PAF F-16 | Discussions

[OakTree23]

Also, I agree, Pakistan needs an offensive option; its own cold -start. If the Indians know the war will not only be on our soil or at most on the border, but possibly deeper in their territory, the deterrence could be greater, and the desire to end hostile come sooner.

100%. I’ve been very vocal about this. Update the National strategy to have the decisive battles on their side of the borders. Waiting for the Indians to build up their armor strength to attack Pakistan first and then using tactical nukes on our precious people and lands in case if the Indian armor thrust achieves its objective in separating Pakistan at the north south axis is foolish. The Indians have already stated that even if nukes are used on their soldiers on the Pakistani side of the border, they will still attack all of Punjab with nuclear weapons.

Taking the war on their lands will ensure the destructions is over there, not in Pakistan.

At this point arming the Kashmiris and Khalastanis stealthily should be the priority as Indians are already arming folks in Pakistan to carry out targeting killings.

There has to be plans to have at least 500 nuke warheads to ensure every inch where an Indian breathes, lives, sh*ts will need to be cleanse by nuclear weapons. You just can’t let them come up on top in an uneven nuclear war. Efforts has to be made to wipe out their whole civilization from economy, clean drinking water, religion sites, ancient sites, cultural sites, and most importantly their farmlands which produces food.

The distribution needs to include “Tamil” lands too. Basically from north to south, east to west to ensure their civilization is severely crippled for the next 500 years.

Unfortunately, “Muslim” lands would also need to be targeted especially as the Indians have spread their filth to the Persian gulf too.

I advocate this as a Pakistani Samson option. Ensure not a single Hindu Indian survives in case of a war with Pakistan. We now Pakistan will cease to exist given the Indian strategy of using nukes on Pakistan.

 

[Quwa]

Yes, much of the current brass flew the F-16 A/B, next 2-3 CAS and many future Vice Air Marshals and Air Marshals will likely have F-16 C/D/MLU backgrounds. This and exposure to all the US training programmes means for next 10-15 years at least PAF will have a very heavy pro US element in it, not withstanding many good officers associated with the JF-17 programme. No harm in that, US systems and training are world class.

However as time goes by however many very competent officers associated with our new network capabilities, AEW set up, J-10/J-36 programmes etc will take over the helms, many of these officers may well have been trained in UK/Aus/China instead of US, by that time too F-16 will be relegated to second line.

I think PAF are going through the same ideological/ training / cultural / technical shift they went through in 1950s, where we went from essentially a "Mini RAF" to a "Mini USAF"

Now we seem to be transitioning to sort of hybrid Pak/China/Euro model.

I'd say that the "pro-US" element in the PAF is all but done by now. ACM Sohail Aman made a big move by dropping the 8 Block-52s after the U.S. pulled FMF. AHQ had used the FMF episode as a litmus test to see where things in America were heading. When the US cut FMF, the PAF itself had dropped plans to buy S-70is and, instead, went to Leonardo for the AW139s. Then, after the 2019 skirmish, the PAF signed a purported $1.5 billion USD deal with China for 20 J-10CEs.

Yes, the Chinese provided a loan for the J-10CEs, but at the end of the day, it's still national money being used. That money could've easily gone to the U.S. for 12~18 Block-72s, but AHQ isn't going to stomach putting their scarce funds at risk in the U.S. From ACM Aman to ACM Khan to even ACM Sidhu, the PAF's instincts push to avoid spending its own money in the U.S.

IMO, this is probably the consensus across the PAF leadership, even among the 'pro-US' types. Ultimately, the 'pro-US' types in the PAF are more of the view of leveraging what they deem to be the best bang for the buck (i.e., F-16s). However, when the supply channel is not reliable, they'll look elsewhere.

If anything, I feel the surprising thing is that the current ACM suddenly dropped the J-31 (or J-35AE) on the scene. Perhaps the consensus is on to find a successor to the F-16A/Bs to replace in the 2030s, but not everyone necessarily agrees with pursuing the J-31/J-35AE.

