_Arabia_
Trusted Member
The end result is Ukraine losing around 25% of its territory (up to around 33.33% if all the 5 regions annexed/claimed by Russia will be a part of a peace deal), most of its coastline, strategic Crimea and most of their resource-rich lands.
As well as a gigantic demographic defeat (losing 8-10 million people) that will be almost impossible to bounce back from.
Russia on the other hand will be/is better off than Ukraine on the long run.
Only in 5-10 years time will it be known whether the Russian invasion was worth it from a Russian standpoint.
Anyway after the Ukraine question is settled (no NATO membership), my prediction is that Russia/Putin will annex Belarus completely next once Lukashenko dies. And given how pro-Russia Belarus is, to the extend that vast majority of locals don't even speak anything else than Russian, this will probably be another Crimea repeat.
Moldova is probably out of the question here due to geography, local antipathy. Could have been different had Russia had greater success in Ukraine. As of today and for the foreseeable future it is very unlikely.
Another future "expansion project" could be Northern Kazakhstan which is inhabited by millions of ethnic Russians. In this regard this might piss off the Chinese so I consider it unlikely as well but it would be my third step after Belarus if I was ruling Russia and wanted to expand at all costs.
As well as a gigantic demographic defeat (losing 8-10 million people) that will be almost impossible to bounce back from.
Russia on the other hand will be/is better off than Ukraine on the long run.
Only in 5-10 years time will it be known whether the Russian invasion was worth it from a Russian standpoint.
Anyway after the Ukraine question is settled (no NATO membership), my prediction is that Russia/Putin will annex Belarus completely next once Lukashenko dies. And given how pro-Russia Belarus is, to the extend that vast majority of locals don't even speak anything else than Russian, this will probably be another Crimea repeat.
Moldova is probably out of the question here due to geography, local antipathy. Could have been different had Russia had greater success in Ukraine. As of today and for the foreseeable future it is very unlikely.
Another future "expansion project" could be Northern Kazakhstan which is inhabited by millions of ethnic Russians. In this regard this might piss off the Chinese so I consider it unlikely as well but it would be my third step after Belarus if I was ruling Russia and wanted to expand at all costs.
