to deal with the zionist threat, ironically its the arabs that will be in trouble as israel tries to expand out.

 

[Mobius]

The future of Syria @Tamerlane @Mobius

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He's spot on. The situation is the region is fragile and Syria needs to pick a superpower to underpin its position in the region. It's called strategy, and is a necessity not an option. Now we have 2 choices....

1) Stay under the umbrella of Christian Orthodox Russia and continue to oppose Israel.
2) Become another enclave of the Zionist west and make the greater Israel Project much easier for them. Also remove Russian from the region so that the Zionists have Zero checks and balances.

Now Allah prohibits us from makes alliances with the Zionists. If we do, we have lost our Islam. If you support the rebels destabilising Syria, you support option 2 and are supporting the Zionist plan.

 

[Mobius]

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[Mobius]

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