PAF F-16 | Discussions

[Quwa]

I disagree.

Vendors will always choose the bigger fry. It looks bad for the company. The entire reason Lockheed renamed the F-16 to the F-21 for India is to distance themselves from Pakistan.

This is the same reason saab on the record said they would halt any new contracts with Pakistan for the sake of pursuing India.

Lockheed knows, any sale to Pakistan has the potential to throw off much bigger Indian deals for good. A few hundred million dollar contract with Pakistan is not worth the bigger impact it will face in India.

It's not just the company that makes the call tho, US foreign policy is the decisive factor.

Right now, the US prefers getting that big-ticket deal from India because (1) it reinforces the alliance against China and (2) it will make LM et.al much more money than Pakistan.

However, if the US has an interest in engaging the PAF, they can make stuff happen in other ways. This is where Turkiye buying up used C/Ds and re-selling them to the PAF could be a thing, for example.

Or, alternatively, it can softly encourage others to sell to the PAF. We just had Airbus DS show up at IDEAS 2024. Airbus DS' portfolio is what... Typhoon, C295, A400M, and A330 MRTT. India has one of those, and of the other 3, the PAF could plausibly only get one (A330 MRTT), unless... There's a greenlight to market the Typhoon to the PAF.

The issue, I feel, is that the US might have just a tad underestimated the pace of China's aviation and aerospace advances.

Now, the PAF can apparently get the J-35, a new high-tech platform, i.e., an area that the US and Europe previously had exclusive domain over, at least commercially speaking.

IMO, it's possible that the US wasn't considering this to even be an option for the PAF until 2030 or so, but the PAF could have its very first of these new jets by then.

Hence, I think market dynamics may have tilted a little in favour of the PAF. And for the US, the F-16s were a foreign policy tool to keep Pakistan's hawks in line. But if the J-35 and, especially, a new UCAV come, those bets are off.

And when those hawks feel free, then it'd only be a matter of time before Pakistan could possibly destabilize India's situation again. History is full of proof for this: 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s especially.

 

[FuturePAF]

It's not just the company that makes the call tho, US foreign policy is the decisive factor.

Right now, the US prefers getting that big-ticket deal from India because (1) it reinforces the alliance against China and (2) it will make LM et.al much more money than Pakistan.

However, if the US has an interest in engaging the PAF, they can make stuff happen in other ways. This is where Turkiye buying up used C/Ds and re-selling them to the PAF could be a thing, for example.

Or, alternatively, it can softly encourage others to sell to the PAF. We just had Airbus DS show up at IDEAS 2024. Airbus DS' portfolio is what... Typhoon, C295, A400M, and A330 MRTT. India has one of those, and of the other 3, the PAF could plausibly only get one (A330 MRTT), unless... There's a greenlight to market the Typhoon to the PAF.

The issue, I feel, is that the US might have just a tad underestimated the pace of China's aviation and aerospace advances.

Now, the PAF can apparently get the J-35, a new high-tech platform, i.e., an area that the US and Europe previously had exclusive domain over, at least commercially speaking.

IMO, it's possible that the US wasn't considering this to even be an option for the PAF until 2030 or so, but the PAF could have its very first of these new jets by then.

Hence, I think market dynamics may have tilted a little in favour of the PAF. And for the US, the F-16s were a foreign policy tool to keep Pakistan's hawks in line. But if the J-35 and, especially, a new UCAV come, those bets are off.

And when those hawks feel free, then it'd only be a matter of time before Pakistan could possibly destabilize India's situation again. History is full of proof for this: 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s especially.

Here is an interesting document about excess defense articles, which the Pakistani government should seriously seek to use to purchase equipment ASAP, because you never know if Pakistan will lose MNNA status soon. Purchase out of their own pockets, showing good will, and then hoping it could unlock authorization to purchase used F-16s.

https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/EDA%20Database%20-%201993%20to%202023.pdf

For example, Egypt bought 350 R33L MRAPs originally valued around $161 million, for only a little over $16 million. It’s one of the first items on the first page. C-130H look to be going for about $12 million. Patrol boats also seem to be a frequent and well priced item on the list alongside radar scatting camo nets. 2 SH-60F went for $9.35 million total. 320 of the RG-33 (6x6) for $17.36 million. 7 Armored mobile guard tower for only $17,550.40 . Artillery finding radars at rock bottom prices as well. Even 45 MAT-V for only $7.77 million.

