Joe Shearer
Professional
None, as far as I know. Trust your instincts.
The deletion of your thread? No idea.
The deletion of this thread? There has to be a reason.
Bangladesh Economy
- Thread starter RΛIDEN
- Start date
The deletion of this thread? There has to be a reason.
Nilgiri
INT'L MOD
@LeonBlack08 @AbuShalehRumi @Bengal71 @Arthur @Alter_Ego this maybe more closer to truth if not entirely accurate.
Investment research estimates Bangladesh's FY24 GDP at $300b, not $459b
The homegrown investment bank came up with this estimation by comparing economic output in the region against electricity consumption, according to its “Macro Economic Outlook 2025” report
Summary:
- Bangladesh's GDP for FY 2023-24 estimated at $300 billion.
- Electricity consumption suggests overstated GDP by the previous government.
- Report doubts economic outlier status without strong service or production sectors.
- Recalibrated GDP could raise debt-to-GDP ratio from 36% to 55%.
The actual size of Bangladesh's GDP for the fiscal 2023-24 has been estimated at around $300 billion by City Bank Capital Resources, significantly lower than the previous government's overstated figure of $459 billion.
The homegrown investment bank came up with this estimation by comparing economic output in the region against electricity consumption, according to its "Macro Economic Outlook 2025" report.
Citing the Bangladesh Power Development Board, City analysts said the country consumed only 96 million megawatts of electricity in the last fiscal year ending in June, which is much lower than the regional benchmarks.
They doubted the GDP figure, questioning how Bangladesh's economy could have an outlier edge for an astonishing 50-60% higher economic output than India, Pakistan, or China per unit of electricity consumption.
"Bangladesh's GDP figures need recalibration," the report stated.
There has been suspicion that the ousted Sheikh Hasina government overstated economic figures, including exports and GDP, according to Md Abdullah Al Faisal, City's first assistant vice president for corporate advisory and research.
"We found no reason to give Bangladesh the benefit of the doubt, as neither its service sector nor high-value production contribute exceptionally to its GDP," he said.
He added that a country's service sector and high-value production typically help generate a comparatively higher economic output, which is not the case for Bangladesh.
Citing slower growth projections for this fiscal year – 4% by the World Bank and 5.1% by the Asian Development Bank – City expressed concern that Bangladesh could fall into a middle-income trap due to structural economic challenges.
The report highlights the burden of legacy government debt and contractionary fiscal and monetary policies, which have further constrained economic growth.
Underfunded social safety nets and weak institutional frameworks also worsened vulnerabilities. It advises that pushing for least developed country graduation at this stage could limit access to critical concessional financing and trade preferences, recommending that Bangladesh reconsider this path until it achieves more stable and sustainable growth.
City Bank Capital noted that the reported 36.43% total debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 55% with the recalibration of GDP figures, as the external debt level could surge from 15% to 28%.
Investment research estimates Bangladesh's FY24 GDP at $300b, not $459b
The homegrown investment bank came up with this estimation by comparing economic output in the region against electricity consumption, according to its “Macro Economic Outlook 2025” reportwww.tbsnews.net
Remember, Economic white paper committee members previously indicated per Capita GDP may drop by $500. Which already means, total GDP would be around 385 billions. Putting per Capita GDP at 2200 assuming we have a population of 173/75 millions. Which is another bullshit by BAL. We very well know that, the actual population is around 190 millions. Maybe as high as 200 millions. Now you can do the math on GDP per Capita. Imagine some people having the delusion that we were actually doing much better than Pakistan, lol.
AL growth myth: Now per capita income may drop by $500
Both GDP size and growth rate were overstated which also inflated per capita income figures
It will be complicated picture for Mr. Bhattacharya team to unpack in time they have.
But in interim we can look at some of the bounds (objectively vetted from outside as far as possible, i.e there is record keeping on foreign countrty end with finance flows regd trade, investment, loans and so on) for reference regional countries. This was how that EPB discrepancy was picked up in the end (i.e the world' combined record at the WB/IMF database w.r.t BD was short by however much it was).
