PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[Yommie]

Unlikely for F16s given PAF has yet to retire the Mirages and they are in an even worse state.

Mirage is phrased out by the similar sized JF-17.

 

[Michael]

@FuturePAF Hey, bro.
This planning of yours is fantasy. It's completely divorced from reality and not implementable in any way.

100 J-10 would be enough to allow the PAF economies of scale

PAF has to get enough money.The total cost of 20 J-10CE is 12.8 billion CNY.After deducting other public expenses,the total cost of 100 J-10CE is close to 60 billion CNY.
By the time PAF raises enough money, it will have lost interest in the J-10CE.

IMO. the PAF does not like the J-10CE. it was forced to procure the J-10CE on an emergency basis because of the IAF's move to buy Rafale fighters, not that it actually likes the J-10CE.

If the PAF has to expand from 20 squadrons to say 24, a further 2 squadrons of J-10s and one each of the J-35 and KAAN could really maintain a well balanced fleet.

I must sadly say that the PAF can only choose between the J-35 and the KAAN. The two of them cannot coexist.

 

[FuturePAF]

@FuturePAF Hey, bro.
This planning of yours is fantasy. It's completely divorced from reality and not implementable in any way.

PAF has to get enough money.The total cost of 20 J-10CE is 12.8 billion CNY.After deducting other public expenses,the total cost of 100 J-10CE is close to 60 billion CNY.
By the time PAF raises enough money, it will have lost interest in the J-10CE.

IMO. the PAF does not like the J-10CE. it was forced to procure the J-10CE on an emergency basis because of the IAF's move to buy Rafale fighters, not that it actually likes the J-10CE.

I must sadly say that the PAF can only choose between the J-35 and the KAAN. The two of them cannot coexist.

The J-10CE may not be liked as much as the J-35 but it’s more affordable. Sure the PAF doesn’t have approx. 60 Billion CNY / $8.22 billion to procure 100 J-10s, at the moment, which is all the more reason it needs to get the economy going again.

There is only so much that can be expected from the JF-17 and PFX, and only so much those planes can shoulder with their smaller size.

When the PAF goes for a fighter type it goes to procure at least 90 to have economies of scale. If it’s procuring another batch of (perhaps) 25 after having procured 25 already, why is it unlikely it would not keep going for another two batches over the next 10 years.

The Egyptians and Bangladeshis are considering the J-10, so it’s possibly that line continues onwards until the mid 2030s.

 

[SABRE]

@FuturePAF
IMO. the PAF does not like the J-10CE. it was forced to procure the J-10CE on an emergency basis because of the IAF's move to buy Rafale fighters, not that it actually likes the J-10CE.
-----
I must sadly say that the PAF can only choose between the J-35 and the KAAN. The two of them cannot coexist.

PAF pilots very much like J-10C, more than the F-16s "they have." In fact, the interest in acquiring J-10 at some stage had been there since Gen. Musharraf era. But as the aircraft - being exported/offered as FC-20 back then - did not satisfy PAF's requirements the procurement was deferred until it reached maturity and equaled or perhaps surpassed the capabilities of PAF's F-16s. J-10C certainly did that. Interest turned to intent perhaps during the several Shaheen series exercises between PAF and PLAAF, and the Indian procurement of Rafale and the Swift Retort hastened PAF's acquisition of both J-10C and PL-15E.

J-35 and KAAN operating together? I can see that. Except that it might not be financially prudent or politically viable if the aircraft relies [too much] on the American technologies. In the latter case, it might, in fact, be improbable. However, I'll not completely write off KAAN at this stage. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Michael]

PAF pilots very much like J-10C, more than the F-16s "they have." In fact, the interest in acquiring J-10 at some stage had been there since Gen. Musharraf era. But as the aircraft - being exported/offered as FC-20 back then - did not satisfy PAF's requirements the procurement was deferred until it reached maturity and equaled or perhaps surpassed the capabilities of PAF's F-16s. J-10C certainly did that. Interest turned to intent perhaps during the several Shaheen series exercises between PAF and PLAAF, and the Indian procurement of Rafale and the Swift Retort hastened PAF's acquisition of both J-10C and PL-15E.

