Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[hyperman]

Unless Turkey is prepared to put soliders, and airdefences before it attempts a renovation(which it was attempting to do, which Israel destroyed, and there is a question mark on if Turkish citizens died in those attacks or not"), or a "rebuild" from previous Israel attacks, then it is pointless ... as Israel will simply destory anything that Turkey does.

Which is why the Turkish approach is step by step. I keep hearing this talk about T4, and no one talks about Menagh Air Base which is also in Syria. Which Turkey is already deployed in, which already has a Short range Hisar A system deployed there, which Turkey is renovating.

Btw, no Turks were killed, it was a rumor, and since that random tweet no further information has come out, so its likely incorrect reporting.

 

[Ali_Baba]

no Turks were killed, it was a rumor, and since that random tweet no further information has come out, so its likely incorrect reporting.

Good/cool on that news.

 

[hyperman]

The Main objectives right now are the Withdrawal of the United States from Syria as well as the Disbanding of the PKK in Syria. Israel opposes both these moves, as it sees US presence in Syria serving its interests, as well as the PKK as a potential proxy to serve its interests. So it opposes both these moves.

So the question becomes does a direct confrontation of Turkey with Israel aid these objectives or does it make them less likely. Is the United States more likely to Stay in Syria if there is direct conflict of Turkey with Israel, or less likely? Will the Zionist lobby try to make the US stay to counterbalance and limit Turkey? The Answer is yes.

The PKK currently is being forced to reconcile with Damascus and in the process of dissolving, will a Turkish Hot Conflict with Israel aid this effort? or will they offer a lifeline to the PKK to not have to dissolve and break off integration from Damascus? And Try to build a separatist state under the patronage of Israel and the Israeli lobby in Washington?

There is also the factor of what happens of if there is a conflict between the US and Iran, do we expect it to just be Iran? no, b/c in all likelyhood any attack on Iran will activate PMUs in Iraq, which will likely go into conflict with US troops in Iraq as well as Syria.

The smart play here is to move slowly but diligently, and not overcommit, and observe the surroundings, while continuing to build up capacity. Which Turkey is doing. Wait to see what happens between Iran and the US. Wait to see how this US withdrawal from Syria goes, wait for the PKK to continue its withdrawal and dissolution.

If there is an opening in the future, act on it, if the PKK matter is taking too long or the PKK is refusing to dissolving and stalling for time, there are options for an intervention. but those elements are jeopardized if there is an immediate confrontation with the Israelis and you are bogged down.

 

[Foinikas]

Turkey shot down a Russian Jet, you think Turkey is scared of Israel or something? lol

And Erdogan ended up apologizing,cooperating with Russia and somehow with S-400s that eventually got Turkey kicked out of the F-35 program.

There is also a bigger difference. If Russia had declared war against Turkey,Erdogan would count on NATO to help. However,NATO might even turn on Turkey in case there's a war with Israel.

Do you know how much Opportunity Cost Russia took, b/c it bogged itself down in Ukraine, It suffered on other fronts, in Syria, in Karabakh, even in Africa. The smart move is to wait,

Lol wait for what? Gaza has been turned to rubble,Lebanon was always weak and now with Hizbollah significantly destroyed it's hardly a threat. Libya is gone,Morocco is friendly,Egypt is neutral,Saudi Arabia-UAE-Kuwait-Qatar won't do anything,Azerbaijan is friendly,Assad's Syria is gone and along with it Iranian presence in the area. Iraq's been sidelined. We've been reading countless threads here of how much of a regional superpower Turkey is and how much of a muscle they have. And all you get is "The smart move is to wait". You're not fooling me,you're fooling yourself.

And that takes us to

Why are you so eager Foinikas, I'm sure you would love for Turkey to commit to a Hot War with israel immedetly for Greece's own strategic interests and have Turkish resources diverted from other fronts, but Turkey won't make your wishes come true, Turkey has a strategy in mind and is diligently carrying it out.

Of course it would be geopolitically in our favor to see Turkey and Israel go to war. Provided there's not a nuclear war coming with that. But this is not the point at all.

The point in this whole thing is,Turkey's bravado and warmongering rhetoric coupled with all the propaganda of a superpower army and big defence exports country is contrasted by inactivity when it comes to Israel. There's bullying and provocative rhetorics when it comes to countries like Greece,Cyprus,Armenia,Assadist Syria,even Egypt...imagine,even Egypt...and when it comes to Israel it's all "sssh they have a strategy".

If Turkey was the regional power propagated by Erdogan and the AKP party the last 5-6 years,they would have barged in,set up bases and AA equipment and send clear warnings like "Anyone who tries to prevent us from establishing a base will be shot down" etc.

For years I kept reading here about the super AWACs and the data-linked warfare and superior weapons that only a few have in the world. And now you the IAF bombing here and there in Syria and Turks not even daring to fly F-16s and say "Burada bizim Suriye".

It does not owe you anything.

What's that fanboyish quote now? You just throw these extremely fanboyish quotes as if I'm talking about your gf or something.