Some of these serve as denominators of comparison for other related parts and to the final GDP estimate "likeliest" bounds (GDP and output then bounds the % splits within it for govt revenue, internal capital formation, private consumption and so on) and then see later what IG/Yunus may officially make mainstream however that shapes up:
Total export (World bank 2023):
BD: 58 billion USD
PAK: 35 billion USD
IND: 780 billion USD
Total Import (WB 2023):
BD: 78 billion USD
PAK: 61 billion USD
IND: 860 billion USD
Current account balance (past just export and import of goods and services but also export and import from nationals abroad and foreign nationals locally i.e net remittance).
(WB 2022, worst depletion for the region making most of the ongoing problems BoP and BoT wise for the region, BD and PAK tracked each other closely compared to India, esp considering forex reserves at hand):
BD: minus 18.6 billion USD
PAK: minus 17.5 billion USD
IND: minus 67 billion USD
Forex reserve (most recent available):
BD: 20 billion USD
PAK: 16 billion USD
IND: 655 billion USD
Energy consumption per capita (since these are heavy capital + import current tracked by primary energy flows and are very relevant macro base input to final production).
(US EIA, 2023):
BD: 2900 kWh
PAK: 4200 kWh
IND: 7100 kWh
Electricity consumption per capita (a % of the former reliant on further capital and end use vetting).
(US EIA 2021):
BD: 460 kWh
PAK: 570 kWh
IND: 1025 kWh
Market capitalisation (transaction volumes, referenced by net FPI, net bond inflow and so on regd the capital account or equity when it comes to FDI.... the other side of the BoP compared to current account mentioned earlier).
(CEIC latest)
BD: 34 billion USD
PAK: 46 billion USD
IND: 5.3 trillion USD
FDI stock (internal, external, UNCTAD 2022):
BD: 21 billion USD, 0.4 billion USD
PAK: 32 billion USD, 2.8 billion USD
IND: 511 billion USD, 223 billion USD
net FPI flows are very insignificant for BD and PAK compared to India as result of these market cap and equity sizes.
Foreign debt:
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
datatopics.worldbank.org
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
datatopics.worldbank.org
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
datatopics.worldbank.org
Basically Pakistan's doubled from 2013-2023 (straining its BoP severely all through this period)...given its (low) forex stock level and growth rate.
BD's tripled from 2013-2023 with most of this taking place in the last 5 years or so (so straining it in this period especially after covid) given its forex stock level and growth rate (used to be decent, then it stalled and declined).
This is root of issue for the two countries relative to India which has its forex level where it is vs foreign debt, both growing more in line with each other to current point of time (and coming under some strain now, of much less intensity overall to the other two).
Some of what Mr. Bhattacharya has said:
What exactly were global institutions overseeing? - Debapriya Bhattacharya | CPD
Noted economist Debapriya Bhattacharya raised concerns about the role of global institutions, indicating the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), in assessing Bangladesh's debt sustainability under the previous regime as the country faces increasing pressure from escalating...
cpd.org.bd
Reforms a big dream, elections has to held, people’s ease is priority: Debapriya Bhattacharya
This noted economist made the remarks while speaking at a national dialogue on “Unity in Which Way”, at the Krishibid Institution of Bangladesh in the capital’s Farmgate area today
en.prothomalo.com
Another economist's commentary on the white paper:
The good, the bad and the missing
About 400 pages long report by a panel of eminent economists, led by Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, was submitted on November 30 after about four months of deliberations. It contains 23 chapters, placed under five (5) broad themes - macroeconomy, structural, social, institutional, and reforms & polici
This is for my future reference later in 2025 to compare and contrast things at that point as anything new surfaces.
I'm sticking as far as possible to what can be objectively tracked from outside BD, i.e BD footprint on rest of world as the world can measure it....and this has always set the bounds for where it likely stands with reference to GDP's in the larger world.... compared to say its own GDP estimates and politics imbued into that (this happens in a lot of countries in the end). This will have to be a long term process of reform the new team will have to set right in BD institutions like BBS, given the debt, investment confidence problems and so on in a capital deficit country of its own particular intensity and context (like rest of region and developing world)
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It will be complicated picture for Mr. Bhattacharya team to unpack in time they have.