J-35 and KAAN operating together? I can see that. Except that it might not be financially prudent or politically viable if the aircraft relies [too much] on the American technologies. In the latter case, it might, in fact, be improbable. However, I'll not completely write off KAAN at this stage. We'll have to wait and see.

Let's review some public timelines:
2017. the J-10C made its first official appearance in the PLA's 90th anniversary parade. It is a symbol that the PLAAF has been officially inducted.
2019. the J-10CE makes its first public appearance at the Dubai Airshow.
June 25, 2021. China and Pakistan sign the J-10CE procurement contract.
March 11, 2022. the PAF holds a receiving ceremony for the first batch of six J-10CEs.
March 23, 2022: PAF's J-10CEs are officially unveiled at Pakistan's National Day parade.

Based on China-Pakistan relations, PAF knew and visited to inspect the J-10C certainly earlier than 2017. However, PAF did not sign the procurement contract until 2021. China started delivering the first batch of J-10CE 8 months after signing the contract. if India's purchase of Rafale was not a factor, I am sure, this would have been pushed back.

Z-10 helicopter gunships are another case in point. Pakistan might have continued to hesitate for a long time if there were no external factors. The ------Z-21 has already been born.

PAF publicly announced that it would buy the J-35A even before it officially appeared. (Which represents how much he likes it.) ------ But now, that “leaf” has appeared.

 

[princefaisal]

The J-35 is expected to be available by 2026, while the KAAN fighter will follow after 2030, marking a period for the replacement of the F-16s MLU.

 

[SABRE]

Let's review some public timelines:
2017. the J-10C made its first official appearance in the PLA's 90th anniversary parade. It is a symbol that the PLAAF has been officially inducted.
2019. the J-10CE makes its first public appearance at the Dubai Airshow.
June 25, 2021. China and Pakistan sign the J-10CE procurement contract.
March 11, 2022. the PAF holds a receiving ceremony for the first batch of six J-10CEs.
March 23, 2022: PAF's J-10CEs are officially unveiled at Pakistan's National Day parade.

Based on China-Pakistan relations, PAF knew and visited to inspect the J-10C certainly earlier than 2017. However, PAF did not sign the procurement contract until 2021. China started delivering the first batch of J-10CE 8 months after signing the contract. if India's purchase of Rafale was not a factor, I am sure, this would have been pushed back.

Z-10 helicopter gunships are another case in point. Pakistan might have continued to hesitate for a long time if there were no external factors. The ------Z-21 has already been born.

PAF publicly announced that it would buy the J-35A even before it officially appeared. (Which represents how much he likes it.) ------ But now, that “leaf” has appeared.

I believe PAF knew of the progress on J-10C earlier than 2017. But up until 2016 it was hoping to get more F-16s. That plan faltered because the US Congress refused to subsidize the aircraft or provide funds for it. Somehow they were hoping to still get the aircraft but by 2020-2021 it was clear that F-16s were not coming. I am unsure on what was happening simultaneously on J-10C acquisition in between - whether it was planned to be acquired alongside F-16s or foregone if the F-16 sales was approved - but once it was clear that F-16s would not be coming and India's acquisition of Rafale came near it made all the sense to go for J-10C. Needless to say, J-10C is far superior to what PAF has ever had. Possibly as good as latest F-16s if not more.

J-35 (J-31) had been on cards for a very long time. PAF was only waiting for the aircraft to mature and be made available for exports. From little that I recall, PAF had in fact communicated its interest in "5th gen stealth fighter" to China as soon as they were revealed back in 2012-2013.

 

[Michael Corleone]

I usually don’t come to foreign military discussions, I only look into Bangladesh part of this website but really i had to come and say this,

This camo is the best fighter jet camo I’ve come across, RAF has something similar in their vintage fighters but really this looks amazing

 

[Yasser76]

I believe PAF knew of the progress on J-10C earlier than 2017. But up until 2016 it was hoping to get more F-16s. That plan faltered because the US Congress refused to subsidize the aircraft or provide funds for it. Somehow they were hoping to still get the aircraft but by 2020-2021 it was clear that F-16s were not coming. I am unsure on what was happening simultaneously on J-10C acquisition in between - whether it was planned to be acquired alongside F-16s or foregone if the F-16 sales was approved - but once it was clear that F-16s would not be coming and India's acquisition of Rafale came near it made all the sense to go for J-10C. Needless to say, J-10C is far superior to what PAF has ever had. Possibly as good as latest F-16s if not more.