So, if there's a risk for change in the PAF's plans after ACM Sidhu, it might be that the next AHQ releases an open bid so that the Typhoon can compete for the planned slot the J-31/-35AE has apparently won. Remember: Airbus DS showed up to IDEAS 2024, their catalog is basically just 4 products -- Typhoon, C295, A330 MRTT, and the A400M. Then you got the COAS visiting the UK, and, now especially, Germany wanting to ramp up its defence industry. Plus you got KSA, Qatar, Oman, and Turkiye operating the Typhoon (i.e., there's a distributed user base). @arslank01

Doubt the F-16 will be retired until it literally has to be. Until then, gradually it will be moved to rear duty, as its technology gets superseded, should we have the economic means to supplant it with more modern platforms, where only finances are the limitations to acquisition.

We have to remember what happened to countries like Venezuela, when their politics have run afoul of the US, or even Iraq when maintenance support is limited or cutoff.

The PA Should take this as an opportunity to pivot to built COIN capabilities (tactical and operational capabilities of military units); buy Sniper XR pods for the F-16s from the US, as well as have the PA look to buy 3000-4000 of MRAPs as excess defense articles for $150-200 million, as well as seek those AH-1Z and Buy some Bell 412Ms. Put in a word with Trump that these purchases are contingent of the US influencing any neighboring countries friendly to America, to lay off supporting insurgents in Pakistan, and Pakistan will open up mining deals with the US as well.

Shift Pak-US relations to building our economy, and supporting Pakistani COIN in the unique ways only the US can.

Leave the future Fighter acquisitions to China, Turkey, and domestic industry. Fighter acquisitions from the US are set to end with the F-16, just like they ended with France with the Mirage 3/5.

As I said earlier... I like the idea of creating a new serivce arm, the National Guard, with integrated air, land, and sea branches. Give the Guard the mandate to focus on COIN/CT, HADR, etc., and transfer all American-origin weapons there, e.g., F-16C/D Block-52, Bell-412EPs, etc., and pine for new ones like AH-1Z, Bell-412Ms, etc. You cannot make it any clearer for them that their hardware is being used exclusively for COIN/CT when you raise an entire service arm for it.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I'd say that the "pro-US" element in the PAF is all but done by now. ACM Sohail Aman made a big move by dropping the 8 Block-52s after the U.S. pulled FMF. AHQ had used the FMF episode as a litmus test to see where things in America were heading. When the US cut FMF, the PAF itself had dropped plans to buy S-70is and, instead, went to Leonardo for the AW139s. Then, after the 2019 skirmish, the PAF signed a purported $1.5 billion USD deal with China for 20 J-10CEs.

Yes, the Chinese provided a loan for the J-10CEs, but at the end of the day, it's still national money being used. That money could've easily gone to the U.S. for 12~18 Block-72s, but AHQ isn't going to stomach putting their scarce funds at risk in the U.S. From ACM Aman to ACM Khan to even ACM Sidhu, the PAF's instincts push to avoid spending its own money in the U.S.

IMO, this is probably the consensus across the PAF leadership, even among the 'pro-US' types. Ultimately, the 'pro-US' types in the PAF are more of the view of leveraging what they deem to be the best bang for the buck (i.e., F-16s). However, when the supply channel is not reliable, they'll look elsewhere.

If anything, I feel the surprising thing is that the current ACM suddenly dropped the J-31 (or J-35AE) on the scene. Perhaps the consensus is on to find a successor to the F-16A/Bs to replace in the 2030s, but not everyone necessarily agrees with pursuing the J-31/J-35AE.

So, if there's a risk for change in the PAF's plans after ACM Sidhu, it might be that the next AHQ releases an open bid so that the Typhoon can compete for the planned slot the J-31/-35AE has apparently won.

Any ACM that proposes that a 4.5 gen platform (regardless of how good it is ) can be a substitute for a 5th Gen stealth platform, should not remain as an ACM at all. There is no logic from a technical perspective for that type of switch of platforms to something that is non-stealth.

As I said earlier... I like the idea of creating a new serivce arm, the National Guard, with integrated air, land, and sea branches. Give the Guard the mandate to focus on COIN/CT, HADR, etc., and transfer all American-origin weapons there, e.g., F-16C/D Block-52, Bell-412EPs, etc., and pine for new ones like AH-1Z, Bell-412Ms, etc. You cannot make it any clearer for them that their hardware is being used exclusively for COIN/CT when you raise an entire service arm for it.