But in interim we can look at some of the bounds (objectively vetted from outside as far as possible, i.e there is record keeping on foreign countrty end with finance flows regd trade, investment, loans and so on) for reference regional countries. This was how that EPB discrepancy was picked up in the end (i.e the world' combined record at the WB/IMF database w.r.t BD was short by however much it was).
Some of these serve as denominators of comparison for other related parts and to the final GDP estimate "likeliest" bounds (GDP and output then bounds the % splits within it for govt revenue, internal capital formation, private consumption and so on) and then see later what IG/Yunus may officially make mainstream however that shapes up:
Total export (World bank 2023):
BD: 58 billion USD
PAK: 35 billion USD
IND: 780 billion USD
Total Import (WB 2023):
BD: 78 billion USD
PAK: 61 billion USD
IND: 860 billion USD
Current account balance (past just export and import of goods and services but also export and import from nationals abroad and foreign nationals locally i.e net remittance).
(WB 2022, worst depletion for the region making most of the ongoing problems BoP and BoT wise for the region, BD and PAK tracked each other closely compared to India, esp considering forex reserves at hand):
BD: minus 18.6 billion USD
PAK: minus 17.5 billion USD
IND: minus 67 billion USD
Forex reserve (most recent available):
BD: 20 billion USD
PAK: 16 billion USD
IND: 655 billion USD
Energy consumption per capita (since these are heavy capital + import current tracked by primary energy flows and are very relevant macro base input to final production).
(US EIA, 2023):
BD: 2900 kWh
PAK: 4200 kWh
IND: 7100 kWh
Electricity consumption per capita (a % of the former reliant on further capital and end use vetting).
(US EIA 2021):
BD: 460 kWh
PAK: 570 kWh
IND: 1025 kWh
Market capitalisation (transaction volumes, referenced by net FPI, net bond inflow and so on regd the capital account or equity when it comes to FDI.... the other side of the BoP compared to current account mentioned earlier).
(CEIC latest)
BD: 34 billion USD
PAK: 46 billion USD
IND: 5.3 trillion USD
FDI stock (internal, external, UNCTAD 2022):
BD: 21 billion USD, 0.4 billion USD
PAK: 32 billion USD, 2.8 billion USD
IND: 511 billion USD, 223 billion USD
net FPI flows are very insignificant for BD and PAK compared to India as result of these market cap and equity sizes.
Foreign debt:
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
IDS Online Tables_Analytical
Basically Pakistan's doubled from 2013-2023 (straining its BoP severely all through this period)...given its (low) forex stock level and growth rate.
BD's tripled from 2013-2023 with most of this taking place in the last 5 years or so (so straining it in this period especially after covid) given its forex stock level and growth rate (used to be decent, then it stalled and declined).
This is root of issue for the two countries relative to India which has its forex level where it is vs foreign debt, both growing more in line with each other to current point of time (and coming under some strain now, of much less intensity overall to the other two).
Some of what Mr. Bhattacharya has said:
What exactly were global institutions overseeing? - Debapriya Bhattacharya | CPD
Noted economist Debapriya Bhattacharya raised concerns about the role of global institutions, indicating the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), in assessing Bangladesh's debt sustainability under the previous regime as the country faces increasing pressure from escalating...Reforms a big dream, elections has to held, people’s ease is priority: Debapriya Bhattacharya
This noted economist made the remarks while speaking at a national dialogue on “Unity in Which Way”, at the Krishibid Institution of Bangladesh in the capital’s Farmgate area today
Another economist's commentary on the white paper:
The good, the bad and the missing
About 400 pages long report by a panel of eminent economists, led by Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, was submitted on November 30 after about four months of deliberations. It contains 23 chapters, placed under five (5) broad themes - macroeconomy, structural, social, institutional, and reforms & policithefinancialexpress.com.bd
This is for my future reference later in 2025 to compare and contrast things at that point as anything new surfaces.