J-35 (J-31) had been on cards for a very long time. PAF was only waiting for the aircraft to mature and be made available for exports. From little that I recall, PAF had in fact communicated its interest in "5th gen stealth fighter" to China as soon as they were revealed back in 2012-2013.

Yeah, I suspect if PAF got F-16V we may have skipped J-10C and gone straight to J-35

 

[Quwa]

Generally the PAF doesn't induct a new fighter platform unless it plans for at least 80-90 units of that type.

Besides aircraft given to it on US aid (F-104, B-57), which the PAF would've gotten more of if not for the 1965 War, every type it had bought had a long-term buy plan: Mirage III/5, F-6, F-7, F-16, and JF-17.

The J-10CE is no different, nor would the J-35 be any different.

 

[SABRE]

Yeah, I suspect if PAF got F-16V we may have skipped J-10C and gone straight to J-35

I agree. But, we also need to consider if AIM-120D would have been made available.

 

[Quwa]

I believe PAF knew of the progress on J-10C earlier than 2017. But up until 2016 it was hoping to get more F-16s. That plan faltered because the US Congress refused to subsidize the aircraft or provide funds for it. Somehow they were hoping to still get the aircraft but by 2020-2021 it was clear that F-16s were not coming. I am unsure on what was happening simultaneously on J-10C acquisition in between - whether it was planned to be acquired alongside F-16s or foregone if the F-16 sales was approved - but once it was clear that F-16s would not be coming and India's acquisition of Rafale came near it made all the sense to go for J-10C. Needless to say, J-10C is far superior to what PAF has ever had. Possibly as good as latest F-16s if not more.

J-35 (J-31) had been on cards for a very long time. PAF was only waiting for the aircraft to mature and be made available for exports. From little that I recall, PAF had in fact communicated its interest in "5th gen stealth fighter" to China as soon as they were revealed back in 2012-2013.

The fact that the PAF committed to the J-10CE should also give a clear indication of how far the timeline is for the J-35A. If the PAF knew that it could get the J-35A as early as 2026, then it would not have ordered J-10CEs.

 

[SABRE]

The fact that the PAF committed to the J-10CE should also give a clear indication of how far the timeline is for the J-35A. If the PAF knew that it could get the J-35A as early as 2026, then it would not have ordered J-10CEs.

Just my opinion, but I think they would still have acquired it, if for nothing else then as a stop gap to counter Rafale. Events of 2019 would have been another motivation. PAF also could not realistically expect all 40 J-35A to be delivered and/or operationalized in 2026 (I'll be surprised but also ecstatic if that happens). That's a gaping hole of four years or more in Pakistan's airpower against Modi's increasingly belligerent and Hindutvatized India equipped with Rafale that it sees as a "demigod." Also consider that PAF is believed to be acquiring more J-10Cs despite orders for J-35A.

 

[SiliconBit (silicon0000)]

Let's review some public timelines:
2017. the J-10C made its first official appearance in the PLA's 90th anniversary parade. It is a symbol that the PLAAF has been officially inducted.
2019. the J-10CE makes its first public appearance at the Dubai Airshow.
June 25, 2021. China and Pakistan sign the J-10CE procurement contract.
March 11, 2022. the PAF holds a receiving ceremony for the first batch of six J-10CEs.
March 23, 2022: PAF's J-10CEs are officially unveiled at Pakistan's National Day parade.

Based on China-Pakistan relations, PAF knew and visited to inspect the J-10C certainly earlier than 2017. However, PAF did not sign the procurement contract until 2021. China started delivering the first batch of J-10CE 8 months after signing the contract. if India's purchase of Rafale was not a factor, I am sure, this would have been pushed back.

Z-10 helicopter gunships are another case in point. Pakistan might have continued to hesitate for a long time if there were no external factors. The ------Z-21 has already been born.

PAF publicly announced that it would buy the J-35A even before it officially appeared. (Which represents how much he likes it.) ------ But now, that “leaf” has appeared.

Dear now you are provoking people to go in wrong direction (in your last line) ........

 

[Yommie]

Yeah, I suspect if PAF got F-16V we may have skipped J-10C and gone straight to J-35

The US would never sell F-16V to Pakistan.