I think you are exaggerating any US/Russia deal. One thing it is a Ribbertrop-Molotov Pact to split Ukraine in parts and other it is an Alliance. Did Hitler made any alliance with Stalin?.
In the Iranian context, it does not matter what happens to Ukrainian borders. What matters is that the current AIPAC-US is deeply sympathetic towards Russia ... the same Russia that started the war, got embroiled in it, and now seems to be coming out of it thanks to Trump. They will eventually re-establish their relations with Trump-US and the entire West where they have huge socio-economic incentives, and Iran has little to offer in comparison in the name of INSTC, Russia won't need Iranian drones or missiles anymore. Russia has nothing to gain from Iran while it has everything to gain from AIPAC-US. Russia technically never approved or sided with Iran in the Iranian clash with Israel-NATO-US-EU in the name of treacherous Sunni Arabs. History kinda repeating itself.
Regarding the Sukhois. How many Su35s would need RuAF to make up losses?, 12?, 16?.
RuAF have two priorities; 1 more Su 57s, and 2 more Su 34s.
Russia has lost 90+ jets in war, they need not only to replace these massive numbers of downed jets but also upgrade the squadrons who previously operated 3rd or 4.0 generation aircrafts since SU-25/24/27 or MIG-29/31 are no longer being built. Their option in 4+ generation is SU-30SM/35S or SU-57 for 5th gen. If Iranian order is indeed 50 x SU-35S then it will be completed by 2028-2030 at earliest.
Su30 and Su35 are assembly lines to divert in Su57 at medium term. But until that moment arrives, you need foreign customers. And the two only avaiable customers are North Korea and Iran.
I have already explained the political angle which takes priority over just defence economy. Iran has been betrayed by Russia before despite payments in case of MIG-29, MIG-31, SU-24 deal and later in S-300PMU2 saga. I am not even mentioning the betrayal of the nuclear deal.
At the rest I agree with your numbers. But I would include some Kowsars for advance trainers or OCU and Simorgh for medium airlift capacity.
5 Kowsars exist in 8 years and the last one they showed in Kish came with obsolete Saeghe's PESA radar, not its original Grifo-346 copy. Even if they re-new the project and somehow put out a miraculous yield of 12 airframes per year, the delivery of 70 airframes will be completed by 2030. Congratulations, Iran will have a fleet of borderline 4.0 gen light CAP-LIFT/CAS-AT in 2030.
If Trump offers Putin enough of the good stuff like unfreezing the Kremlins funds all over the world, allows Putin to seize the assets of countries that 'stole' from it, like luxury yachts etc., I would be nervous right now if I was Iran.
As you mentioned, Russia has done this to Iran three times already, with a 4th time likely on its doorstep.
For now the biggest gift Russia will get from Trump will be a strategic victory in Ukraine despite making horrible mistakes in the war. Trump is giving Russia this, Iran is not giving Russia anything.
The only possible exception that I see is if these two leaders agree that Russia supply, and continue to supply, 'vanilla' versions of arms to Iran.
This would enable Russia to save face viz-a-viz its current and future arms customers.
BUT, by doing this, the supply of 'vanilla' arms to Iran would likely ignite a rush for modern US arms to be sold all over the region up there. Thus, increased US exports, increased employment, increased funds flowing in, content voters and general populace, and last but not least, increased US control of what purchasers of its arms may or may not do with these.
Yup - you snooze you lose.
Piet.
Iran has enough capable local military-industrial complex to turn "vanilla" arms from Russia into much more capable systems. An example, SU-24, MIG-29 are probably old enough systems now that Russia may allow their transfer to Iran in their "vanilla" form and local industry can probably raise them to ALBM/ALCM firing SU-24MK2 or IADS linked MIG-29M interceptors. Look at F-4 Dowran capabilities matching JH-7 or Kowsar being FCK-1 equivalent no matter how little numbers exist. An IRIAF fully overhauled and armed FMC F-14AM can match SU-35S in air-air role (we can do a comparison). Same can be done to additional airframes of MIGs or Fencers from Russia. A fully locally upgraded fencer fleet with ALBMs/ALCMs means they can do same to Israel what IAF did over Iraqi airspace.
Iranian problem is lack of vision and incentive when it comes to manned combat aviation. These people will rather do a horse and pony show of plastic toys, and models in front of SL to get the $$ out and run away with it. The same can't be said about other branches offcourse where the intent is clear and they are now coming out with global-level products.
ideal would be our decision makers learn that Russia is not our friend and but some money in further developing kowsar and then adopt it
As AT+CAP+CAS+LIFT yes ... they should have done with the fleet by now to produce next gen crop of pilots but I feel the project is done and dusted if Yak numbers increase. Kowsar has become another Saeghe.
Good for a non-AESA radar. It was essentially on the job training. And definitely not something to be consigned to the dust bin of history.
First time I hear of an AESA longer-range version of AWG=9+. Do you have any further info on this. If Iran can fabricate such a longer-range radar, and even if this radar goes down with F-14 retirement proper, its tech should be trickled down to smaller, more manageable, proportions.
If you read my post, I was hypothesizing that if they can make bulk of giant GaN AESA radars at ground and SAIRAN chief was boosting airborne AESAs and we know decent upgradation of AWG-9 to APG-71 status then possibly a APG71-AESA variant can be made for unmanned AWACS for DASN in air. The rise of ALBMs, HGVs, attack drones is making the IADS search n track units more and more vulnerable so cheap but effective UCAV-AWACS is needed which is well within Iranian capabilities.
True about the increasing vulnerability of such UAV's to ever advancing SAM's. And of course the VLR AIM-174B AAM. The point you make about costs and no lives to lose is very valid.
If the search range is 600 KM they can operate within IADS. Besides, being cheap and unmanned, their loss is more tolerable compared to a Billion USD worth of manned AWACS being taken out by an enemy LR-BVR.
Lucky missile found new life in new role.