No, Pakistan will get them before 2030, but not before 2027.
I'm thinking around 2028-29 for the initial blocks. Probably only a squadron though.
We'll probably see weapons testing in 2026, and final operational clearance of the fighter in 2027.
I used to think not before 2030 as well, but the Chinese seem to doubling down on the fighter and speeding through testing and development.
My projections for some scenarios based on analysis of what is known so far:
2025.
A naval version of the J-35 (WS-21) will appear in CV-18, but it will not go into mass production. It will simply be produced in small batches followed by some adaptive and tactical testing.
The J-35(WS-19) naval version will probably make its first flight on land at some point.
The J-35A (WS-19) will also only undergo tactical testing after small production runs. We may find it at PLAAF's Cangzhou or Dingxin bases.
2026.
The naval version of the J-35 (WS-19) may make its first takeoff and landing at CV-18. If all goes well, after some technical tests and adjustments, this version will go into mass production.
The J-35A (WS-19) will start a pulsed production program.
The export version of the J-35 (WS-21) will officially appear at the Zhuhai Airshow in 2026.
We don't go for substandard or less power version. It would be full on J-35 a stealth fighter jet. China is really very close to full scale production.
1. Any weaponry with information technology systems in PLA active service is not exported in its own version. For example, tanks, warships, fighters, etc. Weapons and equipment without informatization systems may be exported moderately depending on the situation. For example, ammunition, light weapons, etc.
2. When China exports advanced weapon systems, most of them support limited functional customization by customers. The base platform of the export version is fixed and cannot be altered, nor does it support customization. However, they support customers to select their own subsystems from a library of optional subsystems.
PLAAF positions the J-35 as a multirole multi-mission fighter.PLAN positions the J-35 as an air superiority fighter.
Their associated subsystem pairings are based on this positioning as a basic principle.
Which subsystems will PAF ultimately choose? Depends on the PAF's positioning of it. But what is certain is that it can only choose from a pool of subsystems that China can export.
They are not fit to be judged in terms of advanced or backward, they are up to the customer to decide if they are right for them.
About the engine. I can answer you with 100% certainty. there is no possibility of any export of WS-19 before 2030. The chances of it being exported before 2035 are very, very small, infinitely close to 0%. It is not on the list of exportable products now.
If PAF wants to get J-35 before those times, then WS-21 will be the only option.