I'm sticking as far as possible to what can be objectively tracked from outside BD, i.e BD footprint on rest of world as the world can measure it....and this has always set the bounds for where it likely stands with reference to GDP's in the larger world.... compared to say its own GDP estimates and politics imbued into that (this happens in a lot of countries in the end). This will have to be a long term process of reform the new team will have to set right in BD institutions like BBS, given the debt, investment confidence problems and so on in a capital deficit country of its own particular intensity and context (like rest of region and developing world)
Well written. Personally I am just happy that finally we will get the honest numbers and people in higher up has the Goodwill to bring reform. How much they can do? Onnly time can tell. But both of those neccessary preconditions were lacking before.
What was predictable is that BNP seems to be going along with IG's reforms only to save face and not loose popularity. They say in public they want reforms but then create hurdle and very uncooperative behind the scene. Sometime I get suspicious that they want as little reform as possible and only want to replace BAL in existing set up.
However, one thing is for sure, July revolution is unlike anything before. And the new generation that didn't get to vote in last 17 years is surprisingly very much politically literate. After paying the cost of overthrowing the BAL regime in thousand lives, no one is afraid anymore.
It is a new Bangladesh in the sense that good old BD politics is over. BNP won't simply succeed if it wants to become another BAL. If they think they will keep doing politics in old way, they are gonna have a very hard time running the government from early on. I can gerautnee that.
IMO, the most important thing to keep in mind is that we won't settle for lesser bad option. BNP may not be able to rig elections and steal thousands of crore blatantly, but if they keep the street level corruption and incompetence, it won't work. See, if it was some sort of political coup then we would happily settled for a lesser bad alternative, but after paying that much in lood and lives for a second liberation, young pople ain't gonna settle for 30%
-50% better results. They want 80%-100%.
Even my family is BNP leaning, I never thought I would have to fight political battle with them.
Yet here I am, constantly debating with my father.
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SoulSpokesman
Trusted Member
@BananaRepublic
Kola bhai,
There must be some outlets out there - but that would be like trying to find needle in a haystack!
You can try the following
Quint, Scroll, Newsclick, The Hindu (dont get intimidated by the name!), Mainstreamweekly, Economic and Political Weekly, Caravan, Countercurrents, MilliGazette, Kafila, National Herald, The Telegraph etc. Some of them are paid sites though. Haq's Musings as and when they deal with India related topics.
I read many of them- although more for entertainment than education. But I am sure you and even more our other Pak/BD brethren here will find these publications very enlightening and truthful.
Regards
Kola bhai,
There must be some outlets out there - but that would be like trying to find needle in a haystack!
You can try the following
Quint, Scroll, Newsclick, The Hindu (dont get intimidated by the name!), Mainstreamweekly, Economic and Political Weekly, Caravan, Countercurrents, MilliGazette, Kafila, National Herald, The Telegraph etc. Some of them are paid sites though. Haq's Musings as and when they deal with India related topics.
I read many of them- although more for entertainment than education. But I am sure you and even more our other Pak/BD brethren here will find these publications very enlightening and truthful.
Regards
Joe Shearer
Professional
On a serious note (speaking about @SoulSpokesman and his posts, it is always a good idea to make that distinction), he is right, and my brushing aside all Indian media as rotten is too indiscriminate.
My favourite, The Hindu, that I admired most for its editorial slant, along with NDTV, kidnapped and raped by our favourite crony capitalist, has drastically compromised its editorial stand after Malini Parthasarathy took over on the strength of a family settlement from the Marxist N. Ram, but its news content is as robustly truthful and unbiased as before. Ram, it might be pointed out, didn't let his politics creep into the editorial content.
Joe Shearer
Professional
I knew it!
I KNEW IT!!
That militaristic streak now stands exposed. No wonder he was good at military strategy and planning.
BananaRepublic
Trusted Member
I used to quite enjoy reading the local southern newspapers whilst being ferried from office to office lol
But once upon a time I used to respect India Today as much as I still respect the Economist.
Joe Shearer
Professional
The Economist is terrible reading, and it is a terrible fascination reading it. Its articles are always well-researched, its language is crisp and clear, but what it preaches is naked Anglo-Saxon capitalism. A liberal, to which vanishing and despised tribe I belong, can read it with pleasure at the quality of its presentation, while shaking his head at the bland dismissal of poverty, of removal of artificial barriers to individual development, of a state withdrawing into a gated community of millionaires.
