This is what I project:
- The Islamic Republic will fall after a series of assassinations, internal sabotage from CIA-Mossad moles in the Sepah and leadership, and a combined aerial attack that dismantles Iran's air defense, nuclear facilities and missile program. Iran will vainly attempt to fight back and a nuke will be dropped on one of Iran's unimportant cities. In this time, Azerbaijan, Turkiye and the Kurds will make military moves and push back Iranian forces, holding significant parts of territory. Many Iranian soldiers- to the surprise of most Iranians- will drop their weapons and surrender, seeing it futile to go up against such a coalition, and having a weak sense of national identity.
- Reza Pahlavi will return, in exchange for investment in Iran and peace, he will offer multiple northern provinces to Aliyev, give the Kurds autonomy like the KRG, allow the establishment of U.S. bases in Ahvaz and make it an autonomous region. He will also make Balochistan an autonomous region and give some land to Turkmenistan as well. Iran will be turned into a limp-wristed constitutional monarchy and federation, losing or losing central control over 1/4 of its territory.
- Iranians in the diaspora will engage in all sorts of mental theatrics to justify the loss of territorial integrity. In a few decades, Iranians will look back at the Islamic Republic with nostalgia, dreaming of a time when Iran was strong, whole, and assertive.
- In time, the KRG will secede as will Rojhelat and Rojava, and create a Kurdish state. Balochistan will probably secede in a few decades.
- The Pahlavid rump state will exist, adopt the golden straightjacket, Westernize, but be very poor, not allowed to sell oil on its own terms, constantly being threatened with Ahwazi secession if it asserts its authority.
- Hundreds of thousands of Iranians, possibly up to one million, will suffer the effects of radiation. If the war is quick, casualties may be around 100,000.
- People like
@Mr Iran Eye will keep in denial until the very end.