Not sure Pakistan has enough spare cash to 'not use' American systems as a front-tier in its defence. The restrictions on use, were on the new F16 Block 52s at the time of sale, and not the rest of the F16 fleet if i recall correctly. Additionally, I fail to see the value of "pining" for AH-1Z, Bell-412Ms given we know the restrictions on use. Why not spend the money on WZ-10s that can be used freely without restrictions on both the Indians and terrorists, then creating a 2 tier separate fleet ? If Pakistan doesn't think the Turks can come up with the goods on the T129/929 platforms in terms of engines then go for the WZ-10s? What does the AH-1Z's offer that is "soo important to procure" to use solely against Terrorists? Is that no a mismatch of requirements versus tooling for those requirements?

 

[Quwa]

Any ACM that proposes that a 4.5 gen platform (regardless of how good it is ) can be a substitute for a 5th Gen stealth platform, should not remain as an ACM at all. There is no logic from a technical perspective for that type of switch of platforms to something that is non-stealth.



Not sure Pakistan has enough spare cash to 'not use' American systems as a front-tier in its defence. The restrictions on use, were on the new F16 Block 52s at the time of sale, and not the rest of the F16 fleet if i recall correctly. Additionally, I fail to see the value of "pining" for AH-1Z, Bell-412Ms given we know the restrictions on use. Why not spend the money on WZ-10s that can be used freely without restrictions on both the Indians and terrorists, then creating a 2 tier separate fleet ? If Pakistan doesn't think the Turks can come up with the goods on the T129/929 platforms in terms of engines then go for the WZ-10s? What does the AH-1Z's offer that is "soo important to procure" to use solely against Terrorists? Is that no a mismatch of requirements versus tooling for those requirements?

Re: the 'National Guard.' If there's a war, it can be absorbed into the military for conventional ops.

Re: the AH-1Z. It's best in class as far as attack helicopters go. PAA pilots and engineers alike both told me that it's sand-proofing, ruggedness, heat tolerance, cold tolerance, hot-and-high, etc., are all up there (with the Apache as its main rival from a raw performance standpoint).

The AH-1Z is also one of those systems that, while hard to procure, is easier to maintain as many of its parts draw on widely available commercial or military users (like the T700 engines).

Moreover, the PAA values the S-70i and Bell-412 highly for these reasons too. Yes, at one level, it's easier to buy a European or Chinese helicopter, but spare parts and maintenance is a whole other ballgame. Thanks to their incredible scale and global adoption, the US choppers -- be it Huey or Black Hawk-based -- are relatively easy and cost-effective to fly, even with US controls in the picture. There's one other Z-10 user with WZ-10 engines, but hundreds of T700 users.

We often get caught up in the first phase of the procurement lifecycle. There, yes, US hardware is tough to get, and Chinese or European items are easier. However, when you get into the middle of the lifecycle, it gets murky:

For example, can we get spares on time for a cutting-edge Chinese fighter that is exponentially more demanding from a maintenance standpoint than anything they sold to the market before? What if, in a war, some hiccup happens in the AVIC factory and our J-35AEs get grounded because the right parts don't meet QA? Moreover, with the J-10CE and J-35AE, China is literally the only other user. In other words, we live and die by their terms, and for now, it's the fact that the US is being very aggressive towards them that they're working with us. That can change!

The Typhoon -- or even F-16 -- at least have other users who, potentially, can send us some help under the table. Or, heck, even over the table if the geopolitical situation demands it. For example, the U.S. has upended the idea that it'd guarantee anyone's security (see Ukraine). Then Central Asia is also turning to Europe and is now poised to buy their fighters in the medium-term, especially Kazakhstan.

Finally, and a big factor for AHQ, are payment terms... The main reason why they couldn't get the Rafale back in the mid-2000s or Typhoon up until now is that no one trusted Pakistan with a multi-billion-dollar defence loan. Through the 1990s, the French Finance Ministry would tell the President or Prime Minister to get lost each time they'd lobby for a loan for a PAF M2K-5 purchase.