The Excess Defense articles program is more valuable, IMHO, than the CSF funds.

 

[Bratva]

I disagree.

Vendors will always choose the bigger fry. It looks bad for the company. The entire reason Lockheed renamed the F-16 to the F-21 for India is to distance themselves from Pakistan.

This is the same reason saab on the record said they would halt any new contracts with Pakistan for the sake of pursuing India.

Lockheed knows, any sale to Pakistan has the potential to throw off much bigger Indian deals for good. A few hundred million dollar contract with Pakistan is not worth the bigger impact it will face in India.

And when India stiffed SAAB by dangling MRCA bait just so they stop selling products to Pakistan, and went for RAFAEL, mysteriously and silently Sweden allowed Pakistan not only to buy more but also the upgraded systems. We are seeing a similar trend with LM. F-21 is nearly flopped. LM knows they cant let the small fish go with the big fish.

 

[FuturePAF]

And when India stiffed SAAB by dangling MRCA bait just so they stop selling products to Pakistan, and went for RAFAEL, mysteriously and silently Sweden allowed Pakistan not only to buy more but also the upgraded systems. We are seeing a similar trend with LM. F-21 is nearly flopped. LM knows they cant let the small fish go with the big fish.

The PAF should working on getting at least a decent amount of the funds together to show LM (and the Trump administration) that it can pay for the V-upgrades, SLEP, and purchase used C/D models. The PA should be doing the same with Bell and the UH-1Y/AH-1Z and used models of each, to be show upgrades and refurbishments can be paid for ASAP. This should also be the approach with BAE systems and the RG-33L (6x6).

Even if the PAF can only get more F-16 airframes and “just” the Turkish upgrade, it should go for it, because these air frames can Soldier on for a while. The deferent effect of modernized F-16s (and re-establishing good Mil-Mil relations under the Trump Admin) against the Rafale can’t be discounted.

Btw, the PA should look into those mobile protected watchtowers. Looks like good value for money.

 

[Quwa]

The PAF should working on getting at least a decent amount of the funds together to show LM (and the Trump administration) that it can pay for the V-upgrades, SLEP, and purchase used C/D models. The PA should be doing the same with Bell and the UH-1Y/AH-1Z and used models of each, to be show upgrades and refurbishments can be paid for ASAP. This should also be the approach with BAE systems and the RG-33L (6x6).

Even if the PAF can only get more F-16 airframes and “just” the Turkish upgrade, it should go for it, because these air frames can Soldier on for a while. The deferent effect of modernized F-16s (and re-establishing good Mil-Mil relations under the Trump Admin) against the Rafale can’t be discounted.

Btw, the PA should look into those mobile protected watchtowers. Looks like good value for money.

This might be a stretch, but the PA can also leverage its utility helicopter needs as a way to get attention too. Perhaps offer to buy a large number of Bell 412Ms, like 100+.

Yes, 100+ units is a big amount, but the Bell 412M is very cost effective, and the PAA already has the core infrastructure to operate it via the Bell 412EP.

404

www.bellflight.com

Interestingly, Bell says it can even configure a naval variant with ASW/ASuW capabilities.

I'm not sure if license production could be had, but I'm sure a depot-level MRO centre, parts manufacturing, and maybe even some co-production could be had (albeit with the bulk of the work still taking place in America).

A deal like this could give Textron the incentive to lobby the release of the PAA's AH-1Zs.

 

[FuturePAF]

This might be a stretch, but the PA can also leverage its utility helicopter needs as a way to get attention too. Perhaps offer to buy a large number of Bell 412Ms, like 100+.

Yes, 100+ units is a big amount, but the Bell 412M is very cost effective, and the PAA already has the core infrastructure to operate it via the Bell 412EP.

404

www.bellflight.com

Interestingly, Bell says it can even configure a naval variant with ASW/ASuW capabilities.

I'm not sure if license production could be had, but I'm sure a depot-level MRO centre, parts manufacturing, and maybe even some co-production could be had (albeit with the bulk of the work still taking place in America).

A deal like this could give Textron the incentive to lobby the release of the PAA's AH-1Zs.

How much do you think 100+ Bell 412Ms cost? Would say $1 billion would be a good estimate of the minimum cost?