I quite understand your pleasure in reading it.
The Hindu was once an honoured and respected member of the Mount Road trio. It was/is a thoroughly Iyengar ownership (the name Malathi Parthasarathy is a dead give-away), and made no bones about it, and brought to its task that typical unconscious adherence to the highest standards of integrity that is a hallmark of that section. //I hope Nilgiri doesn't stumble across this post. If he does, I am toast. In such a case, no flowers please; just a small donation to Blue Cross//
You are right in pointing to south Indian publications as being superior. Though minnows in the ocean of which The Hindu is a cetacean, the Deccan Herald, of which my beloved aunt by marriage was once Deputy Editor, and the Deccan Chronicle, part of our daily reading, not to mention Malayalam Manorama, are still keen to maintain standards. That they sometimes falter is the greatest witness to their untiring spirit.
I hate Aroon Purie for his plastic-bottomed lack of integrity, and his nasty manipulation not only of the news but also of his employees. I have no animus against his daughter, who currently runs the publication founded by her grandfather, but there is nothing to show for the change of generations. Not yet.
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Joe Shearer
Professional
অবাক হৈলা কেন?
Why the surprise?
Why the surprise?
Nilgiri
INT'L MOD
Well written. Personally I am just happy that finally we will get the honest numbers and people in higher up has the Goodwill to bring reform. How much they can do? Onnly time can tell. But both of those neccessary preconditions were lacking before.
What was predictable is that BNP seems to be going along with IG's reforms only to save face and not loose popularity. They say in public they want reforms but then create hurdle and very uncooperative behind the scene. Sometime I get suspicious that they want as little reform as possible and only want to replace BAL in existing set up.
However, one thing is for sure, July revolution is unlike anything before. And the new generation that didn't get to vote in last 17 years is surprisingly very much politically literate. After paying the cost of overthrowing the BAL regime in thousand lives, no one is afraid anymore.
It is a new Bangladesh in the sense that good old BD politics is over. BNP won't simply succeed if it wants to become another BAL. If they think they will keep doing politics in old way, they are gonna have a very hard time running the government from early on. I can gerautnee that.
IMO, the most important thing to keep in mind is that we won't settle for lesser bad option. BNP may not be able to rig elections and steal thousands of crore blatantly, but if they keep the street level corruption and incompetence, it won't work. See, if it was some sort of political coup then we would happily settled for a lesser bad alternative, but after paying that much in lood and lives for a second liberation, young pople ain't gonna settle for 30%
-50% better results. They want 80%-100%.
Even my family is BNP leaning, I never thought I would have to fight political battle with them.Yet here I am, constantly debating with my father.
Yes my best closest BD friend (secular Muslim type) in real life has family that is BNP aligned and had fair tough love criticism of India....and was pro-Mujib, BD nationalism and all that (his dad, who had a minister role under the last BNP tenure, was a freedom fighter). We have mutual BD Hindu friend (and his family)...so I have been close to BD sociopolitics and culture that way for 20+ years since I have known them as before that I didnt have any BD friends (where I grew up in Singapore and HK....my first non-Indian desi friends were Pakistani and Sri Lankan).
This was up till the unfairness SHW displayed in continuing her tenure by vote rigging and coming to a head over such trivial matter she could have dispersed with if she thought calmly about bigger picture (she has been unable to do this for a long time).
This is why I have said ideally BD needs to leave behind the 20th century political parties (that have axes to grind and retributions and redemptions to have, however unfair they are set in their head)..... and reform everything into say new left-centre, centre and right-centre parties/coalitions (with all being as secular as possible, as there is already too much social-conservatism in the bodypublik that will shape/influence things anyway without authority favouritism top down).... with the best constituents at hand within the existing parties (or quality outside politics that wants to enter to help now etc) and then get to work on low hanging fruit first.