However, with America upending its own rules and guarantees, Europe might be a little more desperate for sales. A loan can kick-start a sale and, in turn, help generate production activity for their workers, drive economies-of-scale, and start accelerating their industries.

So, if the UK comes to AHQ and says, "Here's a $10 billion USD loan..." I doubt AHQ is going to look the other way.

 

[Yasser76]

I'd say that the "pro-US" element in the PAF is all but done by now. ACM Sohail Aman made a big move by dropping the 8 Block-52s after the U.S. pulled FMF. AHQ had used the FMF episode as a litmus test to see where things in America were heading. When the US cut FMF, the PAF itself had dropped plans to buy S-70is and, instead, went to Leonardo for the AW139s. Then, after the 2019 skirmish, the PAF signed a purported $1.5 billion USD deal with China for 20 J-10CEs.

Yes, the Chinese provided a loan for the J-10CEs, but at the end of the day, it's still national money being used. That money could've easily gone to the U.S. for 12~18 Block-72s, but AHQ isn't going to stomach putting their scarce funds at risk in the U.S. From ACM Aman to ACM Khan to even ACM Sidhu, the PAF's instincts push to avoid spending its own money in the U.S.

IMO, this is probably the consensus across the PAF leadership, even among the 'pro-US' types. Ultimately, the 'pro-US' types in the PAF are more of the view of leveraging what they deem to be the best bang for the buck (i.e., F-16s). However, when the supply channel is not reliable, they'll look elsewhere.

If anything, I feel the surprising thing is that the current ACM suddenly dropped the J-31 (or J-35AE) on the scene. Perhaps the consensus is on to find a successor to the F-16A/Bs to replace in the 2030s, but not everyone necessarily agrees with pursuing the J-31/J-35AE.

So, if there's a risk for change in the PAF's plans after ACM Sidhu, it might be that the next AHQ releases an open bid so that the Typhoon can compete for the planned slot the J-31/-35AE has apparently won. Remember: Airbus DS showed up to IDEAS 2024, their catalog is basically just 4 products -- Typhoon, C295, A330 MRTT, and the A400M. Then you got the COAS visiting the UK, and, now especially, Germany wanting to ramp up its defence industry. Plus you got KSA, Qatar, Oman, and Turkiye operating the Typhoon (i.e., there's a distributed user base). @arslank01


As I said earlier... I like the idea of creating a new serivce arm, the National Guard, with integrated air, land, and sea branches. Give the Guard the mandate to focus on COIN/CT, HADR, etc., and transfer all American-origin weapons there, e.g., F-16C/D Block-52, Bell-412EPs, etc., and pine for new ones like AH-1Z, Bell-412Ms, etc. You cannot make it any clearer for them that their hardware is being used exclusively for COIN/CT when you raise an entire service arm for it.

Good summing up, but (apart from the logistic factors you mentioned) would we want Typhoon instead of J-35?

 

[Quwa]

Good summing up, but (apart from the logistic factors you mentioned) would we want Typhoon instead of J-35?

You'd be surprised, but loans and payment terms play a role. I suspect a big reason why the J-35AE is on the table is because Beijing's offering a great loan package. OTOH, if the UK comes up with also a good package, then they'd consider it.

Whether the Typhoon would win or not is another story, but the PAF would definitely take it seriously if a loan package was on offer. Once the money is lined up, you have other factors too, e.g., mature platform, used by other air forces, potential geo-political opportunity to get PAF officers into post-retirement contracting work in the Gulf (thereby increase Pakistani influence in their security affairs), multiple sources for spare parts, etc.

Some in AHQ will definitely think along those lines when evaluating the platforms.

Likewise, others might not be cool with any other new platform. Instead, they'd prefer to keep building up the J-10CE fleet and, when available, evaluate the J-35AE against the KAAN properly. In fact, my assessment is that the pre-ACM Sidhu plan was to keep buying J-10CEs and then transition to the KAAN.

 

[Waterboy]

You'd be surprised, but loans and payment terms play a role. I suspect a big reason why the J-35AE is on the table is because Beijing's offering a great loan package. OTOH, if the UK comes up with also a good package, then they'd consider it.