 

[hyperman]

Of course it would be geopolitically in our favor to see Turkey and Israel go to war. Provided there's not a nuclear war coming with that. But this is not the point at all.

That is precisely the point. Why would Turkey facilitate Greek interests at its detriment? I literally wrote several times about opportunity cost and being bogged down and that having negative consequences in other Theatres Turkey is involved in.

Again, like I said, Turkey does not owe you anything. It doesn't owe Iranian trolls anything, it doesn't owe the opportunist Greek goading Turkey into a conflict hoping for geopolitical benefit anything, It owes no one.

The matter of Syria and Turkey is strictly between Syria and Turkey, and I don't see any Syrians here complaining, nor do I see the Syrian govt requesting anything that Turkey is denying them. There is a strategy at play here, and its nobody's business but the Turks, and also the Syrians it concerns.

 

[Oublious]

Unless Turkey is prepared to put soliders, and active air defences on the airground at bases it wants to use, and IADS systems it is prepared to actively use(fire) against Israel, before it attempts a renovation(which it was attempting to do, which Israel destroyed, and there is a question mark on if Turkish citizens died in those attacks or not"), or a "rebuild" from previous Israel attacks, then it is pointless to talk about this ... as Israel will simply destory anything that Turkey does. Right now, Israel acts freely in Syria to do what it wants, and that tells you all you need to know about where the actual balance of power lies.

We don't have hast to fill the airbases, we are not America we do not have that much airdefence systems. It will take time, rational zionists they called ther goverment to watch out what they are doing. This is not Iran or other neighbours country you want to attack.

They now ther place, this was nothing more then a act to lure us against Americans or EU. Believe me before we go ther we will fill the airbases in the Northside. After that when we have enough airdefence systems we will go near Damascus.

 

[Foinikas]

Again, like I said, Turkey does not owe you anything. It doesn't owe Iranian trolls anything, it doesn't owe the opportunist Greek goading Turkey into a conflict hoping for geopolitical benefit anything, It owes no one.

What's this fanboyism again? What does what I or you or anyone else here want,have to do with Turkey's mild reaction to Israeli actions in Syria?

Why are you being so dramatic about it?

 

[hyperman]

What's this fanboyism again? What does what I or you or anyone else here want,have to do with Turkey's mild reaction to Israeli actions in Syria?

Why are you being so dramatic about it?

Well its clear you are attempting to goad and even mock, I'm simply pointing it out.

What Turkey is doing is methodical not something done via emotion. Sorry if thats not satisfying enough for you. But the axiom here is Turkish interests not the satisfaction and approval of randos on the internet.

 

[Foinikas]

Well its clear you are attempting to goad and even mock, I'm simply pointing it out.

What Turkey is doing is methodical not something done via emotion. Sorry if thats not satisfying enough for you. But the axiom here is Turkish interests not the satisfaction and approval of randos on the internet.

It's methodical...right.

 

[hyperman]

It's methodical...right.

Of Course.

It takes Time and Effort and Preparation and Planning.

Those Byzantine Walls didn't melt in a day, you gotto prepare the Cannon, gotto prepare for the Ships to Cross over Land... err I mean Air Defense. lol

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[hyperman]

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[mulj]

We don't have hast to fill the airbases, we are not America we do not have that much airdefence systems. It will take time, rational zionists they called ther goverment to watch out what they are doing. This is not Iran or other neighbours country you want to attack.

They now ther place, this was nothing more then a act to lure us against Americans or EU. Believe me before we go ther we will fill the airbases in the Northside. After that when we have enough airdefence systems we will go near Damascus.

This below is sound opinion and assessment, problem with AD is that zios would use ABL for high value targets, so either you need air born units constantly in the air or ABD systems deployed which Turkiye does not have, i think radars and SHORADS along infrastructure will be deployed only for while.

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[Foinikas]

Of Course.

It takes Time and Effort and Preparation and Planning.

Those Byzantine Walls didn't melt in a day, you gotto prepare the Cannon, gotto prepare for the Ships to Cross over Land... err I mean Air Defense. lol

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Watching trashy propaganda films now? Ertugrul fan indeed.

Ok,sir. Turkey is methodical.

 

[hyperman]

Watching trashy propaganda films now? Ertugrul fan indeed.

Ok,sir. Turkey is methodical.

Its a silly response to a troll comment.

 

[Sinan]

This below is sound opinion and assessment, problem with AD is that zios would use ABL for high value targets, so either you need air born units constantly in the air or ABD systems deployed which Turkiye does not have, i think radars and SHORADS along infrastructure will be deployed only for while.

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Anıl Şahin is nobody.

He was just a forumer on the other site, he opened a website and pushed his shitty articles. Apparently his relatives has connection with AKP, and he has granted some access and that's it.

His assessment is shit too... Let's not protect the Turkish soldiers that would be stationed there... because if we protect them they will be high value target....what kind of a stupid assessment it is.

We shouldn't try to establish any base in Syria until we become on par with Israeli Airforce and produce air defense systems in meaningful numbers.