I have suggested same in various ways for Indian context (down to individual states or localised areas), but the issue is people largely have other ideas and are often set in their ways and fork over an undue amount to existing political groupings (trust devil you know than the one you dont or have developed whichever long term animus against).... made worse by various typical desi mindframe and machinations.
A huge amount of things are squandered this way, as people ultimately dont spent enough time investing well (both individually and collectively...i.e human capital, social capital development and the basics that must be first delivered + actualised here to set example and good transmissive flow and effect....the larger more advanced physical capital merely auto-attaches + sustains to this once you do it) which is really the only way out of the whole mess.
This is the larger deeper thing I mean by "capital deficit" countries.
ronaldo
Registered Member
You certainly seem to have a deep understanding of both Bangladesh's and India's socio-political landscapes, and I respect the time and thought you've put into reflecting on these issues. However, I would suggest that you focus your comments and energy more on India, which is currently ruled by a far-right-wing government. This government rose to power on a platform that included the destruction of the 500-year-old Babri Masjid, and now they continue their divisive agenda by attacking mosques and churches, lynching Muslims for allegedly eating beef, silencing opposition by shutting down internet in Kashmir and rigging elections to maintain their power.
Your insights on India—especially regarding the challenges with political parties, the need for reform, and the importance of human and social capital—are incredibly relevant and timely. The issues you raise are some of the same struggles India is facing today, and with your deep perspective on these matters, it seems your energy would be better channeled into fostering meaningful change and discourse within India, rather than continuing to engage in critiques of Bangladesh’s internal politics.
If you are truly invested in improving the political and social fabric of the subcontinent, perhaps it would be more productive to focus your attention on shaping India’s future political discourse. Given the situation in India, the need for secular alternatives like Congress (or even new coalitions) is more urgent than ever. This is where your efforts can have a real impact: by guiding people towards progressive, inclusive, and secular alternatives in Indian politics, you could help shift the direction of the country away from the deepening divisions and authoritarianism that threaten its democratic fabric.
Ultimately, both India and Bangladesh face immense challenges, but in my view, it’s more crucial right now to focus on India, ensuring you don't fall further into a cycle of extremism and intolerance.
Your insights on India—especially regarding the challenges with political parties, the need for reform, and the importance of human and social capital—are incredibly relevant and timely. The issues you raise are some of the same struggles India is facing today, and with your deep perspective on these matters, it seems your energy would be better channeled into fostering meaningful change and discourse within India, rather than continuing to engage in critiques of Bangladesh’s internal politics.
If you are truly invested in improving the political and social fabric of the subcontinent, perhaps it would be more productive to focus your attention on shaping India’s future political discourse. Given the situation in India, the need for secular alternatives like Congress (or even new coalitions) is more urgent than ever. This is where your efforts can have a real impact: by guiding people towards progressive, inclusive, and secular alternatives in Indian politics, you could help shift the direction of the country away from the deepening divisions and authoritarianism that threaten its democratic fabric.
Ultimately, both India and Bangladesh face immense challenges, but in my view, it’s more crucial right now to focus on India, ensuring you don't fall further into a cycle of extremism and intolerance.
Joe Shearer
Professional
Relax, his post was not intended to divert attention from our own difficult state. It arose out of genuine concern.
Circadian Rhythm
Banned
Bangladesh announces days of countrywide gas supply halt again
Bangladesh announces days of countrywide gas supply halt again - People's Daily Online
DHAKA, Jan. 9 (Xinhua) -- State-owned Petrobangla (Bangladesh Oil, Gas and Mineral Corporation) has
en.people.cn
Sharma Ji
Elite Member
One shouldn't paint with too broad a brush.
There is no doubt a deeply Hindu nationalist core to the RSS etc but not everyone in the rough orbit should be lumped in there.
The truth is, on the ground, they have a reasonably vast and diverse coalition of voters who are not commie-bots, and their motivations for pulling the lever for them vary greatly.
Joe Shearer
Professional
Why not?
Ah, quite so.
Mera kutta, kutta, tera kutta, Tommy.
I was wondering where I had mislaid my broad brush.
This thread is about the Bangladesh economy. I am deleting our out-of-topic conversation within a conversation.
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