Whether the Typhoon would win or not is another story, but the PAF would definitely take it seriously if a loan package was on offer. Once the money is lined up, you have other factors too, e.g., mature platform, used by other air forces, potential geo-political opportunity to get PAF officers into post-retirement contracting work in the Gulf (thereby increase Pakistani influence in their security affairs), multiple sources for spare parts, etc.

Some in AHQ will definitely think along those lines when evaluating the platforms.

Likewise, others might not be cool with any other new platform. Instead, they'd prefer to keep building up the J-10CE fleet and, when available, evaluate the J-35AE against the KAAN properly.

All of this still does not justify buying a 4.5 gen aircraft.

 

[Quwa]

All of this still does not justify buying a 4.5 gen aircraft.

AHQ doesn't think in terms of only "5th gen vs 4.5 gen."

For the PAF, what matters is the performance, capabilities, and serviceability of the fighter. If the 5th-gen option doesn't meet any one of those, the PAF will default to buying more of a jet it already operates, like the J-10CE or JF-17, until such time the next-gen option is ready. Or, if the money permits, get a mature high-performance option that will work in war.

Right now, the issue isn't '5th gen vs 4.5 gen' but finding a good platform for offensive ops. The J-35AE is realistically the best option and, for all intents and purposes, the only one available.

But the last thing the PAF wants is grounding its fleet of 5th gen jets because of an unforeseen technical issue that needs ironing out.

 

[agidest]

potential geo-political opportunity to get PAF officers into post-retirement contracting work in the Gulf (thereby increase Pakistani influence in their security affairs),

Do you think it is possible India will try and pull on this cord in the future with let's say the Rafale in the Middle East?

India has traditionally always shied away from military partnerships in Middle East. But with Indian and Middle Eastern economic collaboration and integration happening at a rapid pace, I wonder if they will try to cross over into military spheres.

 

[Quwa]

Do you think it is possible India will try and pull on this cord in the future with let's say the Rafale in the Middle East?

India has traditionally always shied away from military partnerships in Middle East. But with Indian and Middle Eastern economic collaboration and integration happening at a rapid pace, I wonder if they will try to cross over into military spheres.

Yes, absolutely.

 

[agidest]

Yes, absolutely.

What makes you say so?

I ask because of the following
1. India likes to stay away from their internal rivalries where Pakistan meshes in better
2. Pakistan military being somewhat entrenched already creating an entry barrier
3. For the Arabs, Pakistan is an existing reliable supplier

 

[Quwa]

What makes you say so?

I ask because of the following
1. India likes to stay away from their internal rivalries where Pakistan meshes in better
2. Pakistan military being somewhat entrenched already creating an entry barrier
3. For the Arabs, Pakistan is an existing reliable supplier

For India, it's not just about Pakistan (though a factor), but the longstanding desire to be one of the big players in the world.

So, from a practical standpoint, closer security ties with the Gulf is a priority. Those ties could occur through the supply of certain arms (e.g., BrahMos), joint-ventures involving Indian R&D, and through operational integration via common arms.

That said, the "barriers" in the Gulf security apparatus have less to do with Pakistan and more with the countries there wanting to keep clear lines of demarcation between citizens and expatriates.

These days, the latter are generally hired as contractors to help augment their ops more so than drive things as a whole (which was the case in the past).

One reason for this is to start lowering reliance on foreigners and to also prevent outside intelligence agencies from doing their thing in their lands.

I can speak to Qatar (personal experience), but in the 1970s and 1980s, you had PAF officers on direct deputation there, and they had a real say in the QEAF. Then in the 1990s, you had these retired PAF officers serving as basically civilian advisors or consultants. They still had a say, but in very specific areas as defined by the QEAF leadership. Today, you have retired PAF officers as Qatari MoD contractors whose job is to do specific things and meet set KPIs, that's it.

Retired Indian officers would pretty much end up in the same situation, IMO.

However, for the PAF, the goal behind securing post-retirement jobs overseas is, literally, just that. Pakistan's in rough shape, and the pension system there can only get you so far against inflation and stuff. There's no grand thinking behind it these days.