The Pakistani state needs a reset with America, post Afghan withdrawal, and some new common framework, and under Trump, Pakistan could get good terms, but it will have to dedicate the funds. Is the bandwidth of acquisitions wide enough that these kinds of deals could be squeezed in, or will some other programs, domestic or with other nations have to be pushed back? Such as the KAAN?

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[OakTree23]

And when India stiffed SAAB by dangling MRCA bait just so they stop selling products to Pakistan, and went for RAFAEL, mysteriously and silently Sweden allowed Pakistan not only to buy more but also the upgraded systems. We are seeing a similar trend with LM. F-21 is nearly flopped. LM knows they cant let the small fish go with the big fish.

This is what I was trying to explain to the Indian poster Ajay something.

And when those hawks feel free, then it'd only be a matter of time before Pakistan could possibly destabilize India's situation again. History is full of proof for this: 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s

I’m praying this occurs.

 

[OakTree23]

recieved HARMs too, but showing of these would set off some serious sirens accross the border- i say this because i have seen american intelligence reports about the PAF, citing HARMs in

What is the HARM again? And why did they sell it to Pakistan?

 

[Ak01]

What is the HARM again? And why did they sell it to Pakistan?

to pulverise indian ad counterterrorism ops

 

[Cookie Monster]

View attachment 98226
to pulverise indian ad counterterrorism ops

How credible is this that PAF has HARM?
Last I remember was that Pakistan acquiring anti radiation missiles from Brazil(and other sources like China)…at the time US had refused to sell HARM…this was many many years back. Of course a lot could have changed since then…and I’m not privy to any insider info.

 

[Quwa]

How much do you think 100+ Bell 412Ms cost? Would say $1 billion would be a good estimate of the minimum cost?

The Pakistani state needs a reset with America, post Afghan withdrawal, and some new common framework, and under Trump, Pakistan could get good terms, but it will have to dedicate the funds. Is the bandwidth of acquisitions wide enough that these kinds of deals could be squeezed in, or will some other programs, domestic or with other nations have to be pushed back? Such as the KAAN?

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Yep, around $1.5 B for 100+ units (not including long term support costs, which the ops budget would absorb anyways) is a pretty reasonable amount of money.

 

[Ak01]

How credible is this that PAF has HARM?
Last I remember was that Pakistan acquiring anti radiation missiles from Brazil(and other sources like China)…at the time US had refused to sell HARM…this was many many years back. Of course a lot could have changed since then…and I’m not privy to any insider info.

There was always rumors, then there is this Marine Corps Intelligence Activity handbook for their soldiers.

Marine Corps Intelligence Activity

 

[Yasser76]

Yep, around $1.5 B for 100+ units (not including long term support costs, which the ops budget would absorb anyways) is a pretty reasonable amount of money.

Why do we need 100 Bell 412s?

We have no dedicated Air Assault Brigade and it is not part of our conventional war doctrine. If for COIN Ops fine, but that is a lot to pay for COIN

 

[Quwa]

Why do we need 100 Bell 412s?

We have no dedicated Air Assault Brigade and it is not part of our conventional war doctrine. If for COIN Ops fine, but that is a lot to pay for COIN

They could replace the Pumas, older Hueys, and expand the rotary fleet for utility, troop transport, and air assault. Moreover, expanding the air assault element -- both for COIN and conventional ops -- is beneficial.

Having a dedicated force that can rapidly mobilize and engage COIN/CT threats would complicate matters for non-state actors. The latter typically plan and operate on the assumption that Pakistan is a lumbering giant.

So, they create issues quickly, exploit Pakistan's slow responses, and then quickly wind down when the response comes. However, a combo of more air assault forces, drones, wheeled artillery (esp. guided rockets), etc, can close the issue-to-response gap.

While not a conventional threat per se, I would treat Afghanistan as a real state-based threat. IMO, more expanded air mobility and assault capacity is a must to deter them as they largely rely on light and rapid movement on the border.

Finally, on the eastern front, we should start to pair the PAF's Swift Retort-type ops with an Army-led air assault capability. There's a real opportunity to build a concerted combined arms capacity, perhaps as a way to show India that Pakistan can also carry out a Cold Start-type maneuver.

 

[Cool_Soldier]

Something is cooking for old dead deal to be revived(F16 plus A1Z1)