 

[agidest]

For India, it's not just about Pakistan (though a factor), but the longstanding desire to be one of the big players in the world.

So, from a practical standpoint, closer security ties with the Gulf is a priority. Those ties could occur through the supply of certain arms (e.g., BrahMos), joint-ventures involving Indian R&D, and through operational integration via common arms.

That said, the "barriers" in the Gulf security apparatus have less to do with Pakistan and more with the countries there wanting to keep clear lines of demarcation between citizens and expatriates.

These days, the latter are generally hired as contractors to help augment their ops more so than drive things as a whole (which was the case in the past).

One reason for this is to start lowering reliance on foreigners and to also prevent outside intelligence agencies from doing their thing in their lands.

I can speak to Qatar (personal experience), but in the 1970s and 1980s, you had PAF officers on direct deputation there, and they had a real say in the QEAF. Then in the 1990s, you had these retired PAF officers serving as basically civilian advisors or consultants. They still had a say, but in very specific areas as defined by the QEAF leadership. Today, you have retired PAF officers as Qatari MoD contractors whose job is to do specific things and meet set KPIs, that's it.

Retired Indian officers would pretty much end up in the same situation, IMO.

However, for the PAF, the goal behind securing post-retirement jobs overseas is, literally, just that. Pakistan's in rough shape, and the pension system there can only get you so far against inflation and stuff. There's no grand thinking behind it these days.

This was very insightful. Thank you.

Indeed, more than one Middle Eastern country is in discussions about BrahMos while India is considering UAE firm owned Carbine for an Indian Army tender. So there are conversations happening, i just assumed them to be limited to 'products' and not 'services'.

 

[Waterboy]

AHQ doesn't think in terms of only "5th gen vs 4.5 gen."

For the PAF, what matters is the performance, capabilities, and serviceability of the fighter. If the 5th-gen option doesn't meet any one of those, the PAF will default to buying more of a jet it already operates, like the J-10CE or JF-17, until such time the next-gen option is ready. Or, if the money permits, get a mature high-performance option that will work in war.

Right now, the issue isn't '5th gen vs 4.5 gen' but finding a good platform for offensive ops. The J-35AE is realistically the best option and, for all intents and purposes, the only one available.

But the last thing the PAF wants is grounding its fleet of 5th gen jets because of an unforeseen technical issue that needs ironing out.

India will field f35 in coming years. Typhon honestly would be scrap metal in front of it.

 

[FuturePAF]

100%. I’ve been very vocal about this. Update the National strategy to have the decisive battles on their side of the borders. Waiting for the Indians to build up their armor strength to attack Pakistan first and then using tactical nukes on our precious people and lands in case if the Indian armor thrust achieves its objective in separating Pakistan at the north south axis is foolish. The Indians have already stated that even if nukes are used on their soldiers on the Pakistani side of the border, they will still attack all of Punjab with nuclear weapons.

Taking the war on their lands will ensure the destructions is over there, not in Pakistan.

At this point arming the Kashmiris and Khalastanis stealthily should be the priority as Indians are already arming folks in Pakistan to carry out targeting killings.

There has to be plans to have at least 500 nuke warheads to ensure every inch where an Indian breathes, lives, sh*ts will need to be cleanse by nuclear weapons. You just can’t let them come up on top in an uneven nuclear war. Efforts has to be made to wipe out their whole civilization from economy, clean drinking water, religion sites, ancient sites, cultural sites, and most importantly their farmlands which produces food.

The distribution needs to include “Tamil” lands too. Basically from north to south, east to west to ensure their civilization is severely crippled for the next 500 years.

Unfortunately, “Muslim” lands would also need to be targeted especially as the Indians have spread their filth to the Persian gulf too.

I advocate this as a Pakistani Samson option. Ensure not a single Hindu Indian survives in case of a war with Pakistan. We now Pakistan will cease to exist given the Indian strategy of using nukes on Pakistan.

IMHO, The strategy has to be more surgical and using other elements of D.I.M.E. the what you stated. Also counter-value targeting has to be “surgical” (such as a focus on populations politically close to enemy leadership, not the whole population) and redundant to ensure deterrence is achieved. But very much agree at least 500 nukes are necessary to cover all possible contingencies.